Tampa Bay Rays Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Tampa Bay Rays Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 43

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 5

OPTIONS: Rasmussen (Club, $8.0M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 4; Tre’ Morgan, Xavier Isaac, Owen Wild, Alexander Alberto

SHANE MCCLANAHAN (5.158): $6,500,000 ($2.9M raise)

The Case: McClanahan always performs when healthy but unfortunately ended the season hurt again, but not before making 24 starts and throwing 118 IP with a 3.36 ERA, 3.50 FIP and 10-7 record.

Kris Bubic (2025, $3.15M raise) is the closest comparison in terms of both previous salary and workload after throwing 116.1 IP. Bubic made a few fewer starts but pitched to a 2.55 ERA and was named an All-Star while coming from a previous salary $600K below McClanahan’s.

The Rays can get aggressive with Frankie Montas (2022, $2.475M raise) and Tyler Mahle (2022, $2.3M raise), but I ultimately believe McClanahan settles below Bubic at a $2.9M raise for a $6.5M total salary. This projection assumes McClanahan does not pitch in the postseason.

Tender Prediction: McClanahan will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

NICK MADRIGAL (5.136): $875,000 ($25k raise)

The Case: Madrigal signed a minor league deal with an $850k Major League rate, appeared in 19 games and finished the season on optional assignment. This is a minimal-raise case and I project a $25k raise, bringing him to $875k.

Tender Prediction: Madrigal is a strong DFA/non-tender or trade candidate, as a 5+ player there is no reason for the Rays to give him a guaranteed salary. I expect his free-agent market to be in the minor leagues. Non-Tender.

TYLER WELLS (5.132): $4,250,000 ($1.8M raise)

The Case: Wells totaled 72 IP with 20 combined saves and holds and a 2.38 ERA.

Adrian Morejon (2025, $1.9M raise), Chad Green (2021, $1.85M raise) and Will Smith (2018, $1.725M raise) provide the best range as they all had similar IP with 20-24 SV+HLD and mid-2s to low-3 ERA. Wells SV+HLD figure would slot in below Morejon/Green and above Smith. Because of that, I project Wells at a $1.8M raise, bringing him to $4.25M.

Tender Prediction: Wells will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

COLE SULSER (5.096): $1,900,000 ($850k raise)

The Case: Sulser entered from a $1.05M salary and made 51 appearances with 15 SV+HLD while spending 49 days on optional assignment.

Drew Smith (2023, $925k raise) is the best comparisons pitching 56.1 IP and matching Sulser’s 15 SV+HLD. Sulser’s option time keeps him below, and I project an $850k raise, bringing him to $1.9M.

Tender Prediction: Sulser will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

TAYLOR WALLS (5.092): $6,000,000

The Case: Walls had his $2.45M club option accepted for 2026, meaning he never had the opportunity to go through the arbitration process before entering 2027 with a $3.1M club option.

If that option were declined, Walls’ representatives could argue from his full career value after totaling 1,993 PA, 241 R, 24 HR, 172 RBI and 87 SB while providing elite shortstop defense. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2022, $6.0M salary) and Joey Wendle (2022, $6.0M salary) provide strong career-based comparisons with similar overall offensive and defensive profiles, giving Walls an arbitration valuation in the neighborhood of $6M.

With the club option set at only $3.1M, Tampa Bay accepting the option is an easy decision if it intends to keep him on the roster.

Tender Prediction: Walls’ club option will be picked up for the second straight year, proving it was a great deal that continues to give the Rays surplus value. Accepted Club Option.

GRIFFIN JAX (5.091): $6,125,000 ($3.0M raise)

The Case: Jax came from a $3.125M relief-pitcher salary before moving into the rotation and making 23 starts across 34 appearances, totaling 112.1 IP with a 3.53 ERA while also spending time on the IL. His raise should now be judged in the SP market.

Kris Bubic (2025, $3.15M raise) is the primary comparison pitching 116.1 IP to a 2.55 ERA. I project Jax slightly below Bubic since he was an All-Star, more of a full-time SP, and the ERA advantage. I project Jax at a $3M raise, bringing him to $6.125M.

Tender Prediction: Jax will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

GARRETT CLEAVINGER (5.060): $3,700,000 ($1.3M raise)

The Case: Cleavinger had a solid season before ending the year on the IL with forearm tightness, with a possible postseason return still in play at the time of writing. He threw 41.1 IP and accumulated 24 SV+HLD.

Hunter Harvey (2024, $1.375M raise) provides the best comparison, with similar holds, appearances, ERA in his 50.2 IP. I project Cleavinger slightly below Harvey due to bulk difference. Cleavinger best fits at a $1.3M raise, bringing him to $3.7M. This projection assumes he does not return in the postseason.

Tender Prediction: Cleavinger will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

NICK FORTES (4.149): $3,285,000 ($750k raise)

The Case: Fortes totaled 323 PA with 6 HR and a 90 wRC+.

Victor Caratini (2022, $800K raise) provides the best historical comparison with 314 PA, 9 HR, and 84 wRC+. Fortes belongs slightly below Caratini and I project a $750K raise, bringing him to $3.285M.

Tender Prediction: Fortes will be tendered a contract, but it is not as obvious as it appears to be on paper, and I think Fortes is a trade candidate. The acquisition of Hicks cuts into his playing time, while Kenny Piper has a few option years remaining coming off a great 2025 along with highly regarded prospect Caden Bodine not far awat. Tender.

Ultimately, the Rays will likely tender Fortes because they could probably get a prospect back from a team willing to take Fortes and his salary if that’s the direction they want to go. However, a DFA or non-tender would not shock me as they do need to clear space for Rule 5 protections.

BRYAN BAKER (4.049): $4,800,000 ($3.525M raise)

The Case: Baker enters Arb-2 after a dominant platform season, finishing with 41 SV, 43 SV+HLD and the most saves by any player entering this Arb-2 relief market over the last 10 seasons. The complication is his low $1.275M Arb-1 salary, which creates a much wider range than his performance alone would suggest.

Taylor Rogers (2019, $2.925M raise) provides the floor as a player from a similar Arb-1 salary. Rogers totaled 40 SV+HLD, three fewer than Baker, while Baker recorded 11 more saves and posted better quality by ERA. Baker should comfortably clear Rogers’ raise.

Much further away from Baker’s starting salary, Blake Treinen (2018, $4.25M raise), Devin Williams (2023, $3.65M raise) and Jhoan Duran (2025, $3.375M raise) are examples of the most elite RP seasons. Williams entered Arb-2 after a dominant closer season with 36 SV, 58.2 IP and a 1.53 ERA, while Baker has addvantages, Williams came from a significantly higher Arb-1 salary, which should keep Baker from reaching the full $3.65M raise, but Baker’s five-save advantage should be enough to push him well beyond the lower-salary precedent set by Taylor Rogers.

Within the current class, Mason Miller (2026, $3.8M proj. raise) is an important reference because Baker produced the stronger traditional saves profile, while Miller’s higher starting salary, expected award recognition and negotiating leverage could still lead to the larger raise. My projected raise from Baker is based heavily on Miller dragging Baker’s raise up with him. I project Baker for a $3.525M raise, resulting in a $4.8M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Baker will be tendered a contract. This should be a very fun case with a wide range of possible outcomes. Would not be surprised to see this in a hearing. Tender.

RYAN PEPIOT (4.005): $3,025,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Pepiot missed the entire platform season due to injury. Kutter Crawford (2025, $0 raise) provides the clean recent precedent. I project no raise, keeping Pepiot at $3.025M.

Tender Prediction: Pepiot will be tendered a contract assuming there are no major medical red flags, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

KEVIN KELLY (3.156): $2,450,000 ($1.525M raise)

The Case: Kelly finished with the second-most holds of any player entering Arb-2 in the last 10 years posting 33 HLD in 73.2 total IP with a 2.44 ERA.

Bryan Abreu (2024, $1.7M raise) posted 38 HLD in his PY, establishing a ceiling for Kelly. Erik Swanson (2023, $1.5M raise) and JoJo Romero (2025, $1.4M raise) provide a floor for Kelly due to his bulk and quality advantages. I project a $1.525M raise, bringing him to $2.45M.

Tender Prediction: Kelly will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

RICHIE PALACIOS (3.156): $2,055,000 ($1.1M raise)

The Case: Palacios totaled nearly 400 PA and enters from a salary just under $1M. Palacios posted 10 HR, 17 SB to a 101 wRC+.

Tony Kemp (2021, $1.2M raise) is the ceiling coparison from a $1.05M previous salary. Palacios has slight counting-stat and power advantages, but Kemp had the superior offensive quality posting a 128 wRC+ in 397 PA. Ramón Laureano (2022, $1.1M raise) provides another strong comparison with a very similar 13 HR, 11 SB season in 404 PA. I project Palacios to match Laureano’s $1.1M raise, bringing him to $2.055M.

Tender Prediction: Palacios will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

EDWIN UCETA (3.150): $1,525,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Uceta missed the entire 2026 season with injury. Dillon Tate (2023, $0 raise) provides the precedent for repeating the previous salary after a full missed season. I project no raise, keeping Uceta at $1.525M.

Tender Prediction: Uceta will be tendered a contract assuming there are no major medical red flags. He could also be a trade candidate, as a lot of his high-leverage spots have been taken by other performers while he has been hurt and the Rays could use that bullpen surplus to trade from it. Tender.

MANUEL RODRIGUEZ (3.139): $890,000

The Case: Rodriguez only made 4 appearances and threw 4.2 IP in his platform season, leaving his arbitration case almost entirely dependent on his career resume. He enters arbitration with 104 career IP, 26 HLD, 7 SV and a 3.03 ERA.

Nick Anderson (2021, $845k salary) and Andrew Nardi (2025, $800k salary) provide the best historical limited-platform range. Anderson threw just 6 IP in his platform season and entered arbitration with 22 HLD and 8 SV, while Nardi missed his entire platform year but had 121.2 career IP with 33 HLD and 3 SV. Rodriguez’s 26 HLD and 7 SV give him comparable leverage production, while his small amount of platform-year contribution helps push him above this historical range. Rodriguez tops Anderson with the slight career HLD+SV advantage, I project a salary of $890k.

Tender Prediction: Rodriguez is a strong DFA/non-tender candidate. Non-Tender.

JONNY DELUCA (3.085): $1,850,000

The Case: DeLuca enters arbitration with 370 PA’s, 11 HR’s, 50 RBI’s, 17 SB and a 102 wRC+ in his platform year, while his career line sits at 836 PA’s, 19 HR’s, 91 RBI’s, 40 SB and a 92 wRC+.

Ernie Clement (2024, $1.97M salary) and Romy Gonzalez (2025, $1.6M salary) provide the best historical range with both entering arbitration with similar career lines in bulk, power and quality, Gonzalez totaled only 796 career PA’s which is the least of this group while Clement posted 452 PA’s in his platform year which is the most of the group. DeLuca’s 370 platform-year PA’s keep him below Clement, but his combination of bulk, power and quality places him comfortably above Gonzalez.

Dane Myers (2026, $1.7M proj. salary) and Oswald Peraza (2026, $1.45M proj. salary) are the best current-class comparisons with very similar platform-year and career bulk as well as similar career power, though DeLuca and Myers have clear career quality advantages over Peraza which should keep Peraza at the bottom of the group.

I project a $1.85M total salary.

Tender Prediction: DeLuca will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JESSE SCHOLTENS (3.031): $875,000

The Case: Scholtens made 11 appearances and threw 44.2 IP with a 4.03 ERA in his platform season.

Dylan Covey (2023, $850k salary) provides the best comparison with similar platform-year innings but less quality, while Luis Cessa (2019, $895k salary) provides the upper reference. Scholtens has better platform-year quality than Covey but less career bulk, placing him between the two at an $875k total salary.

Tender Prediction: Scholtens is a strong DFA/non-tender candidate. Non-Tender.

JONATHAN ARANDA (3.030): $3,275,000

The Case: Jonathan Aranda (Rays) enters arbitration as a 1x All-Star (though not in his PY) who had his lone qualifying season in his PY posting a whopping 668 PA’s to the tune of a 123 wRC+ leading to 1423 career PA’s with a 124 wRC+.

Jeff McNeil (2021, $3.0M) is a great comp a fellox 1x qualifier, 1x non-PY All-Star with elite hit tool (125 career wRC+) in a similar 1450 PA’s. McNeil’s PY was disappointing with a 91 wRC+ and Aranda holds a power advantage over McNeil making him the clear floor that Aranda’s reps can argue up from.

Alec Burleson (2025, $3.3M) represents a recent comp that is a likely ceiling for Aranda as Burleson has two qualifying seasons in his career which lead him to 1541 career PA’s with 48 career HR’s (compared to Aranda’s 46). Burleson won a Silver Slugger in his 124 wRC+ PY. I project Aranda to slot in just behind at $3.275M.

Tender Prediction: Aranda will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.