Mickey Moniak’s Breakthrough Seems To Have Arrived

Not too long ago, Colorado Rockies outfielder Mickey Moniak appeared one of the great draft busts of the 21st century.

The Philadelphia Phillies drafted the now 27-year-old back in 2016 with the first-overall pick. His minor-league career before debuting in 2020 was merely passable, but he flashed potential in eight games during that COVID-shortened campaign.

But that’s all he flashed in what was a 47-game career for the Phillies. After a .130/.184/.152 slash line across 18 games in 2022, he became part of a trade that sent right-handed pitcher Noah Syndergaard to the Phillies, who ended up two wins shy of a World Series title.

Moniak had an up-and-down career with the Los Angeles Angels. The 2023 campaign acted as something of a breakout, as he posted a 115 wRC+ with 14 home runs in 85 games. However, he reverted to an 80 wRC+ across 124 games.

After struggling in spring training last year, the Halos released the former first-overall pick. Two days later, he was a member of the Rockies.

Fast forward 13 months, and he’s emerged as an early-season All-Star candidate. Through 24 games, he has a 162 wRC+ with eight home runs, tying him for 15th in the majors, and he’s done so in fewer than 100 plate appearances.

We’ve seen Moniak have power surges before with stretches of dominance. What’s going right for him in 2026?

Stats were taken prior to play on April 30.

He’s Making More Quality Contact

It’s not a massive leap, but Moniak’s whiff rate is one percent lower than in 2025 and over three percent lover than in 2024. Last year, Moniak whiffed at a 28.2% clip with a sixth-percentile chase rate of 38%.

He’s still prone to chase. In fact, he’s chasing even more frequently to open the year, but he’s making more contact overall.

Not only is he making more contact, but he’s also crushing the ball. Entering play Thursday, Moniak ranked in the 70th percentile for barrel rate, 70th percentile for expected slugging, and 60th percentile for average exit velocity.

Moreover, he’s even more pull happy than he was a season ago. This isn’t a new development in his career. In fact, the only time he’s posted a pull air rate below 23.7% was 2021. That season, he only had 18 batted ball events.

This year, his pull air rate is a career-high 28.6%. Not only is that the best mark of his career, but it’s also among the highest rates in Major League Baseball.

He’s Crushing the Fastball

Since his first taste of MLB success, Moniak’s been a solid hitter against fastballs. The lone exception is his lackluster 2024 season. That year, he posted a .293 expected wOBA with a 27.3% whiff rate. Entering Thursday, he’s hitting .375 with a .372 expected wOBA, lowering his whiff rate to 22.0%.

Of his eight homers, three are against fastballs. The past four years, 33 of his 60 big flies are against the fastball.

He’s especially tightened the screws against higher-end velocity. In 2026, he’s posting a .400 average with an .867 slug against pitches 95 mph or harder. That .867 slugging percentage is tied for eighth in the league among 265 hitters who’ve faced at least 250 pitches.

He’s also whiffing a ton against velocity, but that’s always been part of his game. What matters is what he’s doing on the contact he is making. When he’s hitting the ball, he’s crushing the ball. For a team like the Rockies, who’ve exceeded early-season expectations, they’ll take the kind of results Moniak is flashing to open 2026.

Rewarding Contact on Breaking Pitches

Moniak’s never been one to crush secondaries, but so far, he is in 2026. He’s not finding more success overall, his batting average against breakers entering Thursday is up only a couple points from last year. However, the hits he’s getting are yielding much more damage.

He’s hit four homers against 133 breaking pitches in 2026. Last year, he hit four homers against off speed in 454 offerings; just three in 488 offerings in 2024.

It’s not always fruitful to bank on the kind of results a player is getting on certain pitches. Time and time again we see players over or underperform their quality of contact and batted-ball data. What we can use as a reference is that quality of contact as well as how frequently they’re making contact in general.

Moniak still whiffs against breaking balls 30% of the time. However, early returns show slight improvement in that field. What’s more, his average exit velocity against breakers is 91.6 mph — up from 88.5 and 88.1 mph the past two years.

It’s still early, but it’s hard to look at his early season results and not be encouraged there’s a real shot this is a true breakout.

Warning Signs of Regression

Such is life, but not everything about Moniak’s game is indicative of long-term success.

For starters, because he’s so prone to chase, he doesn’t walk a whole lot. Entering Thursday, the 27-year-old had just a 5.6% walk rate, which is in the 18th percentile. When things are rolling, that’s not something to worry about too much. However, when the inevitable slump comes, you can really feel the lows because he’s not reaching base.

Moreover, he’s made strides with his bat-to-ball, but he’s far from full resolved that. His whiff rate is 36th percentile, his strikeout rate is 35th percentile.

Again, all those are improved from last year. However, improving doesn’t mean the lows won’t remain exceptionally low as he struggles commanding the zone and making consistent contact.

So far, he’s optimizing the contact he is making by relentlessly pulling the ball in the air and finding the barrel. Time will tell if he can keep that up, and potentially even improve further upon those red flags as the year wears on.