Not Gambling Advice: Baseball Picks for Today — Odds, Bets & Lines (May 11, 2025)

Break-even day yesterday.

Carlos Rodon Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+130) was a tragic loss. It was the first time he went six innings without allowing a walk since the 2024 postseason, but he did allow eight hits and four earned runs. Even after a long inning and a rested bullpen, he still went back out there, and on his last batter with a 3-2 count, he struck him out. He would have been removed if he had walked him, or anyone in that inning would have gotten on—that was a tough loss.

Incredible win on Ranger Saurez Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-103). We didn’t have to sweat for a second, as he cruised through six innings in under 70 pitches without allowing a run.

Today, I have one play in the early game. Happy Mother’s Day!

2025 Record: 33-21 (+14.55 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets @ 12:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Cubs: Matthew Boyd (2.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP in 39.1 IP)

Mets: Griffin Canning (2.50 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 36 Innings)

Matthew Boyd is one of the pitchers I have circled as a regression candidate. His 2.75 ERA through his first seven starts is impressive, but I expect that to rise over the coming weeks. This spot against the Mets is the right time to get off the Boyd train.

Boyd allows a lot of baserunners, as highlighted in his 1.35 WHIP. He’s not displaying the same type of swing and miss stuff as last year, and his strikeout rate has fallen 5%. He’s allowed more hits than innings pitched this year, but he’s gotten the timely outs when he needs them to stay out of trouble. However, it’s tough to maintain a LOB% over 80%, and he’s at 81.3%. Eventually, he will give up hits with RISP and see that ERA rise.

His underlying ERA predictors see him settling in with an ERA below 4.00. His SIERA sits at 3.99, his xERA is at 3.52, and his FIP and xFIP range from 3.78 to 4.11. He’s a solid pitcher, but due for a bit of regression, and this is one of his toughest matchups yet.

The Mets destroy lefties, rocking a 151 wRC+ against southpaws at home this year, the second-best mark in baseball. They are hitting .316 with an .871 OPS, ranking second in baseball. Regardless of the park, this is a top-four offense in every category against left-handed pitching.

The Mets’ current roster has seen Boyd a few times and has never had a problem with him. Through 54 PA, the Mets’ bats are hitting .354 with a .366 xwOBA and a .520 xSLG. Granted, most of it is Lindor, but Marte, Soto, and Taylor have recorded hits against him.

The Mets hit lefties well, but we are looking at pitching outs, so we need them to be patient. At 3.97 pitches per plate appearance, the Mets rank fourth in baseball. They also rank ninth in walk rate against lefties this season, with the eighth highest walk rate regardless of the pitcher’s handedness.

The Mets have faced six left-handed starters this year, and four have failed to throw at least six innings (66.7%). Boyd has been over this number more often than not this season (four of seven starts), but he was under in eight of his 11 starts last year (73%).

Boyd has also had some difficulties going deep into games on the road. Over his last six road starts, he’s been under 17.5 pitching outs in five, averaging just 14.8 outs per game.

This is the rubber match of a big series against one of the best teams in baseball. They travel back home to face the Marlins tomorrow, so if there ever was going to be a quicker trigger than most, it should be this one. The Cubs’ bullpen saw a lot of work yesterday, but for most of their relievers, that was the first game they had thrown. Only two of their nine relievers have thrown more than 20 pitches in the last three days, so pretty much every single one of them should be available today.

Rithmm’s AI-backed model loves this play, projecting 15.0 outs, giving us a 70.3% chance of staying under. My own model on Rithmm agrees, projecting 15.6 outs, giving us a 64.3% chance of staying under 17.5 pitching outs, making the true line -180. I would take this to -140. Anything above that, lower your unit size.

If you’re interested in getting my plays as soon as I bet them and have the opportunity to discuss each play with the group directly, join our Discord!

If you want to build your model on Rithmm or use their AI back-tested model, use code JUSTBASEBALL25 for 25% off your first month, which includes a seven-day free trial.