Athletics Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Athletics Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 46 (not including players with options)

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 2

OPTIONS: Severino (Player, $22M), McNeil (Club, $15.75M), Springs (Club, $15M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 1; Corey Avant

SHEA LANGELIERS (4.051): $7,500,000 ($2.2M raise)

The Case: Langeliers finished his platform season with 467 PA, 23 HR and 58 RBI despite missing time with injury.

Ryan Jeffers (2024, $2.125M raise) provides an extremely close platform-year comparison after finishing with 465 PA, 21 HR and 56 RBI. The offensive production is nearly identical, with Langeliers holding slight advantages across the power and run production counting stats despite the missed time. I project Langeliers for a $2.2M raise resulting in a $7.5M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Shea Langeliers will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

LUIS MEDINA (3.146): $1,550,000 ($715k raise)

The Case: Medina put together a solid middle-relief season, racking up 13 HLD across 73 IP and throwing to a 3.08 ERA. Anthony Bender (2024, $650K raise), Jimmy Herget (2025, $700K raise), and Joe Mantiply (2024, $775K raise) provide the historical range with similar holds and ERA/FIP rate stats.

Herget is the most relevant comparison because he comes from the most similar Arb-1 salary and is also the most recent comp. Herget tallied 9 HLD in 83.1 IP pitching to a 2.48 ERA. Medina holds a slight advantage in holds, which should allow him to squeak above Herget’s $700K raise but remain below the $775K raise of Mantiply, who racked up 16 HLD. I project Medina for a $715K raise resulting in a $1.55M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Luis Medina will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

ZACK GELOF (3.050): $2,850,000

The Case: Gelof comes into the arbitration market with a lot of peaks and valleys, leading to a career stat line of 1,383 PA, 55 HR, 143 RBI, 56 SB and a 99 wRC+ with one qualifying season coming in his PY-2. He did have a productive platform year, posting a 114 wRC+ across 435 PA with a career-high 22 HR.

Lars Nootbaar (2024, $2.95M salary) provides a strong comparison with 1,379 career PA, 66 HR, 227 RBI, 30 SB and a 116 wRC+, with his qualifying season coming in his PY-1 (Platform Year minus one). Nootbaar also posted a 114 wRC+ in his platform year across a similar 405 PA, although with only 12 HR.

Gelof likely slots in behind Nootbaar due to the overall career quality and run production disadvantages, along with Nootbaar being the more consistent performer, but Gelof’s platform-year production and power keep him from falling too far behind.

Kyle Stowers (2026, $2.95M proj. salary) and Colton Cowser (2026, $2.6M proj. salary) provide current-class comparisons. Stowers has 1,309 career PA with 52 HR, 173 RBI and a 115 wRC+, including a 114 wRC+ in his lone qualifying season in his platform year.

Despite some minor career statistical disadvantages to Gelof, Stowers has the best trendline of the group and is the only one to post a qualifying season in his platform year, allowing him to reach the top of this group and match Nootbaar’s $2.95M salary. Cowser is the opposite of Stowers in that he’s trending down entering arbitration, with most of his production coming from one season multiple years ago. Cowser slots in below this group at $2.6M. Gelof fits between Stowers/Nootbaar and Cowser. I project Gelof for an Arb-1 salary of $2.85M.

Tender Prediction: Zack Gelof will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

HOGAN HARRIS (2.146): $1,825,000

The Case: Harris enters arbitration as a closer coming off a 17-save platform season. His 2.146 MLS is near the cutoff but should be good enough for Super Two status. He has posted a whopping 270.1 career IP due to being used as a SP earlier in his career, with 37 career SV+HLDs and a 4.06 ERA.

Pitchers who enter this market as closers typically shoot up toward the top of the Arb-1 RP market. Paul Sewald (2021, $1.735M salary) and Calvin Faucher (2025, $1.8M salary) are the closest comparisons as other one-year platform-season closers. Sewald had 11 saves and 16 holds in his platform year and entered arbitration with 45 career SV+HLDs across 212 IP to a 4.75 ERA. Faucher posted 15 saves and 5 holds across 60.1 IP with a 3.28 ERA in his platform year and entered arbitration with 42 career SV+HLDs across 161 IP to a 4.14 ERA.

Harris trails both in career SV+HLDs but holds a significant career bulk advantage, the career quality advantage by ERA, and the platform-year saves advantage. That should be enough to push him just above Faucher at the top of this group. I project Harris for an Arb-1 salary of $1.825M.

Tender Prediction: Hogan Harris will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.