Philadelphia Phillies Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Philadelphia Phillies Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 43

PENDING FREE AGENTS + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 8

OPTIONS: None

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 4; Aroon Escobar, Bryan Rincon, Keaton Anthony, Mavis Grabes

Garrett Stubbs (5.139): $950,000 ($25k raise)

The Case: Stubbs produced a 3 wRC+ in just 67 PA during another extremely limited offensive season. The case does not support much of a raise above his previous $925k Major League rate, leaving him essentially at the bottom of the market. I project a $25k raise resulting in a $950k total salary.

Tender Prediction: This should be a DFA/non-tender. He’s left the Phillies’ 40-man before and found his way back, and he probably will again, but there is no need to tender him to do that and take up a roster spot. Non-Tender.

Brandon Marsh (5.078): $8,100,000 ($2.9M raise)

The Case: Marsh made his first All-Star team while finishing the season with 568 PA, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 11 SB and a 90 wRC+, although his season was dragged down by a brutal second half where he produced just a 31 wRC+.

Alex Verdugo (2023, $2.9M raise) provides the best comparison Verdugo totaled 602 PA with 13 HR, 54 RBI, 5 SB and a 99 wRC+. Marsh has the All-Star selection nod while Vergudo has the edge in PA and wRC+, while also finishing the year stronger than Marsh.

Ernie Clement (2026, $2.9M proj. raise) is a current class comp with similar PY numbers and same 2nd half drop off. Overall, I project a $2.9M raise resulting in an $8.1M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Marsh will be tendered a contract. The same analysis as Stott applies here, and I expect this to get done without a hearing. Tender.

Bryson Stott (5.000): $8,900,000 ($3.0M raise)

The Case: Stott put together another full season of everyday production, finishing with 608 PA, 10 HR, 67 RBI, 27 SB and a 102 wRC+.

Willi Castro (2024, $3.1M raise) provides the historical ceiling. Castro had slightly more platform-year bulk, power and offensive quality, but Stott holds advantages in RBI and stolen bases. The two have very similar all-around profiles built around everyday bulk, defensive versatility, speed and solid offensive production, but Castro’s slight advantages in PA, HR and wRC+ should keep Stott just below his $3.1M raise.

Alex Verdugo (2023, $2.9M raise) provides the historical floor and a very strong placement point. Verdugo had nearly identical platform-year bulk at 602 PA compared with Stott’s 608 and hit 13 HR compared with Stott’s 10, but Stott holds clear advantages in RBI, stolen bases and offensive quality, with Verdugo finishing with 54 RBI, 5 SB and a 100 wRC+. Stott should therefore clear Verdugo’s $2.9M raise.

Jarren Duran (2026, $2.925M proj. raise), Ernie Clement (2026, $2.9M proj. raise), Brandon Marsh (2026, $2.9M proj. raise) are all similar current class comps that Stott should receive the highest raise of. I project a $3M raise, resulting in an $8.9M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Stott will be tendered a contract. The case will have a lot of moving parts with a big current class, but Dave Dombrowski-led front offices have rarely gone to hearings and is, if anything, quite generous in his settlements, so this should get done without a hearing. Tender.

Jhoan Duran (5.000): $11,250,000 ($3.75M raise)

The Case: Duran had another elite closer season with 33 SV, just 2 BS, a 1.82 ERA and 1.42 FIP across 59.1 IP while pitching to a 1.70 gmLI. He enters Arb-3 from a $7.5M salary.

Josh Hader (2021, $4.325M raise) provides the firm ceiling. Hader entered from a lower $6.675M salary but posted 34 SV with just 1 BS, a 1.23 ERA and 1.69 FIP across 58.2 IP while pitching to a 1.80 gmLI. His bulk, saves and leverage are almost identical to Duran’s, but Hader had the superior run prevention and most importantly, Haden won NL Reliever of the Year. Duran should not approach Hader’s $4.325M raise

Roberto Osuna (2019, $3.5M raise) is the strongest comparison. Osuna came from a lower $6.5M salary and recorded 38 SV with 6 BS, a 2.63 ERA and 3.21 FIP across 65 IP while pitching to a nearly identical 1.75 gmLI Duran’s significant ERA and FIP advantages and coming from a higher salary should push Duran slightly above it Osuna’s raise. I project a $3.75M raise, resulting in an $11.25M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Duran will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

Tanner Banks (4.091): $1,325,000 ($125k raise)

The Case: Banks was used exclusively in low leverage with poor quality by ERA while spending time on both optional assignment and the IL.

Brock Burke (2024, $115K raise) is a very similar comparison, with similar bulk by Games and IP, similar poor quality by ERA, and also spending time on both optional assignment and the IL. Banks was not DFA’d like Burke and comes from a slightly higher Arb-1 salary, allowing Banks to squeak out a slightly higher raise. I project a $125k raise resulting in a $1.325M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Banks will be a strong DFA/non-tender candidate. He’s out of options, and the Phillies can replace a low-leverage bullpen role with someone on a league-minimum salary. I would expect Banks to be restricted to only minor league contracts this offseason. Non-Tender.

Derek Hill (4.040): $1,600,000 ($700k raise)

The Case: Hill produced 11 HR and 13 SB in just 216 PA with a 99 wRC+ while providing good OF defense.

Jake Marisnick (2017, $800k raise) is the primary comparison after producing 16 HR and 9 SB with a 117 wRC+ in 259 PA. Edmundo Sosa (2023, $750k raise) also provides a useful comparison above Hill. Marisnick holds the power and quality advantages while Sosa holds the playing-time advantage, keeping Hill below both raises despite the value he provided in limited playing time. I project a $700K raise resulting in a $1.6M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Hill has played his way into probably securing a weak-side platoon spot in the Phillies’ OF. I think they try to get this done pre-tender for a slightly lower salary than he’d get through the arbitration process, but I expect him to be a Phillie in 2027. Pre-Tender.

Rafael Marchán (4.006): $900,000 ($40k raise)

The Case: Marchán enters arbitration coming from an $860k salary after posting 95 PA.

Garrett Stubbs (2024, $75k raise) is the primary comparison with 187 PA and provides the framework for another extremely small raise case. Marchán falls below Stubbs’ $75k increase, resulting in a $40k raise and $900k total salary.

Tender Prediction: Marchán will be a strong DFA/non-tender candidate. If they want to keep him, they can probably bring him back later in the offseason. There is no reason to use up a roster spot. Non-Tender.

Bryan De La Cruz (3.147): $950,000 ($100k raise)

The Case: De La Cruz signed a minor league deal with an $850K Major League base before receiving just 86 PA at the Major League level, producing a 102 wRC+.

Ryan O’Hearn (2022, $100k raise) is a strong comparison after posting 145 PA with a 70 wRC+ while coming from a $1.3M salary. O’Hearn has the bulk advantage, while De La Cruz’s significantly better quality helps offset the difference in playing time. De La Cruz matches O’Hearn’s $100k raise, resulting in a $950k total salary.

Tender Prediction: I lean yes, and they get it done pre-tender. I’m not as convinced of his role as I am of Hill’s, but he wasn’t optioned long enough this year to use up his last option, and I think because of that he remains with the Phillies. Pre-Tender.

Orion Kerkering (3.010): $1,530,000

The Case: Kerkering presents a really interesting case, posting over three seasons of high-leverage usage and good performance until a rough second half of 2026 that actually ended with him on optional assignment. Over his career, he’s amassed 57 SV+HLD, pitching to a 3.47 ERA across 184 IP with a 1.26 gmLI.

Two comps that had good platform seasons but get to similar career stats with a checkered past full of injuries and options are Matt Brash (2025, $1.55M salary) and Edwin Uceta (2025, $1.525M salary). Brash has a career total of 62 SV+HLD, pitching to a 3.31 ERA across 168.2 IP and spending well over 200 days on the IL in his career, while Uceta has just 34 SV+HLD with a 3.70 ERA in 158 career IP, spending nearly 500 days combined on option or IL and being DFA’d three times.

There is a very strong statistical comparison in the current class in Jeremiah Estrada (2026, $1.53M proj. salary), who has amassed 64 SV+HLD with a 3.47 ERA across 181.1 IP and a 1.22 gmLI. On top of the nearly identical statistical comparison, Estrada ended the season off the active roster with an IL placement. These two players should slot in right with each other. It’s hard to find recent comps with similar career totals but checkered platform seasons. I project both Kerkering to slot in at $1.53M with the slight advantages against Uceta.

Tender Prediction: Kerkering will be tendered a contract. This is an opportunity for the Phillies’ front office to be aggressive in trying to suppress Orion’s salary, as no RP in the past handful of seasons has ended the year on option and made over $1M. This has hearing potential, but the Phillies typically try to avoid that. Tender.