We made it—the best day of the year, Opening Day.

We have already been busy placing wagers for the Dodgers vs Cubs series in Tokyo. We swept, winning all three bets. The under in the first game was easy; only five runs were scored. We took Roki Sasaki under pitching outs and strikeouts in the second game; another easy winner.

It would be nice if all the picks were that easy, but they won’t be! It’s a long season with ups and downs, but I can’t wait to ride the rollercoaster with you all in 2025.

Here are my betting stats from the 2024 MLB Season:

2025 Record: 3-0 (+2.49 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

New York Mets vs. Houston Astros @ 4:10 AM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Mets: Clay Holmes (3.14 ERA, 3.02 FIP in 63 Innings)

Astros: Framber Valdez (2.91 ERA, 3.25 FIP in 176.1 innings)

While Clay Holmes spent his entire career with the bullpen, he told the baseball world he wanted to be a starter moving forward. It makes sense; he’s got a starter’s frame, keeps the ball on the ground, and has posted a respectable K-BB rate. His pitch arsenal wasn’t vast enough, as he only featured a sinker and two variations of a slider.

He went to work this offseason, adding a kick-change and an improved four-seam fastball, and has started throwing a cutter. The results in spring have been fantastic, pitching to a 0.98 ERA in 19.1 innings with a 31.9% strikeout rate. Usually, I take spring training results with a grain of salt, but nothing about what Clay Holmes has been doing is normal. He looks like a completely different pitcher, and early on, he should be one of the more effective in the league.

I want to target Holmes early in the season. With six different pitches at his disposal, creating a game plan against him will be very challenging. Bats are typically a bit colder at the start, but it makes it harder when you don’t have much of a scouting report on the starter they’re up against.

Framber Valdez will line up on the other side for the Astros. Valdez typically starts the season on a good note, posting a 2.60 ERA in March/April last season and a 2.54 ERA in the same span back in 2023. He’s going up against a softer Mets lineup due to injuries. Jeff McNeil (97 wRC+) and Francisco Alvarez (102 wRC+) will start the season on the IL.

Framber has a solid history against these Mets’ bats. In 90 PA against the current Mets roster, they are hitting .238 with a well below-average .281 xwOBA and a 25.6% strikeout rate. The average launch angle against Framber is 1.7 degrees, meaning these Mets bats have primarily kept the ball on the ground, which is exactly what Framber wants.

These are two of the heaviest ground-ball pitchers in the league. Framber Valdez led all starters with a 60.6% ground-ball rate, and Holmes was second among all relievers at over 65%. I expect a quick first half of innings with rallies squashed by the double play.

The bullpens on both sides look great for this matchup. The Astros don’t have the depth they once did, but the top-end talent of Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader are still elite. The Mets’ back-end has also improved after they added AJ Minter this offseason, along with Edwin Diaz, Jose Butto, Ryne Stanek, and Reed Garrett.

This total is inflated due to last year’s numbers and Clay Holmes’ inexperience. The Astros were the second-best offense against righties at home last year, but no more Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman will hurt. The Mets were the third-best offense against lefties on the road last year, but with Framber’s success early in the season, coupled with the excellent quality of contact numbers against the Mets lineup, I think he throws well.

Seven is a key number in totals, so I’d prefer to take under 7.5 at +100 over 8 at -120. On BetMGM, at the time of writing, the line is -115 at under 8, which is a great play to start the season.

Player Prop #1

St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Sonny Gray LOVES Opening Day. He’s on a ten-inning scoreless streak, shutting out his opponent in back-to-back Opening Day starts. Sonny Gray has a career 2.95 ERA in March/April while striking out batters at the highest rate of any other month. Last season, he posted a 1.16 ERA in March/April with 32 strikeouts in 23 innings.

While he hasn’t had much success in spring training from a run prevention standpoint, his strikeout numbers are still there (17 Ks in 14.1 IP), which is all I care about.

This is a soft line due to the uncertainty of a pitch count. He went over this line in 24 of his 28 starts last season, including 14 of his previous 15. He also only had five on Opening Day last year, but I like him to get one more based on the matchup.

Sonny Gray pitched for the Twins from 2022 to 2023, and when he’s faced off against hitters in this current Twins lineup, it’s gone very well for him. The Twins only hit .152 against him, with a 24.7% strikeout rate. The Twins will likely have five right-handed hitters and four lefties in the lineup, which is a positive for Sonny Gray. He racks up strikeouts against both sides of the plate, but he’s over 11 K/9 against right-handed bats.

There are plenty of targets in the Twins lineup, and with a pitcher with Gray’s pedigree on Opening Day against his former team at this cheap price, it warrants a half-unit wager up to -120. On BetMGM, the current line is -118, which is a play for me.

Player Prop #2

Derek Hill is projected to hit towards the bottom of the Miami Marlins’ lineup. The Marlins have the toughest Opening Day matchup in baseball: a healthy and rested Paul Skenes. Hill is a 29-year-old journeyman who began his career in Detroit, was picked up by the Nationals, and then played for three different teams last year.

The Marlins’ offense is gutted after dealing away stars last season. In most lineups, Derek Hill can be productive as the short side of the platoon, a right-handed bat that hits lefties. He’s posted a 133 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which is 33% better than the league average. However, against righties is where he’s floundered. Hill has a 39 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is 61% below the league average.

It was an even more considerable discrepancy last season, as he posted a 176 weighted runs created plus against lefties and a 36 weighted runs created plus against righties. Today, he’ll face arguably the best right-handed pitcher in baseball, Paul Skenes, who should throw for at least five innings. I’m very confident he won’t do anything against Skenes.

After Skenes, the Pirates’ top three bullpen arms are also all right-handed, so if Skenes goes six innings, the Marlins won’t see any right-handers. Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza are two lefties who may make an appearance in the fifth, but that doesn’t mean Hill will automatically get a hit.

It’s risky because he cannot get a hit, score a run, or record an RBI for this bet to cash. But at this price with this matchup, it’s worth the half-unit play. At the time of writing, the price is still +140.