The Brewers’ Lineup Must Find a Way To Turn Things Around

It hasn’t been the start that many Brewers fans envisioned heading into the 2025 season.

They currently sit fourth in the NL Central with a 20-23 record. They’re five games behind the division-leading Cubs, and they have a negative run differential at -4. In short, things just haven’t seemed to click for this team quite yet.

But given the adversity that the Brewers have had to fight through, specifically with the myriad of injuries to their starters, things could be a lot worse. They deserve credit for staying afloat despite piecing together the vast majority of their rotation to this point.

With that being said, the current version of the Milwaukee Brewers doesn’t look like the team that won 93 games a season ago.

It’s only the middle of May, and there is obviously plenty of baseball yet to be played. However, this team seems be lacking the same type of energy that they played with a season ago, and their woes on offense have played a big part in that.

In order for this team to turn things around, the offense needs to find its identity and get back on track sooner rather than later.

The Brewers’ Offense Is Lacking a Spark

The Brewers’ offense is trending in the wrong direction. On the year as a whole, they rank 19th in MLB in wRC+ (85) and 27th in OPS (.656). In terms of power, they’ve been near the bottom of the league.

The Brewers’ 35 homers are the sixth fewest in baseball to this point, and their team slugging percentage of .349 is the third worst in MLB; only the Pirates and the White Sox have worse marks.

Relatedly, Milwaukee ranks 27th in MLB in ISO at .119. They’re also 25th in the league in batting average at .230, so not only are they lacking pop, but the hits haven’t been falling for them either.

The results have been even worse in the month of May, though. Since the calendar flipped to May, the Brewers rank last in the following categories: hits (66), batting average (.177), on-base percentage (.248), slugging percentage (.276), OPS (.524), wRC+ (48).

They were shutout in back-to-back games for the second time this month on Wednesday, and they are tied with the Pirates for the fewest runs scored in the month of May at 25.

When looking under the hood at what’s driving this downturn in offensive production, there are a handful of contributing factors, including a lack of impactful swings and a major step back in timely hitting.

A Step Back in Quality of Contact

It hasn’t been all bad on offense. In some cases, the Brewers are continuing with their winning formula from a season ago of taking the extra base and putting pressure on the opposing defense.

The brewers currently lead MLB in steals with 56, which is six more than the next closest team. As a whole, they’re continuing to make good swing decisions, which is something that was a strength of the lineup from a season ago.

In fact, the 2025 Brewers are chasing at nearly the same rate as last season while whiffing less overall and making more contact on pitches within the strike zone when compared to 2024. In theory, that should have translated to similar, if not better results at the plate.

However, that has been far from the case.

Milwaukee’s quality of contact has been extremely poor to start the 2025 season. It’s been a slight step back in hard-hit rate (38.3%, 25th in MLB) and average exit velocity (88.2 mph, 29th in MLB) from a season ago, and the Brewers currently have a barrel rate of just 5.8% this season. That is the lowest in MLB by nearly a full percent.

They’re getting swings off and making contact at a strong rate, but the quality of contact on those swings has been far from ideal.

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As a whole, they’re putting the ball on the ground at a 48.8% rate, which is the second-highest ground-ball rate in MLB and a 3.3% increase from a season ago.

But even in 2024 when the Brewers finished with the fourth-highest ground-ball rate, they made it work thanks to their incredible speed throughout the lineup. That element of speed hasn’t changed, though, as was highlighted earlier. Just like last year, the Brewers have the highest average sprint speed in MLB at 27.9 feet per second.

But the lineup is making weaker contact as a whole and is putting the ball on the ground at an even higher rate, thus limiting their ability to put that elite speed to good use.

That’s highlighted by Milwaukee’s drastic swing in BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. Last season, the Brewers had the fourth-highest BABIP in baseball at .305. In 2025, that number has plummeted nearly 100 points to .218, which is the single-lowest mark in the game.

That is such a significant drop and one that can be explained by Milwaukee’s dip in quality of contact. Sure they’re putting the ball in play at a fine rate, but the quality of balls in play has been noticeably worse.

In 2024, the team ranked 13th in xWOBA and 17th in xwOBACON, which is the expected wOBA on contact, which excludes walks, strikeouts and hit-by-pitches. This season, the Brewers have the third-worst xwOBA (.304) and the single-lowest xwOBACON (.344) in MLB.

Now, BABIP is a stat that tends to fluctuate as the sample sizes grow, and a sweeping conclusion shouldn’t be drawn from a low BABIP just a month and a half into the season. However, a number that low and a change that drastic from a season ago does help explain some of the struggles this offense is going through.

Poor Timely Hitting

Another area in which this lineup has regressed is its timely hitting and production in key moments of the game.

The Brewers were near the top of the league in runs scored last season despite finishing in the bottom half of baseball in homers and ISO. Instead, they manufactured run production by taking the extra base, something they’ve continued to do this season, and coming up with timely hits, something the offense has struggled with to this point.

Last year, when the Brewers had runners on base, they had a 119 wRC+ (third in MLB) and hit .272 as a team with an .804 OPS, which were fifth and third in MLB, respectively.

This season, when hitting with runners on base, the Brewers have a 95 wRC+ (20th in MLB), with a .245 average (17th in MLB) and .695 OPS (20th in MLB).

To take it a step further, when hitting with runners in scoring position, the Brewers went from one of the better teams in baseball a season ago to one of the worst this season.

In 2024, Milwaukee was top five in batting average (.268), OBP (.352), and SLG (.458) with runners in scoring position. Their OPS of .809 was the second best in baseball, and their wRC+ of 122 was the fourth best.

This year, the Brewers are hitting .248 with runners in scoring position with an OPS of .689 that is 23rd in baseball. Likewise, their 92 wRC+ with runners in scoring position is also 23rd in the sport.

The Brewers’ offense held its own last season thanks to its ability to drive in runs at opportune times. But so far in 2025, that same degree of success has not translated in the early going of the season.

Again, the sample size is still relatively small compared to 2024, but it’s an area the Brewers have noticeably struggled in, especially as of late.

For a Turnaround To Happen, the Offense Must Step Up

Among regulars in the lineup, the Brewers have just four hitters with a wRC+ above 100: Rhys Hoskins (123), Brice Turang (113), Sal Frelick (107), and Jackson Chourio (106). While it’s encouraging to see some of their young hitters step up, the remainder of the batting order hasn’t produced with any degree of consistency.

Christian Yelich has had a very slow start to has 2025 campaign, and his lack of impact in the heart of the lineup has been a major contributor to this team’s poor offensive production. Likewise, Contreras hasn’t had the start he was hoping for, as he’s hitting just .224 with an 86 wRC+ and .655 OPS through his first 168 plate appearances

Their slow starts have certainly played a role in what we’ve discussed thus far, but the problem goes beyond those two names as well.

The Brewers had a noticeable hole to fill at third base since the offseason began. Instead of filling the position externally, they elected to go with in-house options, and the experiment has not worked thus far.

The Brewers have received a 27 wRC+ from the third base position to this point to go with a .451 OPS. To little surprise, those are the worst marks in MLB. Third base is supposed to be a key position of offensive production, and the Brewers have received anything but that to this point.

Its a very similar story at shortstop. In his first year as the club’s starting shortstop, Joey Ortiz has gotten off to a dreadful start at the plate. Among qualified hitters, Ortiz has the lowest OPS in the sport at .451.

The Brewers are also near the bottom of the league in production from their DH position with an 85 wRC+ (25th) and .655 OPS (26th). Overall, there are just too many key players at important spots in the lineup who are not producing, and its led to some extreme dry spells at the dish.

The offense lacks major energy at the moment, and the lineup’s bottom-tier production, specifically this month, paints a larger picture of what could be a major shortcoming of this ball club as the season progresses.

Again, there’s still plenty of time for this offense to turn things around. It’s a long season, and the Brewers have talented, proven hitters in their lineup who can carry this team when they get hot.

But those hitters have yet to get hot to this point, and we’re seeing what the offense looks like when their stars aren’t coming through at the plate.