4 SEC Baseball Teams on the Bubble: Can LSU and Vanderbilt Save Their Seasons?

With 10 weekends now in the books, we’re hitting the homestretch of the 2026 college baseball regular season. From here, every result is magnified and carries substantial weight as the postseason field takes shape.

Looking at the SEC, nine teams are featured in Just Baseball’s updated Top 25. Ten teams have a top-30 RPI, and eight teams have already reached 10 wins in league play.

This past weekend helped create a touch of separation. Entering Thursday, there were 10 teams hovering between six and eight SEC wins. There are now just three teams in that category.

After the conference sent a record 13 teams to the 2025 NCAA Tournament, it looks less likely that it’ll match that number this season. With just four weekends to play, four SEC résumés look quite bubbly. Let’s discuss.

LSU

Record: 23-18 (6-12 SEC)
RPI: 65
Remaining SEC Schedule: at Mississippi State, vs. South Carolina, at Georgia, vs. Florida

Jay Johnson has won the College World Series in two of the last three seasons. He’s considered one of, if not the best head coach in college baseball. He’s a competitive, cold-blooded winner who’s never been one to wave the white flag.

However, some of his comments after Friday night’s 10-4 loss to Texas A&M sure sounded like someone who understands that this is not LSU’s year:

“It’s a deep-rooted thing,” he said of LSU’s offensive struggles. “We’re off, and this will never happen again.”

“I made some mistakes in constructing the team.”

Ouch.

The Tigers were swept at home — for the first time since 2022 — in convincing fashion by the surging Aggies. The aggregate score finished 22-8, with LSU pushing across just a pair of runs on both Saturday and Sunday. It wasn’t pretty, and that’s nothing new for the defending champs.

LSU’s 51 errors on the year — it now has a .964 fielding percentage — are the second-most in the SEC. The team ERA for the season now sits at 5.03, the third-worst mark in the league. LSU arms have thrown 59 wild pitches, which easily leads the league, and they’ve now walked 191 batters, the third-most.

Those are just the preliminary numbers that hardly dig into the root of the problem for the Tigers. The body language has been noticeably poor for a majority of the season, and at no point in league play has LSU felt like the perennial juggernaut that we’ve come to know.

Expected impact corner infield transfers Zach Yorke and Trent Caraway have combined for just seven hits in SEC play. Caraway, second baseman Seth Dardar and veteran outfielder Chris Stanfield are all fighting injury. Weekend starting pitcher Cooper Moore (3.38 ERA in 32 IP) went down with an arm injury early in SEC play and was officially ruled out for the rest of the season on Monday night.

Weekend starters Casan Evans and William Schmidt both now have an ERA over 5.00 in SEC play. Just five arms have tallied 10-plus innings in league action, one of whom is Gavin Guidry, who’s now allowed 17 earned in 15.2 IP.

The Tigers were 6-6 in SEC play after winning two of three in a wild series at Tennessee. Since then, they’ve been swept on the road at Ole Miss and at home vs. A&M. Three of their final four weekend series feature ranked opponents, two of which will come on the road.

To reach the expected 13-win threshold, LSU needs to go 7-5 the rest of the way. Say it sweeps South Carolina at home — which at this point is far from a guarantee, LSU is now 17-11 at Alex Box — then it would potentially need four wins against Mississippi State, Georgia and Florida.

Considering the RPI has now tumbled to 65, however, would 13 SEC wins even be enough? Only Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Mizzou have a worse RPI at this stage. The Tigers’ lack of pitching is not conducive to making a run at the SEC Tournament if it needs to scrape across a couple more wins to feel like it has a shot to make the Field of 64.

It’s hard not to sell LSU up the river at this juncture. Perhaps Johnson has a last-gasp act of wizardry in his back pocket, but it’ll take a mighty potion to save this purple and gold ship from missing its first regional since 2011.

Tennessee

Record: 26-14 (8-10 SEC)
RPI: 31
Remaining SEC Schedule: vs. Alabama, at Kentucky, vs. Texas, at Oklahoma

Battered and bruised, Tennessee found a way to get up off the mat two weekends ago, limping into Starkville and leaving with a sweep of a then-top-10 Mississippi State team. For most teams, that’s the catalyst you’ve been hunting for. Something that gives you new life and sends your season in a permanent positive direction.

Not the Volunteers.

Returning to Knoxville, Tennessee swiftly dropped two of three to a rising Ole Miss squad over the weekend, just about souring any momentum it may have acquired while in the Magnolia State. The Vols gave up 20 runs in the series but ducked a sweep thanks to six home runs in Sunday’s 13-5 win.

It’s been a tumultuous first campaign in charge for Josh Elander, and that’s putting it mildly. Six of Tennessee’s 10 SEC losses have come by two runs or less.

It was walked off three times by Vanderbilt, dropped a pair of heartbreakers at home to LSU and lost a rubber match at Georgia via a home run robbery. Not all of those games were “coin flips,” but in another season, at least one of those games likely falls Tennessee’s way. Every win carries substantial weight in this league.

The aforementioned sweep at Mississippi State provided a gust of fresh oxygen for Rocky Top. This past weekend was a reminder of where this Tennessee team sits in the SEC hierarchy, promptly sucking plenty of air back into the void.

Tennessee is now 4-5 at home in SEC play. It’s hitting .241 as a team in 18 league games, a bottom-five mark, and it doesn’t have an everyday starter hitting over .300. Vols pitching has surrendered 35 homers in those 18 games.

Having said all that, Tennessee has everything to play for, and there have been some encouraging signs. After a dreadful start, sophomore catcher/first baseman Levi Clark is now hitting .278 with five homers and 16 RBI in league play. The utility duo of Garrett Wright and Blake Grimmer missed the start of the year, but both are now hitting over .300 for the season and have combined for 30 extra-base hits and 38 RBI.

It’s not been consistent in league play for the starting trio of Landon Mack (5.87 ERA in 30.2 IP), Evan Blanco (4.33 in 35.1) and Tegan Kuhns (3.58 in 27.2), but they’ve all shown flashes, taken the ball every weekend and offered at least a little length. In the bullpen, freshman lefty Cam Appenzeller (2.81 in 25.2) has been a killer and one of the best relievers in the league.

All four of Tennessee’s remaining league opponents are ahead of it in the RPI and will provide 12 chances to stack some quality wins. This weekend at home vs. Alabama and the ensuing trip to Lexington to face Kentucky will likely tell the tale for Elander and Co.

Kentucky

Record: 26-12 (8-10 SEC)
RPI: 29
Remaining SEC Schedule: at South Carolina, vs. Tennessee, at Florida, vs. Arkansas

Kentucky was a surprise walk-off grand slam from freshman Braxton Van Cleave away from being swept at home by Vanderbilt over the weekend.

The Cats were again without first baseman and top bat Hudson Brown (.358/.493/.509). Head coach Nick Mingione and star shortstop Tyler Bell were both ejected from a game, with the latter forced to miss Sunday’s rubber game as a result. Sunday starter Nate Harris was listed as questionable at the beginning of the weekend, taken off the availability report, then ruled out ahead of his start.

Catching depth is thin. The pitching situation is not good. The Cats’ team ERA in SEC play is now 6.25, the second-worst mark in the league, and they’ve struck out a league-low 140 batters in those 18 games.

This was supposed to be a major season for Ben Cleaver, but he has amassed just 28.1 innings in nine starts and also didn’t pitch over the weekend. Nile Adcock (2.49 ERA in 21.2 IP) is the lone reliever with 15-plus innings that has a sub-4.50 ERA. There aren’t many high-leverage arms to lean on, point blank. If not for ace Jaxon Jelkin (3.22 in 58.2), the Bluegrass arm barn would be horseless.

In short, the season is quickly looking bleak in Lexington. After sweeping Alabama to begin SEC play, Kentucky has now dropped five series in a row. It hasn’t been swept itself, but it has dropped a home series to bottom-feeder Mizzou, a road series at LSU, which somehow only looks worse, and now a home series to Vandy, another club that’s not guaranteed a postseason berth.

UK fell 10 spots in the RPI, but it still remains in good shape thanks to non-conference series against St. John’s (120) and The Citadel (54), as well as early-season road trips to UNC Greensboro (179) and Evansville (171) to go with the SEC slate.

In 2025, Kentucky clawed its way into the tournament with a 29-24 (13-17 SEC) record. If it ended with 13 SEC wins again this season, it has once again set itself up to be in good RPI shape and will likely have the metrics edge against other bubble teams.

This upcoming trip to South Carolina is massive. While the Gamecocks are 19-22 (5-13 SEC), they’ve been quite pesky since the firing of Paul Mainieri and recently went to the Show-Me State and swept the same Mizzou team that won two games at Kentucky Proud Park.

Kentucky could ease some tensions with a winning weekend in Columbia. If it drops a sixth-straight series, though, then we’re looking at a team in dire straits with fading postseason hopes.

Vanderbilt

Record: 24-17 (9-9 SEC)
RPI: 72
Remaining SEC Schedule: vs. Texas, at Alabama, at Missouri, vs. South Carolina

There may not be a more intriguing résumé than Vanderbilt’s come selection Monday.

The Commodores won their third SEC series over the weekend, going on the road and taking two of three at Kentucky. They’ve also swept Tennessee in Nashville and took two at home against LSU. You’ll notice all three of those teams are mentioned above in this article.

Therein lies the problem for Tim Corbin and his team: there’s not much for Vandy to hang its hat on as it tries to bolster its stock late in the year.

Plenty of teams that it faced early in the season that were supposed to forge a strong RPI have unexpectedly struggled. As previously noted last week by The Tennessean’s Aria Gerson, all of the following teams that have played VU currently have an RPI outside the top 50: Texas Tech, UC Irvine, Arizona, Troy, LSU, Indiana and Xavier.

An upcoming midweek game at Louisville (RPI No. 117) was expected to be a better potential booster, too. Now look at the two teams that the ‘Dores will finish the year against: Missouri (113) and South Carolina (88). Not gonna do you favors, either.

That doesn’t leave much room for error. That 13-win mark in SEC play doesn’t get the job done in this scenario. Getting to 14 might not, either. The metrics won’t be favorable if that’s where things finish before heading to Hoover.

Taking care of business against the Tigers and Gamecocks would alleviate some nerves, but if Vandy enters those weekends needing multiple wins apiece, then the pressure will be palpable, even if it’s facing the bottom two teams in the league.

Vandy’s team ERA in SEC play is now a league-worst 7.74. That’ll come as no surprise if you’ve watched it play this spring. It doesn’t have a single pitcher with an ERA under 5.00 in those 18 games. In its nine SEC wins, Vandy is averaging over 10 runs per game. It has to slug its way past teams, full stop.

There’s a humongous opportunity on deck as Texas (2) comes to Hawkins Field this weekend. Vandy is 6-3 at home in SEC play. The Longhorns tote elite talent all over the field. It’ll be up to Brodie Johnston (.370/.454/.691), Braden Holcomb (.315/.402/.623), Mike Mancini (.305/.450/.648) and the VU bats to help streamline their team’s path to the postseason.