Is This the Year the Seattle Mariners Finally Win the AL West?

Few fanbases have endured more frustration in the 21st century than the Mariner faithful.

The franchise has not won the AL West or a playoff game since 2001, when Seattle won 116 games in the regular season but lost in the ALDS.

In recent years, the Seattle Mariners have been a competitive team. The club finished with a winning record in six of the past nine seasons but made the playoffs in just one of those. Seattle currently sits at 71-62, in possession of the final AL wild-card slot and 1.5 games back of the Houston Astros for the division lead.

The Mariners have the talent to surpass Houston. Cal Raleigh is enjoying the most prolific power-hitting season for a catcher of all time. The rotation is finally at full strength. Their bullpen, led by Andres Muñoz, Gabe Speier, and Eduard Bazardo, has been effective.

Seattle has been playing above-average baseball for the majority of the past decade, but the Astros have arguably been the most successful team over that span.

From 2017-23, Houston appeared in the ALCS every year, with four World Series appearances and two championships. The only time that the Astros did not win the AL West since 2017 was in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The strength of the Astros’ team this year has been their pitching staff, which has allowed the third-fewest runs in the American League.

After an aggressive trade deadline that yielded the Mariners Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor, their lineup looks more intimidating than Houston’s. Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena both have already recorded 20/20 seasons, and Jorge Polanco has turned his career around with a 119 wRC+.

It’s going to be a battle that drags on deep into September, but Seattle has the opportunity to be the first non-Astros team to win the AL West in a complete 162-game season since 2016.

Sizing Up Remaining Schedules

While the Astros have an additional series against teams that are .500 or better, the Mariners have to play two series against teams better than any remaining Houston opponent (Padres and Dodgers).

Both teams have four games remaining against the free-falling Angels, as well as three-game sets with the league-worst Rockies. The Astros dropped game one of their series with Colorado on Tuesday.

What could make-or-break Seattle’s ability to win their division is whether a fellow divisional opponent, the Rangers, take care of business in their six games remaining with the Astros.

The Rangers sit at 67-67 and are a more extreme version of Houston. Texas has allowed the fewest runs in the American League but scored just the fourth-fewest runs in the junior circuit. If the Rangers’ best starter, Jacob deGrom, lines up to face Houston in both of these series they will be a tough match. That would benefit the Mariners greatly.

A pivotal stretch for Seattle’s season will come on a nine-game east-coast road trip, solely against teams below .500. None of these teams — the Guardians, Rays, and Braves — are pushovers, but it would behoove Seattle to come out of this excursion with a winning record.

The biggest series remaining for either of these teams is, obviously, the one where they go head-to-head for the final time. The Mariners travel to Houston September 19th through the 21st to clash with their divisional foes to earn tiebreaker rights. These two clubs have split the season series against one another, 5-5, in their first three series matchups.

Something will have to give between these two, and a series sweep would be a massive momentum shift for either side. If Seattle has to face Houston’s best pitchers, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, the Astros are a tough team to defeat.

However, the starting pitching depth of Houston is nowhere near that of Seattle’s. If the Mariners avoid one or both of Valdez and Brown, they have to feel good about their chances to take that last series against their divisional foes.

How Seattle Can Improve Their Odds

To reach the point of competing for a division crown in late August, a team has to be playing well. There are, however, a couple of ways that the Mariners could transform themselves from a playoff contender into a legit World Series threat from within.

Get Eugenio Suárez Going

One of the most impactful commodities on the market at this trade deadline was Eugenio Suárez, but he hasn’t played like it so far with his new club.

In 106 games with Arizona prior to the move, Suárez clubbed 36 home runs in 106 games, recording a 142 wRC+. In 24 games with Seattle, he’s hit five home runs with an 82 wRC+.

The Mariners acquired Suárez with the idea that he’d be an elite run producer. However, things haven’t turned out that way so far. Not only has he not performed like he had with the Diamondbacks, but Suárez hasn’t been a good hitter by any metric with Seattle. His hard-hit rate has dropped 5.9% since the move, with his frequency of soft contact nearly doubling.

All players go through slumps. Suárez has hit at least 30 home runs in six of the past seven seasons, so there’s no reason to believe that he won’t work out the kinks. It would be a huge boost to the Mariners if Suárez could finish the season close to the .897 OPS pace that he sustained in Arizona this year.

Resurrect 2024 Bryce Miller

The starting pitching staff of the Mariners is undoubtedly one of the best in baseball.

Bryan Woo has functioned as the staff ace, aided by a good bill of health. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby have missed time but returned and are performing well. Luis Castillo isn’t as dominant as these three counterparts, by xFIP, but has thrown 146.1 innings with a 3.57 ERA. Then, there’s the final spot in the Mariners’ rotation.

Bryce Miller has made just 12 starts this season with a 5.89 ERA. He’s missed a large chunk of this season with a bout of elbow inflammation but rejoined the rotation on August 19. Logan Evans and Emerson Hancock have filled in as injury replacements, however, neither have been effective.

In 2024, Miller threw 180.1 innings with a 2.94 ERA. While that level of dominance can be hard to replicate, the right-hander had registered an above-average 17.9% K-BB%. So far this season, Miller’s command has dropped off. His K-BB% is now a lackluster 7.6%.

If Miller can locate his pitches more effectively, he could be the missing piece to a rotation that has no weak links.

What a Division Title Would Mean to Seattle

Winning the AL West would be an achievement that Jerry Dipoto, Mariners President of Baseball Operations, spent years in Seattle working toward. Known for being active in the trade market, Dipoto has regularly fielded good teams but still moved pieces around to assemble a true contender.

For so long, the Astros have ruled the AL West. Then, after their magical 2023 World Series run, it seemed like the Rangers would be stealing the throne. As it turns out, the Mariners were the team waiting in the wings to give Houston a run for their money.

Aside from the obvious benefits of winning the division — it’s an honor that can never be revoked and Seattle will earn homefield advantage in their first playoff series — it could signal a turning of the tide for future seasons.

The Mariners are often regarded as having one of the best farm systems in baseball. This wave of young talent is accompanied by an already established winning core. Seattle currently has five top 100 prospects, according to Just Baseball, including the third-overall pick in this year’s draft, left-handed pitcher Kade Anderson.

This could be just the beginning of a period of prolonged winning in Seattle.

Despite the fact that Seattle has a tougher road to win the division than Houston, I like their odds to do so. I believe that the Mariners have a deeper lineup, better rotation depth, and a comparable bullpen.

Given that the Astros still have many key contributors from past deep playoff runs, perhaps they are better suited to make noise in the playoffs. But, as far as which roster I believe in more for the remainder of the regular season, I’ll take Seattle.

All stats were taken prior to play on August 27.