Cam Smith Deserves More Appreciation for What He Is Doing
His stats might not be grabbing headlines, but Cam Smith's rookie campaign deserves to be spotlighted as a roaring success so far.
When thinking about what a whirlwind start to an MLB career might look like, the first name that should come to mind is Cam Smith.
Smith was selected by the Chicago Cubs in the first round of last year’s MLB Draft, was then traded to the Houston Astros for one of the game’s best players in Kyle Tucker this offseason, and then made his MLB debut all in the span of about eight months.
That is an incredibly unique start to any player’s career, and Smith has handled every bit of the process with grace and resilience.
When being traded for one of the best players in the sport, the expectations that come with it are immense and stressful. Especially considering Smith was expected to deliver at the MLB level with just 32 minor league games under his belt.
Not only has Smith delivered, but he’s thrived so far to start his MLB career. He deserves way more appreciation for what he’s doing, as this level of production given his circumstances is nearly unheard of.
Stats were taken prior to play on June 6.
What’s Driving Cam Smith’s Success?
After reaching Double-A with just 27 games played in the minor leagues, it was clear that Smith wouldn’t have to wait long to make his MLB debut. However, it still came sooner than most expected, as Smith made the Astros’ Opening Day roster. Since debuting, he’s been solid overall.
First off, in order to fit Smith into the lineup, he was forced to move away from the hot corner for the first time in his career. This was a tall task, especially considering he was making the move at the highest level of the sport. He’s not only handled the transition with ease, but he’s excelling in right field.
In his first season in right, Smith is currently putting up tremendous numbers with his glove. His Outs Above Average (OAA) presently sits at +4, which places him in baseball’s 94th percentile. For a player making this big of an impact in his first exposure at a new position, it’s truly been special to see.
Not only has he posted really good OAA numbers, but Smith has also flashed the potential to have a pretty solid arm. While his actual arm value has yet to come along, Smith has registered an arm strength that’s inside the top 20 percent of baseball.
In addition to this, his 29.1 ft/sec average sprint speed has allowed him to track balls deep in the gap.
Smith’s bat is still developing, as he’s been about league average overall on the offensive side of things. However, he has flashed some very encouraging and positive metrics during his first taste of the big leagues.
Through 49 games, Smith is currently slashing .245/.328/.362 with a 101 wRC+, which has shown slightly-above-average production at the plate. He’s also hit three homers, which has given us a look into what his power may look like in the future.
Although his batted-ball metrics overall haven’t been that impressive, his performance against fastballs has certainly made up for that. Smith has seen more heaters than any other pitch and he’s currently hitting .318 against them. He’s posted an xwOBA of nearly .400 against heaters as well.
Smith has also done a fairly good job at not chasing, as his 69th-percentile chase rate of 24.9% is a great sign for a young hitter. If he can lay off deceiving pitches, he’ll be put in a much better place to succeed moving forward.
Smith has already played more games this season than he did in his entire minor league career, and the way he’s developed as a player in such a short time deserves some serious praise. He’s learned a new position and handled it with ease, all while slowly improving at the plate. Not to mention he’s doing all of this with a contending Astros ball club.
While there’s still plenty of improving to do, this has been a very solid start to his MLB career.
Where Can Smith Improve?
As previously mentioned, Smith still has a lot of improving to do at the plate to truly become an elite major-league hitter. So, let’s examine where some of these improvements can be made.
For starters, although Smith has done a decent job at not chasing, he’s struggled mightily with strikeouts so far this season. He’s currently striking out just shy of 30% of the time, which isn’t a great look for the young hitter. Smith has also posted a whiff rate near 30%, which has certainly contributed to his struggles.
However, his 9.3% walk rate does give the Astros some hope with his plate discipline. If he can make more consistent contact and hone in his approach to avoid strikeouts, he’ll be in a far better position to succeed.
Smith also has a long way to go in terms of hitting breaking balls. He’s currently hitting just .115 against the pitch type, posting whiff rates over 37% of the time in the process. Among breaking pitches, sliders have given him the most trouble, as he’s posting a strikeout rate of 45% and a Run Value of -5 against them, according to Baseball Savant.
This is something that can improve with more reps, though, as it’s common for young hitters to struggle against breaking balls at this level. This is especially true when it comes to Smith, as he barely spent any time acclimating himself to the professional scene.
As I previously touched on, Smith has struggled to make consistent contact with the baseball in general. For example, his zone-contact rate currently sits at 78.4%, a far from pretty metric. This has led to some struggles with a lack of barrels and hard hits.
If Smith can just make more consistent contact, it’s possible these issues fizzle out. Smith’s best tool has always been his raw power, and more opportunities to maximize it will really help him moving forward.
All of these struggles are common for a young hitter, and they just outline areas Smith can improve. He’s still been an above-average hitter despite these struggles, which should make the Astros even more excited for the fully-developed version of Smith.
How Has He Helped the Astros Directly?
Smith has really helped the Astros as a team throughout his first taste of the big leagues. After losing Kyle Tucker, the Astros didn’t have an immediate solution regarding how to replace him, and having a stable, young player they can throw out there has been the perfect solution.
Not only this, but the Astros have struggled to put together a good defensive outfield outside of Jake Meyers, which makes it even more helpful to have Smith’s glove in this group. Both of the team’s left fielders have posted abysmal OAA numbers, while Smith and Meyers have held the rest of the outfield down nicely.
The Astros have also been a decent offense this season, but nothing more than that. They currently rank 14th in the sport in wRC+ (102), which isn’t exactly what we should be seeing from a legitimate contender.
Smith’s 101 wRC+ has allowed this lineup some stability, though, also picking up some slack for other struggling members of the same offense. For example, Jose Altuve’s age is showing, and he’s been off to a slower start, posting his worst wRC+ since 2020.
Although he’s floated with the league-average mark himself, Smith’s production has helped take the pressure off of players like this in the lineup. It hasn’t gone unnoticed, as Smith is a big reason why the Astros are where they are today. He deserves more credit for what he’s doing.
It’ll be amazing to see the fully-developed version of Smith down the road. However, let’s appreciate what Smith is already doing, as he’s handled this whirlwind over the last few months like a seasoned veteran.
Written by
Jay Staph, a huge baseball fan and stat nerd, founded and ran his own baseball writing website, BSBWrites, at just 16-years-old. With focal points around prospects,…