Rule 5 Draft Cements Run of First Round Failures for Giants
It's been a rough run of first-round picks for the Giants. The upcoming Rule 5 draft has solidified that narrative.
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The San Francisco Giants built a dynasty in the early 2010s through successful developments and draft picks. Homegrown names like Buster Posey, Tim Lincecum, Brandon Crawford, and Brandon Belt were the core of the organization for the better part of a decade.
In recent years, it’s been quite the opposite for the Giants. Going back almost a decade now, it’s been a tough stretch in terms of draft picks and development for the team by the bay. Thankfully, the Giants have had the money to pay established stars like Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, and Rafael Devers.
However, at some point, this franchise is going to need to develop a couple of draft picks into everyday big leaguers. Prospects like Christian Arroyo, Joey Bart, and Marco Luciano still sit in the backs of Giants fans’ heads because of the excitement they once brought to the farm system.
A few weeks ago, teams had to add eligible minor leaguers to their 40-man rosters in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. The Giants did not protect a single player and notably left off three former first-round draft picks.
Let’s dive into some of the draft and development failures we’ve seen from San Francisco in recent memory.
Will Bednar
Will Bednar — the younger brother of Pirates All-Star and now-Yankee David Bednar— was a lock to be a first-round pick in 2021. His 3.12 ERA in 92.1 IP at Mississippi State was enough to catch the attention of the Giants, and they made it official by taking him with the 14th overall pick.
Since that moment, it’s been a difficult stretch for the National Champion. Early on in his pro career, Bednar struggled mightily to stay on the mound. In 2022, he tossed just 43 innings at Low-A and followed that up with a mere 10.2 innings at the Complex in 2023.
In 2024, the organization decided to switch things up and permanently make him a reliever. Whether it was to keep him healthy or simply because starting wasn’t working out, it ended up being the right call.
Bednar saw a huge uptick in stuff and was comfortably living in the upper 90s with a legit sweeper. This rise in stuff led to a significant rise in strikeouts, with him racking up 12.67 K/9 across three levels that year. He would continue this trend in 2025, with an even bigger jump to 14.45 K/9. However, when the stuff ticked up, so did the command issues.
Between the past two seasons, Bednar has walked 7.27 batters per nine innings, a simply outrageous number.
Nonetheless, Bednar is still the most surprising of the bunch not to get protected. The Giants have been vocal about having to completely rebuild their bullpen this winter. When you consider Bednar’s fastball and slider combination that has the potential to overpower big league hitters, even with the command issues, it would seem like he could be part of that solution.
Reggie Crawford
Bednar wasn’t the only Giants pitching prospect hit with the injury bug, as Reggie Crawford has dealt with blow after blow since getting picked 30th overall in 2022. Built like a middle linebacker, he had overwhelming power on both sides of the ball and was drafted as a two-way player out of the University of Connecticut.
The bat was quickly scratched after only logging 40 professional at-bats between the complex and both Single and High-A, due to the upside in the arm. In 2023, Crawford threw 19.0 innings with a 2.84 ERA.
However, it was in 2024 when he really broke onto the scene. In his first 9.2 innings of the year, at Double-A Richmond, he was striking out almost 18 hitters per nine innings (17.69 K/9). This warranted a quick promotion to Triple-A Sacramento, and all of a sudden, Crawford looked like a legitimate candidate to join the big league bullpen that season.
In Triple-A, he was just as good, if not better. He allowed just one earned run across 8.2 IP and was still striking out hitters 31.4% of the time. The stuff was electric, with his sinker sitting right around 99 mph in the majority of his outings.
Unfortunately, his 2024 and 2025 seasons would be derailed by two consecutive shoulder surgeries. Combine that with the Tommy John surgery he had in college in 2021, and you get quite the injury history.
While it makes sense for San Francisco to not protect him as he’ll likely miss the majority of 2026, it’s been an unfortunate turn of events for someone who once looked like he’d be a high-leverage southpaw in a contending bullpen.
Hunter Bishop
Hunter Bishop was taken 10th overall in the 2019 draft out of Arizona State University. He was a toolshed of a college outfielder whom the Giants dished out just over $4 million to sign.
While he didn’t hit for a ton of average, his first full professional season (2019) was technically a success, as he held a 145 wRC+ in 146 plate appearances between rookie ball and Single-A. However, after that, it was downhill for Bishop.
Injuries held him back in 2021, but in 56 plate appearances that year, he struck out 39.3% of the time and hit just .133. The 2022 season brought a glimmer of hope, as he hit to a 104 wRC+ in 86 games. However, he was still striking out north of 30% of the time and his .233/.318/.404 slash line wasn’t impressing anybody.
After missing all of 2023, his 2024 and 2025 seasons were the nail in the coffin. Over 874 plate appearances across the last two years, the now 27-year-old has been 13 points below average in terms of offense with an 87 wRC+.
While college bats are usually seen as safer picks, this one from the San Francisco Giants panned out to be a total disaster.
Final Thoughts
For Giants fans, this is nothing new. The majority of the last decade has seen a lack of first-round picks coming up and making an impact at the big league level.
Bryce Eldridge, Just Baseball’s #23 overall prospect, is looking to change that in 2026.
With new decision-makers at the helm of the San Francisco Giants — Buster Posey and Zack Minasian — the organization needs to see an uptick in successful developments in the coming seasons.
For a team that built a three-time World Series-winning roster on the shoulders of homegrown talent in the 2010s, it’s been a dry spell of successful draft picks. Outside of Heliot Ramos and Patrick Bailey, you’d have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a year the team got anything significant out of one of its top picks.
Will San Francisco finally change that narrative in terms of development, or will the Giants continue to lag behind the pack when it comes to turning top draft picks into big league talent?
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Michael Monreal got his start in baseball media when he started his own website covering the San Francisco Giants after playing two years of college baseball.…