The Case for the Red Sox To Trade Jarren Duran
An unbalanced roster leaves Craig Breslow with little choice but to make yet another trade.
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Less than a month before pitchers and catchers will begin reporting to Florida and Arizona, the Boston Red Sox lineup is far from a finished product.
The only external addition they have made thus far has been catcher-turned-first baseman Willson Contreras, whom they added in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals. Having posted an OPS+ of at least 123 in each of the last four seasons, Contreras will provide some much-needed stability to an offense that stumbled down the stretch and was overmatched in the postseason.
The addition of Contreras, however, was immediately offset and then some when it was announced that Alex Bregman would be departing for the Chicago Cubs on a five-year, $175 million deal. Putting aside the obvious leadership vacuum, the loss of Bregman only creates more questions for an infield already brimming with them.
Besides Contreras, the only players that appear locked into a starting spot are shortstop Trevor Story, who averaged just 54 games over his first three seasons in Boston, and former top prospect Marcelo Mayer, who has seen each of his last three seasons end prematurely with injuries and slashed just .154/.185/.231 in an abbreviated major league debut in 2025.
The Red Sox also have some intriguing depth options in lefty-masher Romy Gonzalez and speedster David Hamilton, but both are best suited for a part-time role.
The wild card in all of this is Triston Casas. The hulking first baseman is uncertain for Opening Day after suffering a ruptured patellar tendon in May, though he slashed .256/.357/.480 between 2023 and 2024.
As shorthanded as the Red Sox’s infield currently appears, the outfield has the complete opposite issue. In Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran, the Red Sox have four everyday players for three spots.
The situation is further complicated by the presence of Masataka Yoshida, whose $18 million a year salary all but guarantees he will clog the DH spot for another season, and Kristian Campbell, the former top prospect who appears set to move to the outfield full-time after a dismal performance at second base in 2025.
MassLive’s Chris Cotillo has speculated that the Red Sox are comfortable moving forward with their current group of outfielders, and Breslow backed up that report in his comments at the club’s fan fest on Saturday (per Cotillo).
“[Trading an outfielder] was never likely in my mind,” he said. “We’ve got really talented outfielders. When teams call, that’s what other executives point to. They’re young, they’re controllable, they’re dynamic, they’re talented and can impact games in multiple ways. It’s really nice to be able to say they’re also members of the Boston Red Sox.”
While Breslow may believe that there is a pathway to make all the pieces fit together, the math doesn’t add up. If the Red Sox are adamant about giving Abreu more opportunities against same-side pitchers and keeping Yoshida on the MLB roster, there just aren’t enough at-bats to go around.
The only feasible way to get all four players in the lineup consistently would be to move Rafaela to second base, a position he has played sporadically throughout his career and moonlighted at last year following Mayer’s injury.
Yet, while Rafaela is arguably the game’s best defensive center fielder, he has proven to be just an average infielder (if that), accumulating -8 Outs Above Average at shortstop and 0 at second base over his first three MLB seasons.
Given his volatile and below-league-average offensive profile, Rafaela’s value comes almost entirely from his defensive ability in center field, making a move to second base a poor use of his skillset.
For the Red Sox to properly balance their roster, they will need to trade at least one of their current outfielders, and the process of elimination reveals a clear choice.
While you can never know for certain with Red Sox superstars, Anthony looks poised to take over as the face of the franchise after signing a long-term contract extension and producing an outstanding rookie season.
Rafaela also appears unlikely to be traded after signing his own extension in April 2024, while Yoshida’s contract and lack of versatility will make him impossible to move without the Red Sox either attaching a prospect or eating a large amount of his 2026 and 2027 salaries.
Abreu seemed like a possible trade candidate at the outset of the winter, but comments by manager Alex Cora indicate that the Red Sox view him as a significant part of their 2026 plans.
“If [Abreu] can hit lefties and hit for power and play defense the way he’s done the last few years, he can be the guy,” said Cora.
That leaves Duran, who has been in trade rumors since last summer and looks like an odd fit for the Red Sox’s current roster and contention window. While Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony are all 26 years old or younger, Duran will be entering his age-29 season, a concerning age for a player with a speed-dependent profile.
Though saving a few million dollars shouldn’t be a top priority for a big-market team like the Red Sox, it is worth noting that Duran is set to earn $7.7 million in 2026, while Abreu will be making the league minimum.
With the Red Sox signing Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million deal on Wednesday, their CBT payroll currently projects to be nearly $269 million, the highest mark in franchise history and $4 million over the second threshold for penalties.
Sitting just $15 million below the third threshold and with holes remaining on the roster, trading Duran could be the cleanest way to give themselves some more wiggle room to play with.
Duran is also the worst defender of the four, having accumulated -5 Outs Above Average in left field last season. Oddly enough, Duran has so far been a much better defender in center field, but he will be hard-pressed to find playing time there as long as Rafaela’s offensive production doesn’t land him on the bench.
The issue the Red Sox have run into in Duran trade talks hasn’t been a lack of interest from other teams but rather their unwillingness to move off their initial asking price. Jeff Passan reported that the Red Sox still view Duran as the seven-win player he was during his MVP-contending 2024 season, a sentiment that has not been matched by potential suitors.
In the context of the rest of his career, Duran’s 2024 season looks far more like an outlier than a benchmark moving forward.
The difference between his career-best offensive numbers (.285 batting average, .492 slugging percentage) and expected numbers (.267 xBA, .456 xSLG) indicates a good amount of luck, and his 21.8% strikeout rate in 2024 was at least two and a half points lower than in any other season of his career.
Duran also ranked third in the American League with 2.5 defensive WAR (per Baseball Reference) in 2024, a feat he is unlikely to repeat as he nears his thirties. This is especially true if he is bound to left field, a spot at which he accumulated 0.5 dWAR in 2025.
The far more likely scenario is that Duran is closer to the four-win player he was in 2025 than the seven-win superstar he was in 2024. Though he may not be able to fetch a return like Kansas City Royals ace Cole Ragans, Duran should still be an intriguing option for contenders looking to upgrade their lineups.
Among the most interesting ideas floated in recent weeks would be a package involving Duran and Brayan Bello, a pitch-to-contact right-hander who lacks many of the traits the Red Sox have targeted in their pitching acquisitions, to address the infield hole created by the Bregman departure.
Perhaps this combination of proven major-league talent could be tempting enough to force the Diamondbacks to part with Ketel Marte – even though the second baseman is said to be off the market.
The only thing for certain is that Duran fits other teams far better than he fits the 2026 Red Sox. Aside from the team’s surplus of outfielders, Duran ranked ninth in the American League last season with 169 strikeouts and slashed just .211/.260/.340 against left-handed pitching, two areas in which the Red Sox struggled as a team.
As reluctant as the Red Sox may be to move a team leader at what they feel is an unsatisfactory price, holding on to him for another season would be a risky bet. Should Duran’s performance take another step back, the chances that the Red Sox can get a substantial return for two years of a 30-year-old declining asset will be minimal.
Though there is something to be said for having depth to prepare for an inevitable injury, entering the season with four everyday players for three spots is a poor management of resources. As the oldest, most expensive and least defensively skilled out of the group, Duran should be the player the Red Sox move to balance out their roster and acquire pieces who can help them in 2026 and beyond.
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Daniel Fox is a contributing writer for Just Baseball. He has previously written for Pitcher List, BoSoxInjection, and in the Cape Cod Baseball League. He is…