How Will the Phillies Use Their Bullpen in the Playoffs?

The Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen has played a critical role in each of their last two postseason runs.

Phillies relievers went 6-0 with five saves and a 2.62 ERA in the 2022 playoffs. And while some high-profile relievers had some high-profile meltdowns the following year, the 2023 bullpen still produced a 2.23 ERA in October.

The latest iteration of the Phillies’ bullpen has the talent to produce similarly excellent numbers. Their 3.94 ERA this season was middle-of-the-pack (14th in MLB), but that number doesn’t reflect the true talent of this group – especially when it comes to their postseason potential.

For one thing, it wouldn’t be fair to judge the current Phillies’ bullpen on the performances of pitchers who are no longer on the team, such as Seranthony Domínguez (4.75 ERA) or Gregory Soto (4.08 ERA).

The same goes for position players like Garrett Stubbs (15.75 ERA) and Kody Clemens (9.00 ERA). If Stubbs or Clemens is pitching in the playoffs, something has gone seriously wrong.

It’s also important to remember that a smaller number of pitchers will play an outsized role in the playoffs. It takes a village of arms to get through a 162-game season. The postseason is a different beast.

The Phillies’ seven best relievers are, in no particular order, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Carlos Estévez, Orion Kerkering, Tanner Banks, José Alvarado, and José Ruiz. Those seven combined for a 2.83 ERA out of the Phillies bullpen in 2024.

Every other reliever who donned red pinstripes in 2024 combined for a 6.02 ERA. You can see why the bullpen’s collective 3.94 ERA isn’t an especially meaningful number.

What Will the Phillies’ Postseason Bullpen Look Like?

Teams can carry up to 13 pitchers in the playoffs. The Phillies need four starters on their roster, which leaves room for as many as nine relievers.

Manager Rob Thomson suggested he’ll opt for a five-man bench and an eight-man bullpen, at least for the NLDS. However, that could change if the Phillies advance to the NLCS; Thomson might prefer an extra arm for a seven-game series.

First things first, here’s how an eight-man bullpen could look for the NLDS:

Carlos Estévez

Estévez has been the closer since the trade deadline, pitching to a 2.57 ERA in 20 appearances.

The underlying numbers aren’t quite as strong – his strikeouts are down and his walk has doubled since he joined the Phillies – but there’s no reason to think he’s at risk of losing his role. He hasn’t thrown so much as a single pitch before the ninth inning since arriving in Philadelphia.

Jeff Hoffman

Hoffman has been the Phillies’ most valuable reliever over the past two seasons. If anyone deserves to be the closer, it’s probably him, but I’m not complaining that he gets to play a more varied role instead.

The right-hander struggled in his final outing of the season, and he’s been dealing with some neck stiffness lately, but there’s no reason to think he won’t be good to go for Game 1 on Saturday.

Presuming Estévez stays in his niche, Hoffman will be Thomson’s deadliest weapon before the ninth inning.

Matt Strahm

Strahm is the Phillies’ best left-hander, although he’s an excellent option with or without the platoon advantage.

If you wanted to give each of these guys a traditional role, Estévez is the closer, Hoffman is the set-up man, and Strahm is the seventh-inning guy. But the truth is, Thomson really just has three high-leverage studs at his disposal. Don’t be surprised if these three combine for almost half of Philadelphia’s bullpen innings in October.

Orion Kerkering

Kerkering has played a lower-leverage role than Estévez, Hoffman, and Strahm this year, but his numbers and his stuff are just as impressive. In fact, the 23-year-old phenom probably has the best pure stuff of anyone in this bullpen.

It was a gift for Thomson all year long that he could regularly call on a pitcher like Kerkering as early as the fifth or sixth inning.

José Alvarado

Alvarado has dealt with diminished stuff all season. Luckily, a diminished version of 2022-23 Alvarado is still a solid pitcher and an effective lefty specialist.

He also looked better toward the end of the year, with 13 strikeouts and a 2.61 ERA over his last 11 appearances. Alvarado isn’t going to be a late-inning weapon for the Phillies this October, but thankfully, he doesn’t have to be. The team has four other guys who have stepped up to fill that role.

José Ruiz

As strange as it feels to be writing this, Ruiz is another lock for the Phillies’ postseason bullpen.

The Phillies signed Ruiz to a minor league contract over the offseason. He was coming off the worst season of his career, in which he put up a 5.89 ERA and -0.7 fWAR in 44.1 IP for the White Sox and Diamondbacks.

He didn’t make the Phillies’ Opening Day roster, and he spent the first five weeks of the season at Triple-A.

Yet, since his call-up on May 3, Ruiz has stuck around. He gave the team 51 solid innings throughout the regular season, finishing with a 3.71 ERA. He even took on some higher-leverage opportunities toward the end of the year and proved he was up to the task.

It’s a sign of a strong bullpen when even the low-leverage arms are this reliable.

Tanner Banks

Banks was one of the White Sox’s higher-leverage arms over the first half of the season. Unsurprisingly, he’s taken on a much lower-leverage role as a member of the Phillies.

Another left-hander, Banks has put up strong numbers against same-handed hitters this year (.267 wOBA, 2.28 FIP, 2.77 xFIP) and capable numbers against opposite-handed opponents (.312 wOBA, 3.95 FIP, 4.19 xFIP).

It’s a great asset for Thomson to have both Banks and Alvarado in his ‘pen. With those two lefties at his disposal, the skipper can save Strahm to use in more important spots – regardless of platoon matchups.

Who Fills the Final Spot?

Spencer Turnbull

Fans have long been hoping Spencer Turnbull would make a quick enough recovery from his lat strain to join the bullpen for the playoffs. That could still happen, but probably not for the NLDS.

According to Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Thomson thought Turnbull looked “fine,” but “erratic” during an intrasquad game on Wednesday. That’s not exactly a glowing review. Needless to say, the skipper seemed to think the right-hander wasn’t quite ready to return.

There’s absolutely no reason for the Phillies to rush Turnbull, who hasn’t pitched in a major league game since June. Putting a pitcher who isn’t ready to return on the NLDS roster would only do more harm than good.

Max Lazar

The Phillies have been tight-lipped about their roster decisions so far. However, Matt Gelb of The Athletic suggests Max Lazar has the inside track on the final spot in the bullpen.

This might seem surprising. Lazar is a rookie who only appeared in 11 games for the Phillies in 2024. He put up a 4.61 ERA and a 4.84 xERA before he was optioned back to the minors in mid-September.

That said, Lazar put up eye-catching numbers in the minors this year. He pitched to a 1.87 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 43.1 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

To be clear, the 25-year-old right-hander is hardly a trustworthy option. His impressive minor league stats don’t change that. Still, Lazar could offer a bit more upside than any of the other options, especially against a more right-handed Mets lineup.

Taijuan Walker

According to Gelb, Taijuan Walker is unlikely to be on the Phillies’ NLDS roster. Considering the way his season ended (9.68 ERA in August and September), it’s not hard to see why.

The only argument for Walker is if the Phillies want a mop-up man who can preserve the rest of the bullpen in case of a blowout. Walker hasn’t given this team any reason to trust him, but one thing he can still do is eat innings.

Kolby Allard

Gelb also mentioned Kolby Allard as a reliever the Phillies were considering for the NLDS roster. However, he noted that Allard’s chances would have been much better if the Phillies were facing the Brewers. Allard is left-handed, and the Brewers have more left-handed hitters in their lineup than the Mets.

However, if the Phillies want a mop-up arm (and they don’t trust Walker), Allard would make a lot more sense than Lazar. Allard made 21 starts this year between Triple-A and the majors.

Looking Ahead to the NLCS

If the Phillies advance to the NLCS, there’s a good chance they’ll cut a bench player and add another pitcher to the roster. If Turnbull is ready to go, he’ll probably have the inside track on a roster spot. Lazar, Walker, and Allard could battle it out for the final opening.

If Turnbull isn’t ready, it’s possible the Phillies stick with eight relievers in the bullpen. It would be an unusual decision, but given the uninspiring options, I can see why they’d rather have an extra bat.