How Can the Blue Jays Fix Jeff Hoffman?
Hoffman still has amazing stuff in his right arm. Here's what Toronto can do to help him attain results that match his talent.
| | 
During the 2025 season, the Toronto Blue Jays were just two outs away from history. They had outplayed the Los Angeles Dodgers in an absolutely thrilling, seven-game World Series and were prepared to shut the door dramatically.
However, disaster struck when Miguel Rojas slugged a game-tying solo home run in a full count off the team’s closer, Jeff Hoffman. This home run eventually resulted in the game going to extra innings, where the Dodgers won this legendary World Series.
Since that moment, Hoffman has struggled to get back on track and become the elite closer he was only a few seasons ago. In fact, he even lost the closer role after a rough start earlier this season, which was yet another devastating blow to the right-handed pitcher.
Typically, situations adjacent to Hoffman’s are tough to rebound from, but in his case, there’s a light potentially revealing itself on the other end of the tunnel. With patience from the Blue Jays, his season is certainly salvageable, and things aren’t nearly as dark as they may seem.
Let’s take a closer look at Hoffman’s struggles so far in 2026 and attempt to explain how the Blue Jays can fix his disappointing campaign and salvage some of the all-star potential he still possesses.
Stats updated prior to Hoffman’s latest outing on May 23.
Toronto Must Remain Patient
The first of the “big three” overarching themes we’ll explore to figure out how the Blue Jays can get the most out of Jeff Hoffman may seem quite simple at first. The first key to his success is to simply be patient, which may seem easier said than done, but he deserves some grace.
You may be asking yourself, “What exactly does this mean?” It’s a fair question.
For starters, Hoffman is getting incredibly unlucky right now, and that sentence may not even fully do it justice. He’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the entire sport this season, as the difference between his expected stats and actual numbers is vast.
Through 22 innings this season, Hoffman has registered an ERA of 5.32, and opponents have posted a wOBA of .355 against him. On the surface, these are some of the worst marks around the league, but the underlying data suggests a whole other story that cannot be told by just using these metrics.
Hoffman’s expected ERA currently sits at only 2.89, which is one of the widest discrepancies for a relief pitcher in the sport. On top of that, his opponents have registered an xwOBA of .272, a number far below his actual wOBA of .355.
While this should already begin to indicate Hoffman’s sheer unluckiness, it runs even deeper. Hoffman’s BABIP currently sits at .473, a mind-boggling level. For reference, this isn’t just the highest mark for any reliever in baseball (min. 20 IP), but it beats Michael Lorenzen’s .396 BABIP, the highest mark for any starting pitcher in baseball (min. 20 IP) by 77 points.
Even though this is already head-turning in its own right, the highest career BABIP for a hitter in baseball history (min. 1,000 PA) belongs to Ty Cobb at .383, meaning Hoffman’s BABIP is 90 points higher than the MLB record for a hitter.
This is far from a sustainable pace, especially when looking deeper at Hoffman’s underlying numbers. For example, he’s registered a hard-hit rate of only 31% (87th percentile), a barrel rate of 7.0%, and an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph.
Honing in on his exit velocity specifically, if this pace holds, it’ll be the lowest mark opponents have registered against him since 2017. He also has yet to allow a batted ball over 107.2 mph; his maximum exit velocity allowed this season is currently the lowest of his career.
Hoffman is currently generating some of the most whiffs, chases, and strikeouts of his career as well, which is a good indicator that his poor surface-level numbers will subside in due time. His whiff rate of 40% is 8.4 points higher than his mark last season, and both his chase and strikeout rates follow a very similar trend.
Even if you zoom in close enough to examine Hoffman’s individual pitch performances, the same trend holds. Hoffman has thrown three of his four pitches more than 24% of the time, and opponents haven’t posted a better xwOBA than wOBA against a single one.
The most egregious example? Hoffman’s four-seam fastball, which he uses nearly 40% of the time, has generated a 100-point difference between its xwOBA and wOBA.
Although it may take time, Hoffman’s numbers will certainly begin to normalize with more innings under his belt. Patience will be key for the Blue Jays as they wait, and the numbers indicate that the result will be well worth it.
The Blue Jays Need to Define Hoffman’s Role
The next key for the Blue Jays is also relatively simple, but something they need to fine-tune in the coming weeks to maximize Hoffman’s success. The Blue Jays desperately need to define a role for him and leave less room for questions regarding how he’s used.
As previously mentioned, Hoffman lost the closer role on April 24 of this year, and ever since he lost the job, the Blue Jays have been using a “closer by committee.” He’s been sharing the ninth-inning role with Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers.
Varland, especially, has pitched himself into discussions as one of the best relievers in the American League. Through 27.2 innings pitched, Varland has registered an ERA of just 0.65, a FIP of 1.18, and a strikeout rate of 36.7%. It seems like every single outing, he looks more and more like the right choice for leverage situations.
If the Blue Jays were to commit to using Hoffman in a setup scenario, it may help introduce some consistency in his day-to-day routine, something he doesn’t currently have. Most big league relievers have routinely stressed the importance of a more stable outline of when they’ll be used, and the fact that they feel far more comfortable when this is the case.
This may be even more beneficial for both sides as Hoffman waits for his bad luck to subside, as he could avoid more serious, make-or-break scenarios by being in a setup role. While he could still find himself in leverage, he’ll be able to avoid blown saves in this role, allowing Varland to take the reins.
Should Hoffman Go All-In on the Sinker?
Personally, I believe the two biggest keys to Hoffman’s success are patience and defining a role for him late in games. But, there’s one last thing that the Blue Jays should at least give some thought to, and that’s the idea that Hoffman could explore going all-in on his sinker.
During my deep dive into Hoffman’s numbers for this story, I noticed a very peculiar trend: His four-seam fastball was getting significantly more arm-side run. This is a super interesting trend that immediately grabbed my attention, as these types of changes in pitch shapes don’t typically happen seemingly overnight.
Digging deeper, Hoffman has lowered his release point six degrees from 2025, moving from 37 degrees to 31 degrees in 2026. This explains why he’s suddenly seeing two inches more horizontal movement on his fastball, as a lower arm slot tends to produce these results.
This has allowed for a very unique shape to his fastball, as the pitch typically sits around 16.1 IVB and 14 IVB. In other words, Hoffman is almost throwing a “rising” sinker, as opposed to a traditional four-seamer, which has blurred the line that separates this pitch from his actual sinker.
Likely due to its unfamiliarity, the pitch has generated far better results than it did in 2025. For example, his four-seamer was crushed last season, as opponents put up a hard-hit rate of nearly 53% against it, with a .423 xwOBA and few whiffs along the way.
In 2026, this is a completely different story. His four-seamer has now generated a tremendous hard-hit rate of 26.3%, an xwOBA of only .308, and it’s seen over a 10% increase in whiff rate (34.9%).
Given the change in the pitch’s shape, Hoffman could consider going all-in and leaning more heavily into using his four-seamer as a sinker, or committing to throwing a sinker in place of it altogether.
Even if he wants to keep a distinction between his four-seamer and his sinker, Hoffman could still commit to going all-in on the sinker by simply using his four-seamer in ways he’d typically use his sinker. This could be an offering up and in to righties, as one example.
Regardless, it’ll be an interesting thing to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. Either you’ll see Hoffman begin to increase his sinker usage, or he’ll stick with what’s working and use his unfamiliar fastball shape to keep producing encouraging results.
Become a Member of Just Baseball
Subscribe and upgrade to go ad-free!
* Save 25% by subscribing annually.
Written by
Jay Staph, a huge baseball fan and stat nerd, founded and ran his own baseball writing website, BSBWrites, at just 16-years-old. With focal points around prospects,…