Javier Baez Has His Swagger Back, But Will it Last?

In the winter of 2021, the Tigers signed Javier Baez to a six-year, $140 million contract. After several seasons of disappointment Detroit finally jumped back into free agency and landed the shortstop they desperately needed. Although Baez was a big name, he wasn’t the name atop of fans wish list.

Reuniting Carlos Correa with Manager A.J. Hinch made all the sense in the world, but Correa elected to join rival forces in Minnesota. Baez was seen as a secondary plan, but quickly gave fans reason to cheer when he hit a walk-off single on Opening Day in his first game as a Tiger.

Since then, it has all been downhill. The power output was cut in half, and his aggressive approach only made matters worse. A down 2022 was followed by back-to-back seasons of being one of the worst hitters in the entire sport.

Injury ended his season early in 2024 and the team chugged right along to a playoff berth without him. As the team improved, his roster spot was not only questioned, but seen as a complete unjustifiable hole with the only reason for him being on the team being money.

I’m pretty sure everyone counted him out. Fans went from disappointed in his 2022 season to begging for that same production.

Well, so far we have seen a completely different player than the one who’s worn a Tigers jersey for the past three years. A now quasi-utility man, center fielder, and player who looks as confident as the one we saw in Chicago.

Best We Have Seen from Baez in Years

If you have kept up with the Tigers this season, you have found yourself shocked by Javy more than you expected. That’s about as simple as I can put it.

After a few putrid seasons, we could pretty easily count on two hands how often Javy did something that really made us think he could contribute.

In 2025, we have already surpassed that number. Is he back to the power-hitting shortstop the Tigers thought they signed? Not quite, but he’s looking like a player who can bring value to this young team.

Although it has only been 86 at-bats, Baez already has three games of three or more hits. Last season, he had two such games, back-to-back days in mid-May. He already has two home runs, which took him until September 25th to reach that mark in 2024.

His first home run was a bit of a unicorn. A 99 mph exit velocity and 40 degree launch angle that was caught by the Crawford Boxes in Houston. Balls with that combination have had a .099 batting average, but the second home run of this season is one that really caught my eye.

Yes, it was down the middle. But, that was the first home run off a pitch higher than 95 mph that Baez has hit as a Tiger. A vicious swing to turn on that fastball, with plus velocity, is not something we have seen much from him. A swing with that level of confidence has been rare, but a welcomed sight.

Javy has struggled against velocity and hit only .200 on fastballs last year and is now over .300 to start the season. He’s also dropped his chase rate by 5% which is the key to unlocking whatever version we see of Baez going forward.

If Baez swings at pitches out of the zone, he’s going to keep getting pitches out of the zone. The more he lays off, the more pitchers will have to enter the zone which gives him an opportunity to do damage.

His improvements are not only at the plate, but in the field. Baez has found himself in more of a utility role filling in at third and center and has excelled since making the move. For a player to pop into center at 32 years old and look as natural as Javy does speaks volumes to how natural gifted he is as a fielder.

After making a Willie Mays style catch last week Baez tracked a fly ball to right center and perfectly timed his jump to take away a home run.

Plays like this are why he’s ranked in the 93rd percentile for outs above average. A plus defender at third, center, and short, even if his range has dropped a bit, is vital to what this team needs right now.

As the team gets healthy, Baez can still be the answer to a few major questions the Tigers have had since the offseason. Who can back up center? Easy. What if Jace Jung and Matt Vierling aren’t the answer at third? Another option. If Trey Sweeney struggles at short what do the Tigers do? Boom.

A .291/.330/.430 slash and 120 wRC+ while making an impact in the field has been refreshing to see. Of course, we have seen hot stretches from Baez in the past two years, but I don’t quite think they have been as promising as this one. The next big question Baez will have to answer is whether he can keep this up?

Concerns

After watching three seasons of declining play it would be irresponsible to assume what we are seeing is what we should expect going forward. Water always finds it’s level, but what will that level be? Is it around a 90 wRC+ with plus defense and versatility? Or is it closer to the 43 wRC+ from last season?

Early-season stats can wear a mask, and that’s why advanced stats will help tell the full story. Perfect? No, but added context and data are worth noting.

I know this is a lot of data and some might not be familiar to you, but what really matters is how this season compares to previous seasons. Not all that different, which does point toward Javy’s hot start regressing. He’s not hitting the ball harder and has benefitted from a bit of luck.

The biggest change, which we touched on earlier, is chasing balls out of the zone less. If he is able to sustain laying off balls there’s a decent chance he can continue to bring some variation of value at the plate. A good indicator will be when a slump comes.

All players have slumps, and when they do, it’s not uncommon to press and, for lack of better words, try too hard. Once Javy does slow down, will he start chasing more and revert back to bad habits, or stick with his better approach?

But I am not going to ignore the human element in all of this. Better at-bats can be a sign of a more locked-in player who also knows his roster spot, and possibly career, are on the line.

Many factors can play a role in better play, and perhaps his new role as more of a utility piece has taken some pressure off of him.

Final Thoughts

Regardless of where the stats lay at the end of the season, Baez has given the Tigers a boost when the team needed players to step up. He’s filled one of the biggest holes by shifting to center and has taken base runners, and runs, off the board with his defense.

After everything that has been written about him being negative, it feels good to be able to highlight him in a positive manner. Even through struggles, he has continued to play at 100% effort, and the fact that he’s getting to taste success again is refreshing to see.

The coming months are crucial for Baez. Reverting back to what has become the norm will once again put him in jeopardy of losing his spot. His willingness to take on new positions and do what is asked to help the team alleviates the pressures, at least for now.