MLB Playoffs Game 2: Ranking Pitching Matchups

Just one day into the 2024 MLB Playoffs, things have started off on a wild note. Especially for those of us who love pitching duels. On Tuesday, three of the four games played resulted in one side scoring one run or less.

Corbin Burnes once again fell victim to a serious lack of run support. On the flip side, Cole Ragans stepped up when the Royals needed him to.

Tarik Skubal showed why he’s the obvious AL Cy Young this year and Michael King struck out 12 Braves in a game where he could’ve done the same thing throwing underhanded.

Most of the teams sent the past their pitching staff has to offer to the mound in an effort to get ahead in the series when they can. There’s no holding anything back when it comes to the playoffs; your best pitcher is going to go whenever he’s needed.

Things holds true for the Tigers in particular, as today’s starting pitcher appeared in last night’s game, too. More on that in a moment.

These top pitching matchups are what the playoffs are all about. There is nothing quite like watching the very best this game has to offer go at it on the big stage.

Tuesday was all about the pitchers, and based off of the projected pitching matchups for Wednesday’s games, we’re likely to see the exact same story. Let’s rank the projected matchups for the second games of the playoff-opening series.

Game 2 of the MLB Playoffs: Ranking the Pitching Matchups

4. Mets @ Brewers: Manaea vs. Montas, 7:38 p.m. ET

Did anyone have Sean Manaea emerging as the ace of the Mets on their bingo card? Anyone? I didn’t either. The left-hander put up a full 32-start season for the first time since 2021 and was easily the best pitcher on the Mets’ staff.

In 181.2 innings, the 32-year-old went 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP and 114 ERA+. This performance went a long way to ensuring that he’s a highly sought after piece on the upcoming free agent market. The one-year deal he signed with the Mets this past offseason contains a player option for 2025, but there’s no shot he picks that up. The man’s going to get paid.

Notably, Manaea’s last start of the regular season came against these very same Brewers. He went just 3.2 innings after allowing six runs (five earned) on seven hits, walking two and striking out just one. Those numbers are much different than what we typically see from him, but it’s worth bringing up regardless.

Taking the mound for the Brewers will deadline acquisition Frankie Montas. The nine-year veteran flashed potential for the Crew down the stretch, but he still managed to record a 4.55 ERA in 11 starts post-trade. His strikeout numbers went from 7.5 K/9 on the Reds to 11.0 with the Brewers, but he still ran into his usual issues with run prevention as the season marched on.

Manaea and Montas squared off against each other’s teams to end the regular season, so Montas’ final start came against the Mets. He went four innings with six strikeouts and three walks while surrendering two runs on as many hits.

3. Tigers @ Astros: Holton vs. Brown, 2:32 p.m. ET

Left-hander Tyler Holton will function as an “opener” for the Tigers today. Don’t let the fact that this matchup will be a bullpen game from Detroit, because Holton put together an incredible 2024 regular season.

All told, the 28-year-old made 66 appearances (nine of them as an opener), posting a 2.19 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and 186 ERA+ across 94.1 innings of work. He is one of the best multi-inning relievers in baseball and is more than capable of leading the charge for the Tigers today.

As of right now, the expectation is that right-hander Reese Olson will be the “follower” for Detroit. He missed a few months earlier this year with a shoulder injury but overall, his season went well. The 24-year-old made 22 starts with a 3.53 ERA and 3.17 FIP, but each of his three post-injury starts were four innings or less, so expect much of the same from him today.

Opposing the Holton-Olson tandem will be Hunter Brown of the Astros. In what was his second full season in the big leagues, Brown took significant steps forward in nearly every single category. All told, he made 30 starts and finished his regular season with a respectable 3.49 ERA and 3.58 FIP. The Astros’ season hangs in the balance, and it’s going to be up to Brown to keep their hopes alive. No pressure.

2. Royals @ Orioles: Lugo vs. Eflin, 4:38 p.m. ET

If it wasn’t for that dang Skubal guy, it’s very possible that Seth Lugo did enough to take home the AL Cy Young this year, which is a crazy sentence to type. The right-hander is in just his second season since a return to a full-time starting pitching role. He certainly did not show that this year.

Lugo went 16-9 on the underdog Royals, posting a 3.00 ERA, 3.25 FIP and 141 ERA+ across a career-high 206.2 innings of work. He made the first All-Star Game of his career at 34 and so far, has proven to be worth every penny Kansas City threw at him this past offseason.

Zach Eflin, another trade deadline acquisition, will be opposing Lugo. Eflin, 30, took the world by storm on the Orioles after being traded by the Rays. He made nine starts post-deadline, posting a 2.60 ERA along the way. His strikeout numbers raised and his hits-per-nine went down over one full hit, too.

This matchup is an obvious choice to rank near the top, as it features one pitcher who consistently was one of the best in the league this year, and another who waited until the trade deadline passed to turn his game up to the next level. This could easily be another 1-0 finish, which is about as much as you can ask for out of a pitchers duel.

1. Braves @ Padres: Fried vs. Musgrove, 8:38 p.m. ET

The Braves are Chris Sale-less for the Wild Card Series and enter today with their backs against the wall. Their last hopes will ride on the shoulders of Max Fried, who is just wrapping up yet another successful season near the top of Atlanta’s rotation.

There’s no way this one couldn’t be the top-ranked matchup of the day. This is what the MLB Playoffs is all about. Fried made the All-Star Game thanks to a strong showing and, like Sale, will earn some Cy Young votes once the year wraps up. He went 11-10 with a 3.25 ERA across 29 starts, throwing a league-leading two complete games along the way.

Then there’s Joe Musgrove, who the Padres will send to the mound as they aim to eliminate the pesky Braves. The 31-year-old fought through another injury-riddled campaign this year, but he remained at the top of his game when he was healthy.

In 19 starts, the right-hander went 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA and 106 ERA+ across 99.2 innings. He saw a slight decline in a few pitching categories from last year to this one, but he remains an above-average pitcher. In each of his last three starts of the regular season, Musgrove went six or more innings while allowing two or less runs in each outing.

Both arms in this game have some recent playoff experience under their belts. It’s going to be interesting to see how the Braves approach this game knowing that their season could come to an end with another loss.