Kansas City Royals Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Kansas City Royals Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 46 (not including Estevez)

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 3

OPTIONS: Estevez (Club, $13M); Gonsolin (Club, $2.5M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 2; Carson Roccaforte, Lucas Braun

KYLE ISBEL (5.043): $3,800,000 ($1.1M raise)

The Case: Isbel totaled 323 PA with 6 HR, 24 RBI, 6 SB and a 61 wRC+ this season.

Edmundo Sosa (2024, $1.3M raise) is the best comparison after 274 PA with 7 HR, 31 RBI and a 101 wRC+ while spending nine days on the IL. Sosa’s clear quality advantage keeps Isbel below his raise. I project a $1.1M raise, bringing Isbel to $3.8M.

Tender Prediction: Isbel will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

NATE PEARSON (5.042): $1,650,000 ($300k raise)

The Case: Pearson finished with 6 holds, 4 saves and a 4.11 ERA.

Enyel De Los Santos (2025, $200k raise plus $100k in incentives) provides the best comparison after 6 holds and no saves with more innings. Pearson’s saves give him an advantage despite the workload difference. I project a $300k raise, bringing him to $1.65M.

Tender Prediction: I expect Pearson to agree to a pre-tender deal to remain with the club at a similar salary. The Royals have to fill nearly their entire bullpen, which gives them plenty of reason to keep him around. Pre-Tender.

NICK MEARS (5.022): $2,000,000 ($100k raise)

The Case: Mears made 21 appearances with 5 holds before undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.

Jonathan Loáisiga (2023, $237.5k raise) and Josh Taylor (2023, $75k raise) provide the best injury-heavy range with similar PY bulk. Mears belongs near the lower end due to severity on injury and I project a $100k raise, bringing him to $2M.

Tender Prediction: I expect Mears to be a DFA/non-tender given the severity of the injury and the fact that he is set to reach free agency after the 2027 season. Non-Tender.

ALEX LANGE (4.145): $1,550,000 ($550k raise)

The Case: Lange signed a $900k free-agent deal with $100K in incentives, bringing his effective salary to $1M, and recorded 10 saves despite poor ERA quality.

Amir Garrett (2021, $525k raise) provides the best comparison with a similar poor quality ERA of 6.04 across 47.2 IP while recording 7 SV. Due to Lange’s slight SV advantage, I project a $550k raise, bringing him to $1.55M.

Tender Prediction: I expect Lange to be a DFA/non-tender. He has struggled this year and there are cheaper, less-risky options available to fill low-leverage bullpen roles. Non-Tender.

DANIEL LYNCH IV (4.136): $1,900,000 ($875k raise)

The Case: Lynch worked in a hybrid role throughout the platform season, making 55 appearances and 9 starts while throwing 80.2 IP with 13 HLD, 1 SV and a 4.13 ERA. That combination of starting-pitcher bulk and back-end relief production gives him a somewhat unusual Arb-2 case.

Mike Mayers (2021, $950k raise) provides the ceiling after throwing 75 IP across 72 appearances with 2 starts, 17 HLD, 2 SV and a 3.84 ERA. Mayers had similar overall bulk and the same starter/reliever profile, but produced more leverage counting stats with slightly better run prevention, keeping Lynch below his raise.

José Alvarez (2018, $875k raise) is the cleaner placement comparison after recording 14 HLD and 1 SV across 63 IP with a 2.71 ERA. Alvarez holds the significant quality advantage, while Lynch has a substantial innings advantage and nearly identical SV+HLD production. Those tradeoffs put the cases in the same range, and I project Lynch to match Alvarez’s $875k raise, resulting in a $1.9M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Lynch will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

MICHAEL MASSEY (4.068): $3,645,000 ($2.075M raise)

The Case: Massey totaled 452 PA and fell just short of qualifying because of a short IL stint. Massey posted a 99 wRC+.

Taylor Ward (2023, $2.05M raise) provides the floor after posting nearly identical run production, but Massey holds the bulk advantage while Ward posted 409 PA. Ward also finished his platform year on the IL.

Enrique Hernández (2018, $2.125M raise) provides the ceiling with a slight bulk advantage and a significant run-production advantage over Massey. Massey belongs directly between the two but closer to Ward, and I project a $2.075M raise bringing him to a $3.645M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Massey will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

ANTHONY GOSE (4.019): $840,000 ($20k raise)

The Case: Gose signed a prorated $820k deal and pitched to a 0.66 ERA in limited work with only a few holds. I project a minimal $20k raise, bringing him to $840k.

Tender Prediction: Gose has pitched well in a limited sample and I expect the Royals to work out a pre-tender split deal. Pre-Tender.

JAMES MCARTHUR (3.150): $810,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: McArthur missed the entire 2026 season with injury. Dillon Tate (2023 – $0 raise) also missed his entire platform season and received the same exact salary the following season.

The maximum salary reduction rules technically allow a reduction, but that reduction would fall below the league minimum so the club could only reduce McArthur to the 2027 league minimum.

There is enough precedent to keep him at the same salary and I do not expect the club to cut him. I project a $0 raise resulting in an $810k total salary.

Tender Prediction: McArthur’s decision depends on his health, but I would expect him to remain with the club, likely through a pre-tender deal. Pre-Tender.

RANDY DOBNAK (3.148): $900,000

The Case: Out of all the 200+ cases I analyzed for this arbitration projection series, this may be the most complicated. Dobnak received a pre-arbitration contract extension that was designed to buy out all of his team-control years, but poor performance eventually led to him being outrighted to the minors where he stopped accumulating Major League service time, and the CBA allows the “record of past compensation” to be considered in arbitration.

If I were working for Dobnak, I would argue that he is technically a first-time eligible player as a player with 3+ years of Major League service who has never had the opportunity to participate in arbitration.

If I am with the Royals, I would argue that he was already paid for those seasons through the extension and should instead be judged largely on his 74.1 innings with Kansas City, which would put him around league minimum in a first-time arbitration case or only a small raise in a raise-based framework.

There is not a clean historical roadmap for how those competing arguments should interact, so this is honestly one of the few cases where I do not have much confidence in the answer. I project $900k as essentially a best guess, representing a slight increase over the Major League terms of his minor-league deal this season.

Tender Prediction: Dobnak has pitched well and I expect him to be with the Royals next year on a pre-tender split deal. If he is tendered, I pray for the fine people of the American Arbitration Association who have to sit through that case. Pre-Tender.

LUCAS ERCEG (3.124): $1,800,000

The Case: Erceg enters arbitration with 223.1 career IP, 55 HLD and 28 SV, including 45.1 IP, 12 SV, 4 HLD and a 5.96 ERA in his platform season.

Hector Neris (2018, $1.8M salary) is the best historical comp, entering arbitration with 39 SV and 36 HLD and posting 47.2 IP, 11 SV, 4 HLD and a 5.10 ERA in his platform year. Both were also optioned. Neris’ additional saves offset Erceg’s advantage in holds, putting them in essentially the same range.

Within the current class, Ryan Walker (2026, $1.6M proj. salary) has 31 SV, 37 HLD and 235.1 IP, Daniel Palencia (2026, $1.55M proj. salary) has 26 SV but only around 125 career IP, and Victor Vodnik (2026, $1.5M proj. salary) has 23 SV, 19 HLD and roughly 192 IP. All players lost their closer role in the PY. Erceg’s combination of saves, holds and career bulk keeps him above all three. I project a $1.8M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Erceg spent some time on option this year due to struggles, but the ceiling is too high for a bullpen that is lacking talent and he should be tendered. Tender.

ALEC MARSH (3.078): $850,000

The Case: Marsh enters arbitration after missing his entire PY with a 4.96 ERA across 203.1 career IP and 33 starts.

Griffin Canning (2022, $850K salary) also missed his entire PY entering arbitration with almost identical career bulk at 209.1 IP across 41 starts with a better 4.73 ERA.

Current class comp Gavin Stone (2026, $850k proj. salary) enters arbitration with 171.1 career IP and a 4.52 ERA, Marsh’s career bulk advantage with 203.1 IP is balanced out by Stone’s quality advantage with a 4.52 ERA compared to Marsh’s 4.96 ERA and the two should earn the same salary. I project Marsh to earn an $850k Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Marsh is fully health dependent, but adding a starting pitcher via free agency is much more expensive than $850K, so he should be tendered. Tender.