Dylan Cease Is Staring Down His First Cy Young Award

It’s crazy to think that people were questioning the Toronto Blue Jays when they signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. Now, in August, the only question should be, “Is he winning the AL Cy Young?”

It’s a two-man race for the best pitcher in the American League, and it’s definitely a close race right now. Both Cease and Cam Schlittler have strong cases for the award (what Schlittler is doing in his first full season is remarkable), but Cease might have a slight edge.

Here’s why the trophy should make its way north of the border.

Strikeouts Tell the Story

Throughout his career, Cease has always excelled at punching out batters (shockingly, he’s never led the league in strikeouts). This year, he’s on a whole different level. His 201 strikeouts and 13.1 SO9 both lead the AL and are second-best in MLB (behind Jacob Misiorowski).

Thankfully, Misiorowski is in the NL, so Cease doesn’t have to get compared to him, and we can ignore him. Phew.

While Schlittler might be right behind Cease with 189 Ks, he’s done so in far more innings (152 vs. 137.2), as Cease missed two starts earlier in the season with a left hamstring strain. So, how has Cease been so elite at racking up strikeouts?

Cease has thrown six different pitches this year (four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, knuckle curve, sinker, and sweeper), but it’s his bread and butter (four-seam and slider) that have been carving batters up. Of Cease’s 201 strikeouts, 154 have come on those two pitches, and pretty evenly as well (77 for each). That tracks, because 67% of the time, he’s throwing one of those two.

The slider in particular has an argument for being the best pitch in baseball. This season, it has a run value of +23, the second-best for any pitch in MLB (behind the aforementioned Misiorowski’s four-seamer). In fact, the next-highest slider is +16 (Chase Burns), showing just how elite it is.

It has the fourth-lowest xBA at .159 (shockingly, Patrick Corbin’s slider is third), second-lowest xSLG at .216, fourth-lowest xwOBA at .206, and third-lowest hard-hit rate at 23.2%.

His tertiary pitch (which is thrown almost exclusively against lefties) has also been a strong addition to his repertoire. The changeup (which Cease threw only 37 times in 2025) is now being used 19% of the time against left-handed hitters, with solid results. It’s been sneakily deadly; opponents have a measly .148 xBA against it, and its 26.1% hard-hit rate is second-best among his pitches.

Consistency Is Key

One of the biggest warnings for Cease was his apparent inability to string together consistent starts. Of his 32 starts in 2025, he pitched six-plus innings 11 times, and did so consecutively only four times. Over his career, his reputation was as a starter with wicked stuff (he had struck out 200+ batters five times in a row coming into 2026), but a lack of command at times (Cease led all pitchers in walks in both 2020 and 2022).

Cease has already pitched six-plus innings more frequently in 2026 (12), which includes his two starts in which he pitched into the ninth and allowed just one hit. He’s also had fewer short starts (10 starts under five innings in 2025, three in 2026).

This season, his walk-related issues have dissipated. Has he still issued a ton of free passes? Yes. Has he been incredibly efficient at limiting the damage afterward? Also yes. Cease is tied for the seventh-most walks issued (59); however, his 3.41 SO/BB is the second-highest of his career.

He’s also been elite at limiting hard contact. I mentioned his hard-hit rate earlier, but to really put that into perspective, he’s only allowed nine home runs this year (down from 21 last year). His HR/9 (0.6) not only leads the AL but is tied for the best in baseball, and his 85.8 mph exit velocity puts him in the top 3% of the league.

Home Stretch

There’s still a month left in the season, and a very big series that could set the tone for the Cy Young race. August 21-23 will be the final time this season that the Blue Jays will see Schlittler and the Yankees will see Cease. With both pitchers putting up such strong numbers this season, their starts could be what propels one over the other.

There are some numbers that favor Schlittler (walks allowed, ERA, WHIP), but others that make Cease seem like the easy choice (strikeouts, FIP, hard-hit rate). If it wasn’t tough enough to choose, both are worth almost the exact same fWAR (4.9 for Schlittler, 4.6 for Cease).

If you’re asking me, Schlittler has tons of great years ahead of him (likely with multiple Cy Youngs among them). With my homer glasses fully on, Cease seems to be the best choice.