Not Gambling Advice: Baseball Picks for Today — Odds, Bets & Lines (August 27, 2025)

Now that I’m officially moved into Chicago, the write-ups are back!

It’s been a bit of a bumpy ride since our last write-up. Just last night, we fell into the red on the season. We took the Diamondbacks ML (+145) against the Brewers, and they fell just short of the mark. It looked horrible out of the gate as Brandon Pfaadt put together one of his worst starts of the season, but the Snakes kept battling.

The game ended on a Brewers walk-off sac-fly, and the final score read 9-8.

Today, we are double-dipping on a Texas Rangers left-hander. Let’s get back in the green.

2025 Record: 56-60 (-0.03 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers @ 8:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Angels: Jack Kochanowicz (6.19 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 107.2 Innings)

Rangers: Jacob Latz (3.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 59 Innings)

On June 24th, we took Jacob Latz under 4.5 Hits allowed at +120. He only allowed one hit and two earned runs over six innings against the Baltimore Orioles. During that time, he was given a few spot starts and was treated like a regular starter. He dominated and hit the bet easily. That’s a big reason why I like him today.

If he happens to throw well over my projected pitch count of 75, I still think he can be effective enough to hit both of these lines. There are many reasons, which I’ll detail shortly. The most critical issue to address is how long he’ll pitch in this game.

It’s gambling at the end of the day, but I have reason to believe he likely won’t exceed 75 pitches. Ever since his start back on June 24th, he has been pitching mainly out of the bullpen, except for one spot start on July 20th, where he threw 84 pitches.

He was sent down to the minors after he allowed two hits and two earned runs against the Mariners out of the bullpen on July 31st. He made four appearances and never went beyond two innings. In his return to the big league club, he threw 3.1 innings of shutout baseball with only one hit allowed out of the bullpen. He threw 43 pitches, which was the most since July 20th.

The question is, how long of a leash will the Rangers give him? Is this a full spot start where he’ll get 85-90 pitches, or will it be an abbreviated start? I believe he’ll be pulled around the 75 pitch mark for a few reasons. One of them is that he hasn’t worked that long based on his performance over the last month. The second reason is that the Rangers’ bullpen is in a great rest spot.

Patrick Corbin gave Texas eight shutout innings yesterday, so they have five relievers they can go to that are ready to go. The Rangers also have an off-day tomorrow, so they can let those rested relievers go a bit longer, considering they’ll get an additional rest day tomorrow.

Another reason I love these two plays is that I believe Latz can dominate the Angels even if they let him go 85-90 pitches. The Angels are not a good offense against left-handed pitching, and it was evident last night.

This has been a recurring theme for the Angels. This season, the Angels rank 18th in wRC+ (92) against southpaws. They are slashing .228/.288/.416. Their saving grace is power, but in terms of racking up hits, they rank 23rd in batting average and dead last in hits.

Since the All-Star break, the Angels have been taking more walks and hitting for more power against lefties, which has elevated their wRC+ to 111. However, they still rank 18th in average during that span and second-to-last in hits.

Latz is a pitcher I’m pretty bullish on. I hope he gets more runway as a starter. He doesn’t get barreled often, and there is plenty of swing and miss in his arsenal. He’s rocking a 3.05 ERA and a 3.85 xERA. His only issue is walks, but in a bet like this, we need to limit the amount of hits and runs he allows.

He’s made two starts this year, but he’s gone over five innings three times (once was after an opener). In those three “starts,” he’s thrown 16.2 innings while allowing just ten hits and four earned runs. If we took these same bets, he would have been under his earned run line all three times and his hits line twice. That was against the Royals, Orioles, and Tigers.

He faced the Angels once back on July 10th, piggybacking off a Patrick Corbin start. He went 3.1 innings, allowing two hits and one earned run while striking out six. Over those 15 PA against the Angels’ current roster, he held them to a .071 batting average with a 53.3% strikeout rate and a .259 xwOBA—incredible numbers.

It’s also preferable that he pitches at home, where he has a 2.52 ERA this season over 25 innings.

If I project 75 pitches thrown, I have his earned run line at -190 towards the under, and his hits allowed line at -118 towards the under. I’m still showing a slight value if I project 90 pitches, which he has never done in his major league career.

I would take his under hits allowed down to +112, and his under earned runs down to -160.

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