Could Yordan Alvarez Win the Triple Crown Along With His MVP?
Yordan Alvarez is the heavy favorite to win AL MVP, but he's also tracking toward one of baseball's most elusive feats: the Triple Crown.
By now, I think we can all agree that Yordan Alvarez is a special player. Since his debut in 2019, Alvarez has posted a wRC+ of 160 or better three times, with 2026 tracking to be his fourth. A career .300/.397/.579 slash line and 166 wRC+ puts you in a category that few players ever reach.
Although Alvarez has a top-three finish in MVP voting, 2026 is the best he has ever looked.
Injuries have cut his season short a number of times, but at 29, Alvarez is putting on a display that could lead to a feat that is about as rare as anything in baseball: a Triple Crown.
If you have forgotten what a Triple Crown entails, I could see why. There has only been one winner since the turn of the century, with Miguel Cabrera accomplishing the feat in 2012. Before that, you have to go back to Carl Yastrzemski and Frank Robinson winning it in the ’60s.
In order to win the Triple Crown, you must lead the league in home runs, batting average, and RBI. Sure, batting average and RBI are a bit of a faux pas to discuss in this day and age, but I think we can all appreciate the magnitude of this award in 2026.
Triple Crown Chase
Ten. That’s the number of Triple Crown winners there have been in the history of baseball. The first was Rogers Hornsby in 1922, when he doubled his home run output from the year before, launching 42 long balls with a .401 average and 152 RBI. Of course, the game has changed since then.
The most recent example was Miguel Cabrera’s 2012 season. A remarkable 44 home runs and 139 RBI to go with his .330 average, which was actually his lowest average of a three-year span. Sure, the game has even changed since 2012, but Alvarez could get close to those numbers.
As of August 30, 134 games and 588 plate appearances into the season, Alvarez sits at 37 home runs, 93 RBI, and a .320 batting average. All of which lead the American League, but with a month left in the season, will he be able to keep the pace?
Home Runs
Alvarez (37), Caminero (36), Rice (35), Alonso (32)
Having a lead of only one against two legit, proven power hitters is tough to hold off. In my opinion, this is where Alvarez could falter the most. Over the last 27 games, Alvarez has only left the yard twice, allowing the hitters behind him to catch up.
A couple of things are playing in his favor. First, Alvarez has hit 20 of his home runs at home this season, and Houston has 13 home games remaining on their schedule compared to only 12 away games. Also, the last four games of the season are in Sacramento, which has allowed the second-most home runs of any ballpark. Four games in Sacramento against A’s pitching could be the recipe for success.
His competition is strong. We all know the power Pete Alonso has, and there are few power hitters who have been better as of late. In the month of August, Alonso has had the most home runs (9) in the American League. Murakami is sitting at five, Caminero at six, while Ben Rice has been struggling, making him less of a threat.
Alonso is the proven bat that I am most worried about catching and surpassing Alvarez, but Murakami is hitting home runs at a rate I did not expect from the rookie. Having 29 home runs through 100 games is absurd, and his 31.2% home run-to-fly-ball ratio clears Alvarez by 11%.
To me, this will be the most interesting of the three categories to follow.
RBI
Alvarez (93), Alonso (91), Caminero (86), Rice (86), Dingler (82)
As you would imagine, a similar group of names also appears in the RBI race. Once again, Alvarez, Alonso, and Caminero will likely bring this down to the wire. Alonso has been on the hottest stretch, collecting 22 RBI in August with Caminero closely behind him at 20. Alvarez has only collected 11 as he loses ground.
Predicting RBI totals is a funky game. You cannot do much about who gets on base in front of you, but you at least have to consider the strength of the lineup to give you a better chance at getting opportunities to drive in runs. Alvarez has been in the two-hole, where he hits behind Jeremy Pena, which is a combo I love, but the bottom of the Astros’ order doesn’t do him many favors.
Alonso also takes the two-hole behind Jackson Holliday and the bottom of a Baltimore lineup that leaves a lot to be desired. If I had to find an edge for this race, I would say the Rays bring an intriguing approach. A team that is full of players who walk at over a 10% clip and rarely strike out should produce enough scenarios where Caminero is up to bat with runners on.
As I said, predicting RBI is a fool’s game, but if I had to guess, I’d lean Caminero.
Batting Average
Alvarez (.320), Simpson (.311), Diaz (.304), Witt Jr. (.287), DeLautter (.286)
Anything can happen in a month, but I view batting average as the category Alvarez has the most locked up. For obvious reasons. Simpson is a decent ways away from reaching Alvarez, and Yordan has so few holes in his game. Simpson having no power means a week of bad batted-ball luck could sink him. Diaz is the only one chasing him, but .016 is a good margin to make up.
Let’s take a moment to highlight how great Alvarez has been. We aren’t talking about a .320 batting average with expected numbers telling you it’s a lie. In fact, Alvarez has a .329 xBA, for those of you into expected stats. He’s also not had any weakness against lefties, where he’s posted a .265 batting average.
Via Baseball Savant
Look at how beautiful this spray chart is. Power to all fields. How do you beat this guy? Break the strike zone into nine sections: three top, three middle, and three lower. There’s only two areas of the zone where he’s hitting under .300. If you can dot the top outside corner, congrats, you have a chance.
MVP Race
The award that most people consider the top achievement, especially for position players, in all of baseball. The Most Valuable Player. If you win the Triple Crown, you automatically win the MVP, right? Well, in this day and age, yes.
Of the 10 Triple Crown winners, only six have won the MVP. However, the past four Triple Crown winners (Mantle ’56, Robinson ’66, Yastrzemski ’67, Cabrera ’12) have all won the MVP. Poor Ted Williams, the only player with two Triple Crown wins, did not claim the MVP in either season.
I’d go ahead and say if Yordan Alvarez wins the Triple Crown, he will also secure the MVP. But others are chasing.
MVP Votes as of this week:
Alvarez (181 points), Caminero (117), Witt Jr. (89), Contreras (49), Rice (43)
We are looking at a two-horse race in which Alvarez has a two-length lead. Batting average must be more important to voters than it likely is to you. I get it, although I do not appreciate the stat in the same way as other metrics; if you are leading in the other key categories while hitting .320, it should mean something.
I’m sure some people would want to discuss defense, but that topic is tired and proven to not carry the same weight. Miguel Cabrera wasn’t winning the award with defense. Of the past 15 MVP winners, only Mookie Betts in 2018 paired the award with a Gold Glove. That doesn’t mean the others were bad defenders, but I think offense is the obvious driver.
If Caminero catches or surpasses Alvarez in home runs and/or RBI, will it make a difference? How about if the Astros fall out of the race? Will that matter? Pete Alonso doesn’t have a shot to make a run, does he?
Questions we will have to wait to get answers to. But in my opinion, Alvarez is a runaway for the award. So long as his final numbers are at least close to Caminero and his average continues to be near the top of the league, I think the voters will side with Alvarez.
Final Thoughts
Sometimes I catch myself getting so tied down by other parts of the game that I forget to sit back and appreciate what we are seeing. Sure, we do get that reminder a lot when Ohtani’s brilliance is being discussed, but let’s not forget to do the same with Alvarez.
Who knows if we will have a baseball season in 2027. Right now, the odds are not looking great. If we are going to miss a summer of baseball, then I’m cheering for this one to include Alvarez putting his name in the record books.
All stats and rankings were taken prior to play on August 30.
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