How Will Injuries Impact the Padres’ Chances to Make a Run?
Gearing up for a playoff run, the Padres have just lost some key contributors due to injury. Do they have the depth to survive in October?
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The Padres remain well-positioned in the playoff race, with a roster suited for postseason competition. However, the team is also contending with notable challenges.
Within the span of a week, the San Diego Padres saw two cornerstones go down. First, it was shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who fractured his left foot after fouling a ball off against the Mariners on August 27. He managed to finish the game, but is now left with a six-to eight-week recovery timetable. This all but guarantees that he misses the remainder of the regular season.
Just days later, Jason Adam, the Padres’ most reliable bullpen arm, collapsed while fielding a comebacker. The diagnosis: a ruptured quadriceps tendon. His season is over, and his availability for 2026 is in doubt.
For a team trying to prove it can hang with the National League’s heavyweights, the timing couldn’t be worse.
With the big blows to the roster, how will the Padres make a run for a championship?
Bogaerts Leaves a Void in the Infield
There is no doubt that the Padres will miss Bogaerts playing shortstop for them every day.
He was finally starting to look like the player San Diego thought it was getting when it handed him an 11-year deal. Since June 19, Bogaerts has slashed .303/.362/.472, giving the Padres continuity on both sides.
For now, the production will be gone. The replacement, Jose Iglesias, is steady but unspectacular.
Iglesias has had a track record of being a plus defender and makes plenty of contact, ranking above the 80th percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, but the offensive ceiling is nowhere near Bogaerts’.
In other words, having Iglesias play meaningful innings down the stretch and potentially in the postseason doesn’t sink the Padres, but it won’t swing a playoff series either.
Jason Adam’s Loss Hits Harder
This one really hurts. Adam was having an elite season, posting a 1.93 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 65 innings. He was one of Mike Schildt’s most trusted arms and could be deployed in any situation.
So what does it mean now that Adam is out?
The injury, while a major blow, can be stomached. Thanks to A.J. Preller’s aggressiveness, Mason Miller is on the roster and seems to be the most likely candidate to fill Adam’s role.
Additionally, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan, and Robert Suarez are all healthy and leave the Padres with still the best bullpen in baseball. With that being said, Adam’s absence leaves a hole, and it will be felt.
Don’t Forget About King
One of the bigger question marks still remaining for the Padres is their starting rotation, and one of the biggest possible solutions is nearing his way off the Injured List.
Michael King has been sidelined for most of this season due to injuries. First, King went on the IL due to a pinched nerve in his shoulder back in May.
After missing nearly three months, King returned to the mound on August 9th, only to end up right back on the IL following just one start due to knee inflammation.
King is making a push to return, having pitched a sim game on August 29th, and could be activated this upcoming week. In his lone start in August, King only pitched two innings, so it is still questionable to see how much he can offer the Padres down the stretch.
Dating back to last season, when he first came over to the Padres, King has pitched to a 2.92 ERA across 231 1/3 innings pitched. If he can get fully ramped up in the next few weeks to be able to make regular starts come October, King could be an absolute game-changer for the Padres.
If not, the Padres will be left with Nick Pivetta (who has been great all season), Dylan Cease, and Yu Darvish to headline a playoff rotation. Considering the struggles of the latter two, the Padres could really use King.
The Big Picture
According to BetMGM, the Padres have a 99.5% chance of making the playoffs. So there is no concern for them losing their spot; it is a matter of making things happen once the calendar flips.
Give credit once again to Preller for bolstering the lineup with Freddie Fermin, Ryan O’Hearn, and Ramon Laureano. Because even though Bogaerts is expected to return for October, there is a world where he doesn’t or he reaggravates the injury.
The injury to Adam will raise some questions about whether the bullpen can maintain its dominance. While there is no reason to assume the bullpen can’t keep up its exceptional performance, there is one less guy to lean on in big situations.
Final Word
A month ago, these injuries might have sunk San Diego’s season. Now, with improved depth to call on, the Padres are better positioned to withstand the setbacks. Still, the margin for error has narrowed. Bogaerts’ absence will test the lineup’s consistency, and Adam’s loss makes every high-leverage situation more stressful.
The Padres have the talent to survive. Whether they have the resilience is the question that will define their October.
Written by
Ethan is an aspiring sports analyst who has a passion for all sports. He was a collegiate baseball player and is now finishing up his schooling…