Who Will Win the Battle for the Reds’ Fifth Rotation Spot?
The Reds have four rotation spots locked up and several arms vying to be the final member of their starting staff.
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If you followed the Cincinnati Reds in 2025, you know that the rotation is what drove them into the playoffs. Hunter Greene continued to cement himself as an ace, Nick Lodolo had his most complete season, Andrew Abbott continued to beat the expected stats, and Brady Singer was steady.
Those four arms will all return in 2026, but who will take the fifth spot in the rotation is not as clear. Last season, Nick Martinez filled innings until the Reds acquired Zack Littell at the deadline, and Littell closed out the season, and postseason, in the rotation.
Heading into 2026, both Littell and Martinez will be playing elsewhere, and the door is now open for younger arms to battle for a spot. Although having a veteran with a high floor certainly carries value, the upside of the younger options is shaping up to be the most intriguing storyline of spring training.
Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, and to a lesser extent, Chase Petty are the high-profile prospects vying for a spot, while Brandon Williamson and Julian Aguiar are coming off injury with less prospect flair but still talent of their own.
I’m sure we will see most, if not all, of these arms before the season is over, but only one will claim an Opening Day rotation spot.
Chase Burns Offers the Highest Ceiling
Even if you have only watched one inning of Chase Burns pitch, you can tell why he was selected second overall in 2024. A 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame with a fastball that averages 99 mph and breaches 100 mph often. Pair that velocity with 18 inches of induced vertical break, and you have the makings of an elite pitch.
Burns leverages his fastball high in the zone and allows the “ride” to carry the pitch above barrels, resulting in a 25% whiff rate on the pitch in 2025. Working off the high fastball was a slider that held batters to a .197 average and 44% whiff rate, making for a combination that changed eye levels and gave Burns about an eight mph difference in the offerings.
Against lefties, Burns will also mix in a changeup to help neutralize the platoon advantage. It was a pitch that graded out well but was not heavily used, mostly due to his transitioning to the bullpen later in the season. His stuff is well above average, and the command, although not perfect, looked strong for a rookie. I can only imagine he’ll continue to improve over time.
Last season, Burns flashed huge potential at times but did get hit around in two road starts, one being his second career appearance. Overall, the numbers landed at a 4.57 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 13.92 K/9, and 3.32 BB/9. An impressive first stint in the majors, but I think he has another level he can reach.
In terms of 2026 upside, I think there’s a good chance Burns finishes as the second best pitcher on the staff. He’s that good. It will ultimately come down to growing pains and managing his innings limit. But, for my money, Burns is the best of the bunch and offers the highest upside.
Rhett Lowder Is Healthy With Something To Prove
Lowder, the seventh overall pick in 2023, doesn’t come with the type of profile you might see from a typical top 10 pitcher. He doesn’t have a 99 mph fastball and will not rack up strikeouts at the rate that someone like Burns will.
However, that doesn’t mean he cannot be productive, or that his ceiling is limited. Lowder has a more balanced pitch mix, with a four-seamer, slider, sinker, and changeup that he spreads more evenly than someone like Burns. The stuff is good enough to produce above-average swing and miss numbers, but he relies more on command and pitch sequencing to get batters out.
His first stint in the majors came in 2024, starting six late-season games and pitching to a 1.17 ERA and 3.10 FIP across 30.2 innings. That sample saw an unartistic amount of walks and only a 6.43 K/9, which is lower than I would anticipate for Lowder’s standard going forward.
His losing most of 2025 due to injury not only hurt the Reds but hurt Lowder himself and his development. Now, back to full strength, Lowder is in camp ready to prove that he is every bit as deserving as Burns of the fifth spot.
What I like about Lowder is his ability to generate groundballs. Across 22 starts in 2024 (Double-A), Lowder racked up a 51.7% groundball rate, and his sinker, which could see an uptick in usage, is a big reason. When you pitch in Great American Ball Park, having a knack for keeping the ball on the ground is a big advantage.
My main concern with Lowder is not talent, but innings. I think he is good enough to slot into the rotation immediately, but he was only able to pitch 9.1 frames last season. How long until he is ready to be built up to a full workload? What kind of inning restriction will the Reds have him on?
Managing innings in the minors, where the results of the game do not matter as much as in the majors, is easier. If the organization wanted to start him out on three or four-inning starts to begin the year, “saving” his innings for the first injury to the major league club, I could get behind that plan.
Regardless of where Lowder starts 2026, the Reds are going to need him at some point. The rotation has some injury history baked into it, and Lowder can help bridge the gap if (once) an injury takes place. If nothing else, he’s a talented depth arm that gives the Reds comfort when making IL decisions.
Brandon Williamson Looks Improved
Since joining the Reds ahead of the 2022 season, Williamson has seen his fair share of ups and downs. It started with control issues in 2022, a solid stint in Cincinnati in 2023, then 30 innings since due to Tommy John surgery.
The soon-to-be 28-year-old lefty is not lighting up radar guns, but does come with a changeup that can be a weapon and a curveball that I have always thought had more to offer than we have seen so far. However, the Williamson that came to camp this year is already generating reports about higher velocity and a level of health we have not seen from him since he joined the Reds organization.
According to Charlie Goldsmith, Williamson is already sitting mid-90s to begin camp. His shoulder is at full strength, which has helped his arm slot find a more natural spot, and he used the offseason to clean up his mechanics. Goldsmith provides quotes and information that I think are crucial. You can read the full report here.
To me, Williamson does not offer the same ceiling as Lowder or Burns, but he does have a high enough floor to make sense as the fifth starter. I have the same questions about innings as I do with Lowder, which will make managing these arms all the more complicated.
Williamson will need to really impress in spring training and prove his health and velocity are where these reports say they are. If Williamson is sitting in the mid-90s, that only helps separate his fastball and changeup more, which should help produce more swing and miss.
Injury forcing a lower arm slot is something that really caught my eye. If Williamson is back at a higher arm slot, I think that could help his curveball regain the life and movement that made me believe it could be a plus pitch for him.
That’s a lot of “ifs.” I had not fully written off Williamson as a possibility, but I did have him much further behind the other two. Seeing these reports narrows the gap, at least for now.
Chase Petty and Julian Aguiar: Depth Options or Bullpen Pieces?
Both Petty and Aguiar had a rude awakening to their major league careers. Aguiar debuted in 2024, starting seven games and posting a 6.25 ERA. Petty started two games, pitched in three, logging only six innings and a 19.50 ERA. That’s not a typo.
I have always liked Aguiar as a potential back-end option with solid command and a high groundball rate. He can spin it, too. I don’t think he has the stuff to offer a high ceiling, but as a depth starter, you could do much worse. He, too, is coming back from Tommy John surgery and is on the outside looking in for the fifth spot, but still worth mentioning.
Petty was a fairly highly regarded prospect who popped on and off certain top 100 lists but has lost that prospect shine over the past year. Some advanced metrics tell a better story than his 4.00+ ERA in the upper minors, but it all comes down to his four-seam fastball for me.
The velocity sits around 96 mph, which is more than enough, but the movement and command are concerning. To put it in elementary terms, the pitch is just too hittable. His sinker is too similar and does not have the movement to differentiate the two offerings enough for the pitches to work off each other.
via Baseball Savant
The graph above shows induced vertical break for each offering. This is a tiny sample, but you can see how similar the movement profile is where the pitches overlap. The horizontal movement is also similar.
Petty will only be 23 years old this season. He has time to tweak, improve, and eliminate pitches as he develops and learns how to get batters out. I think he needs time in the minors to figure out how to improve his fastball offerings before he should be considered for the rotation.
So, could either Petty or Aguiar move the bullpen? Cincinnati has the depth to make that move if they so choose. I think it’s too soon to push Petty in that direction, and you could argue the same for Aguiar. Where I think it makes sense is using Aguiar as a bulk option if the Reds decide they need someone in that role outside of who they currently have.
Final Thoughts
Take a moment to think about the names I just discussed. Top 10 picks and former top prospects. Pitchers with a legit shot of developing into something much more than a fifth starter. Pretty fun to have these as the options to round out the rotation, right?
The Reds have come a long way from past-their-prime vets battling for rotation jobs. I’d argue Burns, Lowder, and Williamson could find rotation work on at least a third, likely half, of teams in the league. Especially Burns and Lowder.
I do think that, in the end, Burns will claim the final spot. The ceiling, even just for 2026, is so high, and he’s already shown an ability to rack up strikeouts at an elite level. Putting him in the bullpen is a waste of talent at this point in time, and I feel the same about Lowder and Williamson. Let them battle for the first call-up while also managing their injury recoveries in the minors.
The Reds have built their rotation through drafting and developing, and now have, what, a top-five rotation? Maybe top-10? I’m not sure, but I know it’s not bottom five. Regardless of who wins the final spot, there’s legitimate reason to be excited about that pitcher. That’s a pretty great position to be in, isn’t it?
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