Phillies Fall Short Again as October Regression Continues
The Phillies' current core has run its course, as they suffer an early postseason exit at the hands of the rival Braves
The Philadelphia Phillies suffered another heartbreaking exit with a Game 3 loss to the Atlanta Braves, falling short of their ultimate goal, and the old core has continued to regress in their quest to win a World Series title.
Philadelphia dropped Game 1 after Jhoan Duran surrendered a three-run shot to Austin Riley. That loss was emblematic of the season for the club. The bullpen and lineup were not good enough, and it culminated in the Phillies trying to get more out of Duran than they have asked of him all season.
Once again, the lineup simply did not do enough either. Outside of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, the Phillies have had trouble finding consistent players to bolster their lineup and put them in legitimate World Series contention.
An old core is just getting older, and the Phillies have a lot of work they’re going to have to do if they want to reopen their window at winning a World Series.
The Lineup Once Again Failed
Ever since the Phillies’ collapse in the 2023 NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the lineup has not been able to produce enough to help the club advance in the postseason. Philadelphia has not won a series since that 2023 run, and their stale core is holding them back.
The postseason struggles cannot be discussed without starting with Trea Turner. Turner’s regular season was one to forget, hitting .242 with a .675 OPS, while also regressing back to a below average fielder at shortstop.
The struggles for Turner have not stopped in the regular season, as he’s been one of the worst postseason hitters in baseball since 2024. Since that point, he has a 35 wRC+ in the playoffs. Not exactly the production the club is looking for from their $300 million shortstop that bats at the top of their lineup.
Another everyday player who has struggled mightily in October is Bryson Stott, who has hit .181 with a .515 OPS in his postseason career. The Phillies’ middle infielders have not produced in the slightest when the lights are the brightest.
Not only has their middle infield been a black hole offensively in their regression, but their outfield has produced next to nothing. Since 2024, the Phillies’ outfield as a collective has produced a .198 average, .245 wOBA, and a miserable 50 wRC+, according to FanGraphs. Dave Dombrowski’s patchwork approach to the outfield has continuously let this team down.
Philadelphia’s lineup altogether has hit .208 with a .639 OPS with a 75 wRC+ in their last three postseason appearances. Aside from Schwarber and Harper, the Phillies have not had any hitters they could count on in the postseason. If the club wants to get back to the euphoria of the 2022 run, the lineup is going to have to look a lot different in 2027.
The Bullpen Has Imploded in October
It’s no secret that the Phillies attempt to build their team around their pitching staff, but that requires a competent bullpen. Despite investing a lot of resources into relief pitching, Dombrowski has failed to put together a bullpen that his manager can trust.
This October, Don Mattingly’s hands were tied by the lack of reliable options in the bullpen. Orion Kerkering ended the season in Triple-A. Tanner Banks posted a 6.19 ERA. Jonathan Bowlan finished the season with a 4.91 ERA in his final 15 appearances. José Alvarado logged a 5.86 ERA on the season. Tim Mayza only produced in low-leverage situations.
Ultimately, the Phillies were only comfortable using rookie Alex McFarlane and Duran, the closer. Aside from those two, the Phillies got 1.1 innings from the rest of their relievers for the entire series. Mattingly had to rely on Zack Wheeler and Andrew Painter to pick up a bulk of the relief innings. Not exactly a recipe for success.
This season was not the only one where Phillies’ managers had limited options in the pen. Since 2024, the Phillies have a 6.28 postseason ERA from relievers. Even with All-Star seasons from Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm, the bullpen still blew up when it mattered most.
Philadelphia moved two high-end prospects for Duran, and they have yet to get him into the ninth inning of a postseason game with a lead. Dombrowski’s failures have compounded into the Phillies continuing to take a step back. The horrid bullpen and poor lineup construction weigh down arguably the most talented starting rotation in baseball.
Where Do the Phillies Go From Here?
The Phillies’ core players are not getting any younger, nor are they going anywhere. Dombrowski locked up 35-year-old catcher J.T. Realmuto through the 2028 season. Turner has seven years remaining on his deal. Harper has five years left on his contract. Aaron Nola has four seasons left in Philadelphia. Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sanchez are both tied down long-term. This team is not going to blow it up.
This offseason will bring many decisions that need to be made by the Phillies’ front office. The following players are all pending free agents:
There will be a long list of tasks the club needs to complete this offseason. Making the bullpen dependable come October has to be a priority. Solving the eternal problem in the outfield will be another. The Phillies also need to add complementary pieces around Harper and Schwarber that can deliver in October.
It’s very likely the Phillies part ways with Mattingly, the interim manager. The club was heavily tied to former Red Sox manager Alex Cora at the time of Rob Thomson’s firing, with Cora opting to spend the season with his family. If Cora decides to return the baseball, the Phillies will certainly be the favorite to land him. If the Phillies decide to keep around Dombrowski, his Boston ties make Cora the clear candidate for the job.
If the Phillies want a chance of another magical run reminiscent of 2022, they will have to pull off their best offseason yet. The 2027 Phillies, aside from their rotation, cannot look anything like the team that took the field in 2026. This was a very flawed team that limped into the postseason then suffered an early exit, and it now needs to be significantly reshaped.
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Written by
Chris is a contributor at Just Baseball, specializing in Phillies and prospect coverage. Chris is from Central Jersey and a recent Rutgers University graduate. You can…