The Rays Should Break Out of Their Comfort Zone and Extend Junior Caminero
The Tampa Bay Rays have a budding star on their hands with Junior Caminero and the clock is ticking to get him signed to a long-term deal.
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The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t known for making big, splashy multi-year signings or handing out checks with plenty of zeros to superstar players. That might have to change in the near future with their new stud third baseman, Junior Caminero.
If you’re unfamiliar with the Rays’ method of operation, despite a payroll that has continually settled in the bottom third of the league for as long as we can remember, they get the most out of their monetary commitments.
They’ve broken the $90 million payroll threshold once since 2011. That was when it “ballooned” all the way up to $98 million in 2022 (we’ll get to that unfortunate turn of events shortly).
The model small-market franchise, if you’re into that sort of thing, Tampa Bay somehow always seems to be competitive in the always danger-filled American League East. The Rays have made affordable, early-career extensions a key component of their team-building approach over the years.
The Rays Might Have Missed Their Window With Junior Caminero
As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported back in the summer, the Rays hadn’t yet approached Caminero’s camp about an extension (subscription required).
The Rays had plenty of questions at that time. They didn’t have a ballpark for 2026 confirmed, the ownership situation wasn’t settled, and there was uncertainty around their financial future that tied their hands, according to agent Rafa Nieves.
“The [Rays] are not in position to make that commitment with all the question marks surrounding their financial future,” Nieves said, per Tompkin. “That’s why I think they haven’t made an attempt. And, honestly, by the time they’re out of those question marks, it might be too late.”
That was in early August. Caminero was hitting .258 with an .819 OPS and 32 home runs.
The team has since sorted out its ownership and ballpark situations to some degree.
However, with the way Caminero finished the 2025 season, it might be too late for the Rays to get him on an uber-team-friendly deal. If they want to secure the hot corner in Tampa Bay for the future, they will have to step out of their comfort zone and pony up some big-boy money.
In his first full year in the majors, Caminero was an absolute monster, slashing .264/.311/.535 with an .846 OPS (131 OPS+). He finished with 45 home runs, 110 RBIs, 129 wRC+, and led Tampa with 4.4 bWAR. His spectacular season saw him make his first All-Star team, be named to the All-MLB Second Team, and finish ninth in AL MVP voting.
It seemed like every time you turned around this year, Caminero was adding his name to one exclusive list or another. Being mentioned in the same breath as Joe DiMaggio, Eddie Matthews, Johnny Bench, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is high praise indeed.
Why Would the Rays Hesitate To Sign Junior Caminero?
The 22-year-old might just be the best value for a hitter in the majors right now. The Rays still have five years of team control, and he’s still two seasons away from even being arbitration-eligible. Spotrac estimates his 2026 salary will be $820,000.
You might forgive the Rays for being a little gun-shy about inking a young superstar to a long-term deal. Remember the sad situation that unfolded after they signed shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182 million contract ahead of the 2022 season?
Franco’s contract jacked up the Rays’ payroll to that $98 million high-water mark in 2022, before he was gone from MLB partway through 2023.
Franco was supposed to be the future of Rays baseball. At 20, he looked poised to star in the AL East for another decade-plus. Instead, he’s out of baseball, and the Rays are still waiting to see if they can permanently get out from under his contract.
Detractors will also point to Caminero’s cushy home ballpark situation this season.
With the Rays forced to play at minor league Steinbrenner Field, Caminero took full advantage of the hitter-friendly environment. He hit .313/.358/.595 at home and .218/.266/.477 on the road with a slightly higher strikeout rate of 20% compared to 18.2% at home (although both are still better than average).
Fortunately for the team on the field, and unfortunately for the penny-pinching accountants in the front office, Caminero’s value only looks to be going up.
So why should the usually cautious-spending Rays splurge on Caminero?
Junior Caminero’s Elite Power Will Play in Any Ballpark
Yes, those home/road splits don’t look great. But his home run power is legitimate and wasn’t affected by where he played. He actually hit 23 of his 45 dingers on the road, meaning the other 22 came at home. That’s about as even as you can get.
Even with the Rays heading back to the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field next season, Caminero’s power will play. His fierce swing is fueled by his 100th percentile 78.6 mph bat speed. That was second in the majors to only Oneil Cruz’s 78.8 mph.
Plus, Caminero doesn’t take many swings off. Getting after it with his “A” swing more often than anyone, he aggressively posted the highest fast swing rate (swings faster than 75 mph) of 81.3%.
That elite bat speed translated into a 51.4% hard-hit rate and 92.4 mph average exit velocity, both ranked in the 92nd percentile. He also boasted an 87th percentile barrel rate of 14%.
The one area of concern with Caminero’s quality of contact this season was his second percentile 27.7% launch angle sweet spot. That explains his 46.5% ground ball rate.
If he can improve on those and hit more line drives, he’ll be unstoppable and start pricing himself even further out of the Rays’ comfort zone.
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