Not Gambling Advice: Baseball Picks for Today — Odds, Bets & Lines (July 29, 2025)

We went 1-1 on Monday, but our biggest play was a loser.

We went heavier than usual on Brandon Woodruff Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+125). I loved that play and would play it ten times out of ten, accepting the consequences every time. Woodruff did just enough; if he had allowed one more baserunner, he would have been taken out in the sixth inning. I tip my cap to you, Mr. Woodruff; you are a monster.

Thankfully, we hit on the A’s against the Astros, and it wasn’t even close. Houston is in a complete tailspin right now, and I’m going right back to fading them.

2025 Record: 54-55 (+2.68 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros @ 8:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Athletics: Michael Soroka (4.85 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 78 Innings)

Astros: Jason Alexander (8.14 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 21 Innings)

You have to feel bad for the Astros.

It’s not their fault they look like a triple-A team right now. Their current injured list could beat most of the teams in Major League Baseball, but the healthy team can’t.

Their best hitter, Yordan Alvarez, has been on the shelf for a while now. Their leader in home runs this year, Isaac Paredes, is not coming back soon, according to new reporting. Jeremy Pena, their leader in batting average, should return quickly, but not today. Jake Meyers, their centerfielder who’s hitting over .300 this season, won’t be back “for at least three weeks”.

Half of the Astros’ lineup should be in the minor leagues. Zach Short, Bryce Matthews, Jacob Melton, and arguably Taylor Trammell will be minor leaguers once the Astros studs come back.

Jason Alexander is getting the start today because they don’t have anyone left. Brandon Walter has been placed on the IL due to elbow inflammation. If everyone were healthy, Walter might be their eighth-best starter, but with him down, they turn to a 32-year-old journeyman, Jason Alexander.

Alexander’s first taste of big league action came this year, even though he’s been in the minor leagues since 2017. His man pitch is a 91 MPH sinker that he throws 40% of the time, and opponents are hitting .350 against it with a .389 xwOBA.

He’s a heavy sinker baller guy, which means his groundball rate should be pretty high, but it isn’t. Alexander’s changeup is an excellent offering, but his sweeper is atrocious.

He’s not a big league pitcher; he has to pitch because the Astros don’t have anyone else.

On the flip side, Michael Soroka will get the ball for Washington. He’s been pitching well of late, but the issue is that the Nationals stink it up when he’s on the mound. Soroka might be the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, sitting with a 3.27 xERA and a 3.64 SIERA.

Soroka runs into trouble against left-handed bats, as they have posted a .793 OPS against him. Righties, however, can’t hit him, as he’s posted a .180 batting average against with a .541 OPS.

The Astros’ best hitters, Jose Altuve, Cam Smith, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz, are all right-handed. With Victor Caritini and Taylor Trammell carrying the load for Houston, I like our chances.

The A’s outscored the Astros 32-7 in a four-game set. I wanted to bet on the Nationals yesterday, but I couldn’t go with them in a Brad Lord vs Framber Valdez matchup in Houston. However, the Nationals still found a way to win because the Astros are struggling to hit right now. They have a 79 wRC+ since the All-Star break.

The Nationals have won three in a row, and they have a 92 wRC+ since the All-Star break ended. They aren’t a great team by any stretch, but it’s a team of big leaguers, and they still have difference makers like CJ Abrams and James Wood.

The Astros’ only advantage lies in their bullpen and home-field advantage. The Nationals’ bullpen is terrible, but so is the Astros’ offense right now. The Nationals should hit Alexander enough to build a lead, and I expect Soroka to shove, and the Nationals’ bullpen does enough to win this game.

I think it’s very likely the Nationals grab a big lead and the Astros don’t put in any of their elite high-leverage arms like Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Bryan King. Not only did all of them pitch yesterday, but I have my doubts the game plan will call for them in the later innings.

I see this game going in a similar direction as the A’s beatdown over the Astros on Sunday. Michael Soroka outduels Jason Alexander, and because they are losing, they toss out their lesser bullpen arms, leading to more runs for Washington.

I want the Nationals ML at even money or better, and the Nationals reverse runline (-1.5) at +190 or better. The Nationals run-line is a 0.25-unit sprinkle.

If you’re interested in getting my plays as soon as I bet them and have the opportunity to discuss each play with the group directly, join our Discord!