The Time to Buy Stock in Blue Jays Prospect Nolan Perry Is Now
Intriguing Blue Jays prospect Nolan Perry is back after undergoing Tommy John surgery with an uptick in stuff that has people turning heads.
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If you’re a Toronto Blue Jays fan who likes to keep tabs on the farm system, the Dunedin Blue Jays are front and center right now. The site for the vast majority of the clubs top prospects at the moment, the Blue Jays A-ball affiliate is flush with talent.
From the likes of JoJo Parker, Juan Sanchez, and Blaine Bullard at the top of the order, to arms like Brandon Barriera, Troy Guthrie, and Karson Ligon on the pitching side. It’s turned into must watch baseball anytime the Dunedin Jays are playing.
One name however, that hasn’t received the buzz he deserves, is right-hander Nolan Perry.
Perry is a former 12th-round selection by the Blue Jays out of Carlsbad High School in New Mexico back in 2022. His signing bonus was $200,000. Perry debuted for the Blue Jays in 2023 at the Florida Complex League and logged 38.1 innings while pitching to a 7.28 ERA/4.05 FIP. His 19.4 K-BB% suggested he pitched a lot better than the ERA would indicate.
In 2024 Perry was promoted to Low-A where he made 14 starts, logging 46 innings and pitching to a 2.93 ERA despite walked 18.8% of the hitters he faced. His season was cut short however when he suffered a UCL injury in August which required Tommy John surgery, thus ending his entire 2025 season as well before it even began.
Fast forward to 2026 and after months of grueling rehab, Perry returned to the mound for the first time since August of ’24. His first three starts have delivered sterling results and are reason for optimism. However the true driver of Perry’s early season helium comes from the improvement of his stuff across the board. The velos are up, the shapes are better, and the results reflect it.
Let’s dive in on potentially the biggest sleeper arm in the Blue Jays system.
The difference in stuff
We can see what Perry’s stuff last looked in 2024 prior to his UCL surgery and what it looks like in his first three starts since returning this April.
Immediately the first thing that jumps out is Perry’s average fastball velocity is up 2 MPH from where it previously sat without sacrificing any shape. Averaging 94 MPH with 18.7″ of IVB and 9.4″ of HB coming from a -4.2 vertical approach angle gives his fastball elite cut-ride action. Hitters are whiffing on it 40% of the time which is truly outlier for a fastball, and when they do make contact it’s of the soft variety.
The curveball has much more of a steeper drop than it did before given the extra -5.5″ of IVB it’s generating. In turn it tunnels even more effectively off of his high riding fastball given they come out of the same slot, look the same out of the hand, but the fastball stays up in the zone while the curveball drops off the table. The diabolical 66.7% whiff rate reflects just how good of a pitch it is.
The sinker is a carbon copy of the four-seamer from a velocity standpoint. It went from averaging 92 MPH to 94 MPH. The shape has remained essentially the exact same, but that added velocity makes up all the difference in the world especially when you have six different pitches to prepare for.
The other pitch with the biggest change in shape is Perry’s changeup. It’s average velocity is up 1.5 MPH while dropping 5.4″ of IVB from where it was in 2024. In an extremely small sample of (seven pitches to be exact) Perry’s changeup has a 66.7% whiff rate and not a single one has been put in play. It’s a pitch I’d love to see Perry utilize more as the season goes on, specifically against left-handed hitters.
Through three starts and 16.2 innings logged, Perry has produced a 1.62 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 46.8% strikeout rate, and a 38.7% K-BB%. This unbelievable start for Perry is legitimate, his pitch mix consists of six above average offerings, an innate ability to miss bats, and the best control oh his career.
What’s the plan for Perry in 2026?
Perry is a guy who’s been in the system for a while, as we mentioned earlier he was apart of the Blue Jays 2022 draft class. However, he was a high school pick. Four years later, he’s still just 22 years old. That said if he can hold his current level of stuff for another couple starts seeing as though he already logged 46 innings with Dunedin a few years back, a promotion to Vancouver should come quickly.
From there he has the opportunity to join a rotation with the likes of Austin Cates, Landen Maroudis, and Daniel Guerra, which would form yet another exciting and loaded pitching staff in the Blue Jays’ system.
The Blue Jays won’t be in a rush to move Perry up, though, given he’s just coming back from a major surgery. They have a strict pitch- and inning-limit on the young hurler this year. Where those bullets get used will be the most intriguing part.
Most would agree he’s not long for Dunedin given his advanced pitch mix and swing and miss ability. The question is will the promotion to Vancouver be the only promotion for Nolan Perry in 2026? Or is there an opportunity for him to finish out the season in Double-A New Hampshire much like Gage Stanifer did a year ago. Only time will tell.
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Written by
Damon's ultimate passion lies in Baseball. An aspiring sports journalist, Damon has been a die hard Blue Jays fan since essentially birth but prides himself from…