Colorado Rockies Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Colorado Rockies Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 46

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 4

OPTIONS: None

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 3; Roc Riggio, Jack Mahoney, Jackson Cox

JIMMY HERGET (5.069): $2,200,000 ($650k raise)

The Case: Herget enters from a $1.55M Arb-2 salary after appearing in 51 games with 10 HLD and 3 SV.

Trevor Richards (2023, $650k raise) and T.J. McFarland (2019, $400k raise) provide the best historical comparisons, with both coming from similar salaries and appearing in the low-50s number of games. Herget recorded more combined SV+HLD than either comparison, although both posted better quality by ERA standards. Herget should get to top of the group, and I project a $650K raise resulting in a $2.2M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Herget will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JAKE MCCARTHY (4.074): $4,225,000 ($2.7M raise)

The Case: McCarthy put together an excellent platform season with 596 PA, 15 HR, 83 RBI, 32 SB and a 108 wRC+ while also providing stellar OF defense.

Ernie Clement (2025, $2.63M raise), Zach McKinstry (2025, $2.55M raise) and Luis García (2024, $2.55M raise) provide the best historical comparisons from a similar low Arb-1 salary. McCarthy exceeds this group in overall platform-year production, combining more PA and RBI with elite speed, while McKinstry was the only player in the historical group to carry an All-Star selection.

Within the current class, Ezequiel Duran (2026, $2.7M proj. raise) is the direct comparison after posting 597 PA, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 12 SB and a 109 wRC+. The offensive lines are extremely similar. I project both recieve a raise above the recent historical comps, with McCarthy at a $2.7M raise resulting in a $4.225M total salary.

Tender Prediction: McCarthy will be tendered a contract and is potentially an extension opportunity coming off an incredible season. This specific Arb-2 position player market is very harsh on players that enter with Arb-1 salaries in the upper-$1M to lower-$2M range.

The low salary gives the Rockies more room to front-load the contract and take money off the back end of the deal. If the Rockies are interested, I think pursuing this now is a good idea as the likelihood goes down as free agency nears, especially with some of the new CBA proposals coming out suggesting free agency after five years of service for players over a certain age and McCarthy is already 29. Any extension probably wouldn’t be more than a 4-5 year deal buying out 2-3 free-agent years. Tender.

RYAN FELTNER (4.071): $3,300,000 ($850k raise)

The Case: Feltner had a strange platform season, spending the majority of the year as a starting pitcher before transitioning to the bullpen and finishing the season pitching extremely well. Overall, Feltner threw 123.1 IP across 26 appearances and 22 starts with a 5.40 ERA while also spending more than a month on the IL.

Ross Stripling (2021, $790k raise) provides a good comparison after throwing 101.1 IP with a 4.80 ERA while making the majority of his appearances as a starter with 5 appearances out of the bullpen and also spending more than a month on the IL.

Feltner’s ERA is worse, but he has a significant bulk advantage with more than 20 additional innings and his strong finish out of the bullpen helps his case. I project Feltner gets slightly above Stripling’s raise at $850k, bringing his total salary to $3.3M.

Tender Prediction: Feltner will be tendered a contract. Sneaky trade candidate. I will not be surprised if he gets moved this offseason for a package that may seem steep to the public. Tender.

BRENNAN BERNARDINO (3.153): $1,700,000 ($775k raise)

The Case: Bernardino’s platform season is nearly identical to Joe Mantiply (2024, $775K raise). Bernardino made 72 appearances and threw 62.1 IP with a 2.89 ERA, 3.56 FIP and 1.29 gmLI, while Mantiply made 75 appearances and threw 59.2 IP with a 3.92 ERA, 2.51 FIP and 1.14 gmLI. Both were occasionally used as openers and both entered from the exact same $925K Arb-1 salary. Bernardino has the ERA advantage while Mantiply holds the FIP advantage, with otherwise extremely similar bulk and usage.

There is very little reason to separate the two cases, so I project Bernardino to match Mantiply’s $775K raise, resulting in a $1.7M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Bernardino will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

HUNTER GOODMAN (3.010): $5,400,000

The Case: Hunter Goodman enters arbitration off back-to-back All-Star campaigns with a Silver Slugger Award and another likely in the imminent future. Goodman enters arbitration with 1,454 career PA, 86 HR and 232 RBI to the tune of a 104 career wRC+ (115 over the last two seasons).

Shea Langeliers (2025, $5.3M salary) entered the market just last season with 88 career HR and 237 RBI to the tune of a 107 career wRC+. Langeliers holds a bulk PA advantage over Goodman by about 250 career PA, however, Langeliers received no award recognition up to this point, whereas Goodman is running out of space on his mantle.

The statistical similarities and Goodman’s significant awards advantage will push Goodman past Langeliers’ salary. The next-highest salary in the Arb-1 catcher market is Adley Rutschman (2024, $5.5M salary). He is going to be hard to pass with a bulk PA advantage of over 300 while also having multiple All-Star selections, a Silver Slugger and multiple seasons receiving MVP votes.

Goodman fits cleanly between these two recent comps and receives an Arb-1 salary of $5.4M.

Tender Prediction: Goodman will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.