Five Way-too-Early Dark Horse Bets to Win the MVP

For the first time in what feels like a long time, there are obvious choices in each league to win the annual MVP Award.

Over in the American League, the hardware once again feels like it’s going to end up being Aaron Judge’s to lose (-180). He won the second MVP Award of his career last year after leading the majors in bWAR, home runs, RBI, walks, OBP, SLG, OPS and a whole lot more statistical categories.

Of course, there are a few players that could put a run together this year like Bobby Witt Jr. (+500), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+2000), or Gunnar Henderson (+1300), but it’s difficult to pick anyone other than Judge to go back-to-back.

In the National League, there’s a similar story, but it’s two clear favorites rather than just one. Shohei Ohtani (+105), last year’s winner, is back for more after leading the NL in basically every single category Judge topped the league-wide charts in. He is now joined by Judge’s former second-in-command Juan Soto (+550), who was third in the AL voting last season. Keep an eye on that Francisco Lindor fella (+3000), too.

Entering the season and making it through anywhere between 12 and 15 games (depending on which team you support), it’s likely going to be Judge in the AL and Ohtani/Soto in the NL once again.

Today, we’re going to break down some of the dark horse picks that could surprise this season and dethrone one of these award-winning juggernauts. We’re going to steer clear of the Witts, Guerreros, and Lindors of the world and look at the next tier of MVP hopefuls.

Stats and rankings taken prior to play on April 11.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at BetMGM.

5 Dark Horse Bets to Win an MVP in 2025

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks: +2000

Despite the fact that he finished his year as an above-average hitter, Carroll had a bit of a rough go in his sophomore campaign. He hit just .213 in 94 first-half games before a strong .259 average and .919 OPS in 64 second-half games brought his overall numbers back into the green.

To start off this year, you’d never think he struggled in 2024. The 24-year-old has been electric through his first 13 games, posting 10 extra-base hits while hitting .320 and boasting an OPS that’s all the way up to 1.164. As of right now, he leads the majors in bWAR (1.2) and paces the NL in SLG (.740) and OPS.

Carroll currently sits at +2000 in the betting odds, behind the likes of Ohtani, Soto, Mookie Betts, and a few others. None of the other players are even close to dark horses, but Carroll can fall into the category after the hardships he went through last year. He’s been putting any doubts to rest so far this season, and the sky’s the limit for the budding phenom.

Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers: +3500

It’s absolutely insane to look around the league and see how young some of the game’s best budding stars are. Chourio, who’s only been 21 for a month now, is already off to a scorching start in the new year. Through 13 games, he leads the NL with 16 RBI.

He’s also got four home runs, a .655 SLG and a .960 OPS. He took home a third-place finish in the ROTY voting last year, but he’s got a real shot at a different kind of hardware in the new season.

The biggest thing getting in Chourio’s way – at least for now – is the immense amount of competition in the NL in his quest to be the league’s best player. He excels in every aspect of the game, so even if 2025 isn’t his year, he’s got MVP written all over him as his career marches on.

Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers: +5000

Shifting over to the AL, Greene was an All-Star last season but there’s still this general sense around the industry that the best is yet to come for him. His numbers improved across the board between 2023 and 2024 and he’s already doing his thing this season.

Through 12 games, Greene has three home runs with five RBI, a .286 average, .551 SLG and .851 OPS. He’s a cornerstone of the Tigers’ lineup if there’s ever been one, and could give the team a second award winner if Tarik Skubal continues to shove every single time he takes the mound.

Residing in the third or fourth spot in Detroit’s nightly lineup, Greene is always right in the middle of the fun and should continue to take steps forward on his ascent towards the top of the AL this year. Topping the 5.4 bWAR he had in 2024 won’t be easy, but he’s got the tools to pull it off.

Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres: +2500

Speaking of faces of the franchise, Merrill is now (most likely) going to be a Padre for life, and it’s clear that San Diego’s got themselves a good one. The soon-to-be 22-year-old (man, I’m old…) put up 4.4 bWAR in his rookie season last year, recording 24 home runs with 90 RBI and a 127 OPS+. He also made the All-Star Game, took home a Silver Slugger, and finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year race.

Now, he’s back for more and was off to a scorching start before a trip to the 10-day injured list slowed his momentum. Fortunately, it’s just a minor hamstring strain that’s ailing him, and he’s expected to return as soon as he’s eligible to be activated.

In 10 games pre-injury, Merrill had already driven in as many runs while hitting .378 (which still tops the NL leaderboards) and sporting a cool 1.090 OPS. He is just so electric on all sides of the ball, and it’s not going to be remotely surprising to see him take home an MVP Award or two before his mega-deal is done.

Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles: +3000

A first-round pick of the Orioles back in 2019, Rutschman remains one of the game’s very best backstops, despite the fact that he took a step or two back last season. Even in a “down year”, he put up 3.4 bWAR and made his second All-Star Game while hitting 19 home runs, driving in 79 and posting a 106 OPS+.

Dating back to 2022 when he first debuted, Rutschman is in the top five amongst AL catchers (min. 500 PA) in home runs, RBI, AVG, wOBA, and wRC+. He also leads the way in OBP and fWAR. We’ve seen what he can do when he’s on his A-game, but it’s been over a year since that version of him has been front and center in Baltimore. If (when, really) he turns it around, the rest of the league will be put on watch, as it’s not every day you see a catcher that produces the way he does.