To Keep Winning, the Padres Need More From Their Big Bats

For all their early success and signs of improvement, the San Diego Padres still have a problem: Their biggest bats haven’t shown up yet.

Last season, the offense was lackluster in a multitude of ways, especially given the star power in the lineup. So often, it felt like a group that was built to drive the ball instead had to scratch and claw for runs. This season, however, the group has already shown clear signs of improvement. 

After ranking near the bottom of the league in most power statistics in 2025, the team now ranks 24th in home runs per PA (17), 20th in slugging (.369), and 20th in ISO (.137). Most impressively, they rank second in Statcast’s hard-hit rate (45.6%). Considering the team ranked dead last in the NL in hard-hit rate last season (37.8%), it looks like their offensive ceiling is starting to be reached. 

These signs are very promising for an offense that struggled to score as often as it should. However, there is still more meat on the bone for this squad. 

Hitters That Are Carrying the Load

Before getting to the stars, it’s worth highlighting the players already breathing life into the offense.

This list has to start with Ramón Laureano. Since being acquired last deadline, all he’s done is hit. From the start of 2025, he has slashed .280/.340/.512, making his $6.5 million salary one of the best deals in baseball. Now penciled in as the leadoff hitter, he’s been a catalyst for the offense, consistently setting the tone early in games. 

Alongside him, Xander Bogaerts has continued to improve following his down year in 2024. He has 17 hits in his last 13 games, five of which were multi-hit efforts.

This span has also included three home runs, and overall this season, Bogaerts is batting .266 with a .746 OPS. More importantly, he is driving the ball to all parts of the field, with 10 of his 21 hits being up the middle or to the right side. 

Perhaps the most encouraging part of Bogaerts’ start to this season isn’t his results, but his approach. His strikeout rate has dropped substantially, while his walk rate is up. With fewer holes in his game, he should slump less and consistently contribute in the middle of the order. 

The duo of Miguel Andujar and Gavin Sheets is working exactly as A.J. Preller envisioned. Andujar is providing the average (.313), while Sheets brings the power (.470 slugging). It isn’t the sexiest duo in the world, but it lengthens the lineup in ways the Padres couldn’t have had enough of a season ago. 

More broadly, there’s been a noticeable willingness from Craig Stammen to shuffle the order. Lineup flexibility has allowed the Padres to ride the hot bats, like Laureano, and optimize matchups early in the season. A stark difference from a year ago, when the order felt static. 

Who Needs To Heat Up?

As the saying goes, the stars need to be stars, and the Padres are no exception to that. 

As highlighted earlier, the Padres as a whole are hitting at a significantly better clip, but the offense is scratching the surface of what it can be. 

The star trio of Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Manny Machado has yet to fully get going.

On April 10, Tatis joked that the “baseball gods are really mad at me right now,” and the underlying numbers back that up. His average exit velocity sits at 94.1 mph (94th percentile), with a 14.5% barrel rate (87th percentile), and a 67.7% hard-hit rate (100th percentile). All of these signs point to a hitter doing almost everything right. 

To put it plainly, Tatis is murdering the baseball, and when a player is producing that kind of quality of contact, results normally follow. Yet, he has yet to hit a home run, and his overall offensive line is below league average (.644 OPS, 91 wRC+).

Merril, meanwhile, is hitting .221 this season. Similar to Tatis, he owns just a .667 OPS and 86 wRC+.

He is making decent quality contact in terms of barrel rate (13.4%) and hard hit rate (46.3%). However, his aggressiveness is failing him so far. He’s chasing 40.3% of the time and whiffing 28.5% of the time. That’s not ideal. 

This isn’t to say he needs a complete overhaul of his approach. As a rookie, he chased 34.5% of the time and still hit .292 with an .826 OPS. But when a player is slumping, that kind of aggressiveness gets exposed. It’s a tightrope. His approach is part of what makes him special, but when the results aren’t there, it naturally can look worse. 

Of the big three, Machado is the number one concern. 

One of this generation’s best players is off to an uncharacteristic start, batting .186 with a .630 OPS. Unlike for Tatis, Machado’s rough stretch can’t be chalked up to bad luck, at least not entirely. His bat speed, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate are all down. 

What makes this more puzzling is that his plate discipline looks great. His 21.7% chase rate indicates he isn’t flailing at pitches, and his 18.2% walk rate would easily be a career high. Mixed with his decline in bat speed, it seems like a timing issue. 

He is batting .167 against all fastball types, .167 against all breaking balls and whiffing at each of them more than 25% of the time. For a player of his caliber, it’s unusual to see. 

This doesn’t mean it’s time to slam the panic button; players with Machado’s track record tend to figure it out. However, these drops in the underlying metrics will be worth monitoring if his slump persists into May. 

Final Thoughts

Through the first stretch of the season, the Padres have shown they are a better offensive team than they were a year ago. Their quality of contact is up, their depth has improved, and they recently won 10 straight in dramatic fashion. 

But without consistent production from their biggest names, the margin of error becomes thin. 

On paper and statistically, this is a top-half offense. And if Tatis, Merrill, and Machado begin to click at the same time, this lineup will take a massive leap.

With an already weak pitching staff being tested, especially with Nick Pivetta hitting the IL for an extended period, the need for that leap becomes more urgent. 

All the potential for a lethal offense is there. Now it is about turning that potential into something sustainable.