Did the New York Mets Get Enough in Return for Freddy Peralta?

The Tampa Bay Rays were rumored to be in the running for Tarik Skubal at this year’s trade deadline, and when they missed out, they had to pivot. That pivot turned out to be Freddy Peralta, a pitcher who was traded for an ace-level haul just seven months ago, whom the Rays got for three prospects outside their top 10.

Clearly this is a buy-low move for the Rays, as Peralta is sporting an unsightly 4.99 ERA across his 22 starts in a Mets uniform. His strikeout rate is nearly seven percent worse than his career mark of a 29% K%, and his WHIP is the highest it has been since 2019.

Still, Peralta is just a year removed from finishing top-5 in the NL Cy Young race, thanks to an All-Star season that saw him pitch to a 2.70 ERA, with his third-consecutive 200+ strikeout season. The Rays are hoping that Peralta can find some semblance of that pitcher again.

Meanwhile, the Mets were always going to lose on this trade in terms of the public perception, as this package is immediately compared to what they gave up for Peralta back in January, sending over a pair of top 100 prospects in Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams, while also getting Tobias Myers back in return along with Peralta.

Now, the Mets have turned Peralta into a trio of prospects who are not at the top of a great Rays system, but each offer some upside that the Mets front office can dream on.

Did the Mets Get Enough in Return for Freddy Peralta?

The New York Mets were never going to get two top 100 prospects back for Peralta, but it was fair to wonder if they could pull a rabbit out of their hat and get one back. That is not the case in this deal.

Aiden Smith, based on MLB Pipeline’s rankings, was painted as the headliner, but he might be my least favorite prospect coming back in the deal.

Back in 2024, Smith looked the part of a top prospect, hitting .288/.401/.473, with a 143 wRC+ in 97 games in A-Ball. Drafted out of high school in the fourth round by the Mariners, Smith signed over slot for $1.2 million and took off in his first pro season. At the trade deadline, he was dealt to the Rays in the Randy Arozarena trade.

In his two years in the Rays organization, Smith has struggled, particularly this season, where he has hit just .215/.283/.410, with 10 home runs in 49 games. The power is nice, and his speed translates well on both the base paths and in the outfield. There is upside here, but plenty of downside as well.

Smith could become an above-average defensive center fielder in the big leagues, with the ability to hit for power and steal bases. The problem is that he is running a strikeout rate north of 30% and is not making nearly enough contact.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Émilien Pitre is a contact-oriented second baseman who doesn’t hit for much power. The 23-year-old is having a lot of success this year, posting a .308/.438/.447 slash line split between High-A and Double-A. He has walked over 18% of the time, and he struck out just over 10% of the time.

Finally, Gary Gill Hill is the pitcher the Mets get back in the deal, a 21-year-old right-hander who pounds the strike zone as well as a prospect in the minors. Fifteen of Gill Hill’s starts have come in Double-A this season, and across 81 1/3 innings pitched, Gill Hill has only walked 14 batters (4.1% walk rate).

With his command, Gill Hill is a high-probability fifth starter, but one the Rays would have had to protect in the Rule 5 Draft this winter. The Mets will gladly add Gill Hill to their 40 with less of a roster crunch compared to the Rays, who have three starters in Triple-A that need to be protected this winter as well.

The Mets were always going to lose this trade if you compare it to the one they made to get Peralta originally, but for a pitcher who was tagged for 5+ runs in four of his last nine starts before the deadline, the Mets made out pretty well here.

They land two pretty high-probability big leaguers in Gill Hill and Pitre, while holding onto a lottery ticket in Aiden Smith.

How much worse will Gill Hill and Pitre be compared to Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat?

That will be a fun WAR calculation we can review 10 years from now. Until then, we will never truly know who has won and who has lost the two Freddy Peralta trades of the 2026 season. What we do know is that regardless of the long-term result, Peralta’s Mets tenure is one both sides will soon hope to forget.