Los Angeles Dodgers Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Los Angeles Dodgers Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 44

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 9

OPTIONS: None

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 4; Jackson Ferris, Christian Zazueta, Adam Serwinowki, Luke Fox

BROCK STEWART (5.093): $1,650,000 ($350k raise)

The Case: Stewart spent 99 days on the IL and finished with 9 HLD, 1 SV and a 2.70 ERA.

José Cisnero (2022, $387.5K raise) is the best comparison after a similarly injury-limited season with a comparable number of games and a 1.08 ERA. Stewart worked in higher leverage, but Cisnero had the quality advantage and came from a higher previous salary. I project Stewart slightly below Cisnero at a $350k raise, bringing his total salary to $1.65M.

Tender Prediction: Stewart will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JAKE COUSINS (4.091): $950,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Cousins signed a $950k free-agent contract before missing the entire 2026 season with injury. Dillon Tate (2023, $0 raise) provides the same full-season injury precedent. I project a $0 raise, resulting in a $950k total salary.

Tender Prediction: I expect Cousins to remain with the Dodgers on a pre-tender split deal. He threw on rehab in September, still has an option year remaining, and that flexibility is useful for an often-injured Dodgers bullpen. While Cousins has not pitched in the majors since 2024, adding a P2 salary in the split deal lowers the club’s risk considerably. Pre-Tender.

ALEX CALL (3.161): $2,000,000 ($400k raise)

The Case: Call totaled 195 PA with 1 HR and a 91 wRC+ in a healthy season.

Tommy La Stella (2018, $400k raise) provides the strongest direct historical comparison. La Stella totaled 192 PA with 1 HR and 23 RBI in his platform season, giving the two nearly identical bulk, power and run production. Call’s statline is almost identical to La Stella’s, making La Stella’s $400k raise the clearest historical placement point.

Nick Allen (2026, $350k proj. raise) is a useful current-class comparison after 162 PA, 3 HR and a 103 wRC+. Call’s healthy season gives him the slight advantage over Allen and supports a $400k raise, bringing his total salary to $2M.

Tender Prediction: Call will likely be tendered a contract. The Dodgers are still extremely left-handed, so retaining a right-handed bat with Call’s profile makes plenty of sense, and he is also still optionable. Tender.

EMMET SHEEHAN (3.063): $1,850,000

The Case: Sheehan enters arbitration with 246 career IP across 51 games (45 starts), 12 quality starts and a 4.13 career ERA. He made 23 appearances in his platform year and threw 112.1 IP to a 4.57 ERA before finishing the season on optional assignment.

Edward Cabrera (2024, $1.95M salary) provides the best historical lookback after entering arbitration as a fellow Super Two with 294 career IP across 63 games (61 starts), 12 quality starts and a 4.32 ERA, while his platform year was also abbreviated at 96.1 IP with a 4.95 ERA. Cabrera’s career bulk keeps him above Sheehan.

Spencer Arrighetti (2026, $1.85M proj. salary) is the strongest current-class comparison after entering arbitration with 291 career IP across 60 games (54 starts), 18 quality starts and a 4.79 career ERA while throwing 110.2 platform-year IP to a 4.96 ERA and also finishing the season on option. Arrighetti owns the career-bulk and quality-start advantages, but Sheehan has a clear quality advantage both in the platform year and over his career, which is enough to keep the two cases attached despite Sheehan’s lighter career workload.

There is not much precedent for starting pitchers entering arbitration after finishing the platform year on optional assignment, and the Dodgers can lean heavily on that fact in negotiations. I project Sheehan to match Arrighetti at a $1.85M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Sheehan will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

GAVIN STONE (3.034): $850,000

The Case: Stone enters arbitration after missing his entire PY with a 4.52 ERA across 171.1 career IP and 29 starts.

Casey Mize (2023, $830k salary) also missed his entire PY but entered arbitration with 188.2 IP across 39 starts and a better 4.29 ERA.

Sn the current class, Stone has better quality but less bulk than Alec Marsh (2026, $850k proj. salary). The two should slot at the bottom of the injured Arb-1 SP group together. I project Stone to earn an $850k Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: I expect Stone to remain with the Dodgers on a pre-tender split deal. He rehabbed in September and still has options remaining, which gives Los Angeles useful flexibility while limiting risk as he works back to full health. Pre-Tender.

ANDY PAGES (2.155): $3,700,000

The Case: Pages enters arbitration as a Super Two with 1,641 career PA, 63 HR and a 112 wRC+ while already owning two qualifying seasons and earning an All-Star selection in his platform year.

Mike Yastrzemski (2021, $3.7M salary) provides the best historical comparison. Yastrzemski entered arbitration as a 2x qualifer and finished eighth in MVP voting during the shortened 2020 season. When that shortened season is extrapolated to a full season, his career line entering arbitration lands around 1,551 PA with 73 HR. Pages enters with more career bulk, while Yastrzemski holds the power advantage and had a seaosn down-ballot MVP support. The overall career paths are close enough for Pages to match Yastrzemski, but the MVP support and power advantage keep him from clearly moving past the $3.7M salary.

Isaac Paredes (2023, $3.4M salary) and Tyler O’Neill (2021, $3.4M salary) are comparisons lower in the market who also recieved down-ballot MVP votes. However, both were qualifiers for the first time in their PY. Even after extrapolating O’Neill’s shortened 2020 season, however, Paredes and O’Neill entered with only about 1,254 and 1,329 career PA, respectively. Pages clears this group comfortably with the career bulk advantage and the extra qualifying season.

Jordan Walker (2026, $3.55M proj. salary) and Wilyer Abreu (2026, $3.65M proj. salary) are the best current-class comparisons but, like Paredes and O’Neill, both enter as 1x qualifiers. Walker has 1,706 career PA, 56 HR and a 101 wRC+, while Abreu has 1,630 PA, 63 HR and a 115 wRC+. Their similar career lines to Pages can keep them close behind, but they are tied to the 1x qualifer market.

I project him to match Yastrzemski at a $3.7M Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Pages will be tendered a contract. This could be a volatile case because of the current-class comparisons similarities. The timing and order of this group’s signings could drastically alter the market. Not an exaggeration to say this is the single most important case for the MLBPA in this cycle because they can use Pages to drag up the rest of the current-class outfielders. Tender.