Top 10 Best Pitchers in the AL Central for the 2026 MLB Season
The AL Central is the home of the two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner. Find out who joins him on Just Baseball's list of the top 10 arms in the division.
| | 
We’ve already listed the best position players in every division heading into 2026. Now, Just Baseball is turning to the men on the mound and ranking the top 10 pitchers in all six divisions. Next up is the division of the two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner, the AL Central.
Who Just Missed the Top 10?
Kansas City Royals – Noah Cameron
Cameron enjoyed an extremely successful rookie season with the Royals in 2025, producing a 2.99 ERA/1.8 fWAR over 138.1 innings. The southpaw turned into a staple in the rotation as he looks to follow it up with a strong sophomore campaign.
The process metrics weren’t nearly as rosy for Cameron, however. A miniscule 20% strikeout rate paired with a below average 94 Stuff+ marker on his arsenal leaves room for negative regression. His expected ERA of 4.10 warns of what could be coming.
The projection models at FanGraphs agree, as Cameron is projected for an ERA anywhere between 4.08-4.66 in 2026. That’s hardly a death sentence, though, as there are plenty of starters who outperform their projections thanks to deceptiveness, sequencing, and park factors. All of those things just so happen to be in Cameron’s favor, too.
Chicago White Sox – Grant Taylor
There’s a very strong likelihood that this is the one and only time Grant Taylor will find himself outside of the top 10 pitchers in the AL Central.
Coming off of an extremely strong rookie year, Taylor pitched to a 2.91 xERA/1.43 FIP while striking out an outrageous 34.4% of the hitters he faced. His arsenal is headlined by a dominant four-seam fastball and wipeout spike-curve.
Both of those offerings produced a sub .200 xBA, sub .300 xSLG, xwOBA’s of .262 and .191 respectively, and whiff rates north of 30%.
The White Sox have said they plan to use Taylor in multi-inning spurts in an effort to coax 100 innings out of him in 2026 before potentially transitioning him back into a starter for 2027 and beyond. The arm talent is elite, as is his makeup. Expect to see him inside the top five this time next year.
10. Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals
2025 Stats: 31 GS, 172.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.66 FIP, 6.57 K/9, 2.35 BB/9
Michael Wacha is your stereotypical mid/back of the rotation starter who takes the ball and gives you good, quality, boring innings. Nothing about his stuff stands out. He posts well below average strikeout rates, and that’s okay.
What Wacha doesn’t have in terms of swing-and-miss, he makes up for with elite hard contact suppression. He ranked in the 89th percentile in both average exit velocity and hard-hit% against. His arsenal consists of a six-pitch mix that he uses to his full advantage to keep hitters off balance.
Wacha’s taken full advantage of Kauffman Stadium being his home park in each of his first two seasons as a Royal, and despite the fact that the walls are being moved in for 2026, there’s enough evidence to suggest Wacha will continue to be an effective innings eater who produces a three-win season.
9. Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
2025 Stats: 26 GS, 145.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.09 FIP, 7.74 K/9, 3.41 BB/9
Seth Lugo transitioned back into a full-time starter in 2023 for the first time since 2017 and enjoyed two extremely effective seasons, one with the Padres, one with the Royals, before stumbling in 2025.
While Lugo’s 4.15 ERA appears more than serviceable on the surface, everything under the hood was a raging red flag. Lugo was getting barreled, giving up extremely hard contact, most of which was in the air, while missing no bats. His 5.17 xERA tells the tale of what could have been.
Still, Lugo is a crafty veteran with the largest pitch mix in the sport, having up to 10 different offerings in his arsenal. The Royals are also a much-improved roster from a year ago, further incentivizing Lugo to have a bounce-back season, something he’s fully capable of.
8. Cade Smith, Cleveland Guardians
2025 Stats: 76 G, 73.2 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.95 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 12.71 K/9, 2.32 BB/9
Cade Smith is one of the top three-to-five closers in the sport. Period. Open up his Savant page, and you’ll find a bloody red profile in all the right places. Armed with an elite fastball, splitter, and sweeper, Smith gets whiffs on every offering.
This level of stuff, paired with his command, is astounding. Smith generates 7.4 feet of extension (98th percentile) with a fastball that sits 96.4 MPH with 16.5 inches of IVB. He produced a sterling 28.3% K-BB ratio while holding opponents to a .143 batting average against.
You would think losing arguably the top closer in the sport, Emmanuel Clase, would be a crippling blow to a franchise. Instead, the Guardians just replaced him with another upper-echelon arm.
7. Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
2025 Stats: 31 GS, 182.1 IP, 4.24 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.34 FIP, 8.00 K/9, 2.67 BB/9
2025 was an uneven year for Tanner Bibee. He produced the highest ERA of his career, the lowest strikeout rate of his career, but had the lowest hard-hit rate against him. His xERA of 3.62 was 60 points lower than his actual and the best of his career.
While the swing-and-miss aspect of Bibee’s game dropped off significantly, he produced the best groundball rate of his career, as it jumped 10% points from 34.6% in 2024 to 44.7% in 2025.
It’s worth noting that September was the best month of Bibee’s season, as he finished extremely strong. He produced a 2.38 FIP, 25.5% K%, and 20.6% K-BB% in the final month as he looks to carry that momentum into 2026.
6. Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
2025 Stats: 20 GS, 116.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.89 FIP, 8.97 K/9, 3.02 BB/9
Early on in 2025, it looked like Kris Bubic was tracking towards a top-five Cy Young voting type of year before a rotator cuff strain to his pitching arm ended his season in July.
Injuries have been the story for Bubic in his early career, having gone under the knife for TJ back in 2023, then experiencing shoulder soreness the following year, before the rotator cuff strain in 2025.
That 2025 was special, though. Bubic elicited an elite level of chase and whiff while keeping the ball on the ground and away from barrels. An elite combination for any pitcher, but especially a guy like Bubic, who may not have elite velocity but makes up for it with fantastic pitch shapes.
5. Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
2025 Stats: 31 GS, 167.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 4.39 FIP, 9.29 K/9, 4.46 BB/9
It feels like we’ve been waiting for that true breakout from Gavin Williams ever since he debuted in 2023, and it would appear we got it in the second half of 2025.
From the All-Star break on, Williams pitched to a 2.18 ERA/3.73 FIP/3.52 SIERA to go along with a 27.6% strikeout rate, while opponents hit just .188 against him. The main change Williams made was decreasing the usage of his four-seam fastball and upping the usage of both his curveball and sweeper, both of which returned elite results from a quality of contact and bat missing standpoint.
Pitching in the AL Central, Williams has the benefit of facing some lesser offenses more often than not. His well-above-average stuff should provide a stable buffer to multiple strong seasons in the coming years.
4. Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
2025 Stats: 30 GS, 171 IP, 3.42 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.74 FIP, 10.21 K/9, 2.05 BB/9
Joe Ryan has been the definition of consistency ever since he made his MLB debut in 2021. In 641.1 career innings, he’s pitched to a 3.79 ERA, 3.36 xERA, 3.74 FIP, and 3.49 SIERA while producing elite ratios (27.6 K%/5.7 BB%/21.9% K-BB%).
Ryan’s deep repertoire of six pitches, paired with elite control and command and the ability to miss bats, gives him a tremendous mix of both floor and ceiling. In 2025, he logged the most innings of his career (171) and appeared to fatigue a little bit down the stretch as he struggled to close out his year in September.
Heading into 2026, he’ll be asked to anchor a Twins pitching staff that’ll be without Pablo Lopez for the entirety of the season. Ryan will be looking to keep doing what he’s doing, knowing that the possibility of him finishing the year in a different uniform is a strong one.
3. Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
2025 Stats: 13 GS, 61.2 IP, 4.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.50 FIP, 14.30 K/9, 2.92 BB/9
Here are Cole Ragans’ ranks among starters with a minimum of 60 innings pitched in 2025:
- K%: 1st
- K-BB%: 1st
- SIERA: 1st
- xERA: 4th
- FIP: 3rd
- xFIP: 1st
Ragans was utterly dominant once he returned from his rotator cuff injury. The stuff was elite; he struck out more hitters on a rate basis than anybody. His changeup produced a 50%(!!!) whiff rate while the expected batting average of his four main offerings averaged at .192 against.
Health is the only reason keeping him from being second on this list, and it should surprise no one if he takes over the #1 spot in 2027, assuming health and Tarik Skubal departing Detroit in free agency.
2. Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers
2025 Stats: 31 GS, 192 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.37 FIP, 8.77 K/9, 3.19 BB/9
Much like Joe Ryan, Framber Valdez has been a model of consistency his entire career. Nobody in the sport is able to induce as many groundballs as Valdez has. His bowling ball sinker has been a staple pitch in his arsenal for seven-plus seasons.
Framber’s coming off of a four-win season with the Astros in which he logged 192 innings. His ratios remained extremely consistent from where they typically have been. He pitched to a 3.66 ERA, induced a 59.4% groundball rate, and chewed up innings for an Astros staff that was depleted with injuries.
His first season away from Houston will be intriguing to watch, paired up with Tarik Skubal to combine for a lethal one-two punch, the Tigers will be relying *heavily* on their rotation to carry them to an AL Central title.
1. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
2025 Stats: 31 GS, 195.1 IP, 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.45 FIP, 11.10 K/9, 1.52 BB/9
The best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball pitching in a contract year. What more needs to be said? It’s Tarik Skubal. It was always going to be Tarik Skubal.
Become a Member of Just Baseball
Subscribe and upgrade to go ad-free!
* Save 25% by subscribing annually.
Written by
Damon's ultimate passion lies in Baseball. An aspiring sports journalist, Damon has been a die hard Blue Jays fan since essentially birth but prides himself from…