Home Run Derby Field Set, Betting Odds on Who Will Win
The MLB Home Run Derby is around the corner, and we are taking a look at the odds for who will win straight up.
MLB All-Star weekend is upon us, and with it comes the Home Run Derby. Eight sluggers will step in the box at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas with the hopes of taking home the Home Run Derby crown.
Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr, Pete Alonso, Marcell Ozuna, Alec Bohm, Jose Ramirez, Adolis Garcia, and Teoscar Hernandez are the eight participants. Before hopping into the odds, there are some new rules to keep in mind for the Home Run Derby. Most notably, the hitters will only get 40 pitches to hit as many home runs as they can.
As mentioned earlier, the Texas Rangers will host All-Star Weekend at Globe Life Field. According to baseball savants park factors, the Rangers have a generally hitter friendly park. Their park factor is just above average, but their home runs are fourth-highest since the start of 2022.
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Home Run Derby odds – Straight up winner
| Participants | Odds |
| Pete Alonso | +310 |
| Marcell Ozuna | +375 |
| Adolis Garcia | +450 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +475 |
| Bobby Witt Jr | +500 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | +1000 |
| Jose Ramirez | +1400 |
| Alec Bohm | +1600 |
Gunnar Henderson – Baltimore Orioles
Henderson had an incredible rookie year as he won Rookie of the Year. He has followed that up with a sophomore campaign that might see him win the American League MVP. Through July 10th, Henderson has launched 27 home runs. That is third in the MLB behind only Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.
Looking at some advanced stats, Henderson is sixth among qualified hitters in average bat speed, fifth in average exit velocity, and sixth in fast swing percentage. He swings hard and makes loud contact often. Watching him try to blast balls out of Globe Life Field is going to be a lot of fun.
Bobby Witt Jr – Kansas City Royals
Witt has hit 15 home runs this season, but do not let that fool you. Fifteen home runs is not a whole bunch, but it is 30th highest in the MLB. However, Witt is 21st in bat speed, 20th in fast swing percentage, 12th in barrel percentage, and 13th in average exit velocity. He might not hit a whole bunch of 440 foot home runs for the extra time, but he should be able to hit close to 20.
This is Witt’s first time in the MLB Home Run Derby, but it is not his first Home Run Derby. Witt won the high school Home Run Derby before he got drafted. He is no stranger to the pressure, and his bat speed will say it all for him.
Pete Alonso – New York Mets
Alonso is a Home Run Derby favorite every year. He loves this event, and takes it the more serious of anybody in recent memory. In fact, Alonso has won the Home Run Derby in both 2019 and 2021. Alonso has 18 home runs on the season, and his bat speed is 16th-best in the MLB.
Alonso will hit some monster home runs. You earn extra time if you hit long enough home runs, but extra time is a bit different this year. Now, you get three outs in the bonus time, and Alonso can do a lot of damage with those three outs.
Marcell Ozuna – Atlanta Braves
Ozuna has 23 home runs this season, which is fourth-best in the MLB. He has the fifth-best barrel percentage, and he is fourth in launch angle sweet-spot percentage. Ozuna has been one of the best overall hitters in baseball this season, and he is absolutely crushing the ball.
Ozuna would have 24 home runs this season if he played all his games at Globe Life Field. As mentioned, the ball tends to fly a little bit in Arlington. The All-Star DH has a chance to put up some big numbers this year at the derby, and I would not be shocked to see him do it.
Adolis Garcia – Texas Rangers
Adolis Garcia will represent the home team in this year’s Home Run Derby. The player performing in their home stadium always has a little bit extra juice. Garcia has 17 home runs this season, and his barrel percentage is in the 92nd percentile in the MLB. In fact, Garcia has a max exit velocity of over 116 miles per hour.
Garcia’s raw power is some of the best in the league. Even if he does not catch a barrel, Garcia has a chance to put the ball out of the park. Eight of Garcia’s 29 hits at home this season have left the park, and he hit 25 home runs at home in 2023. He is the home player in this derby, so keep an eye on him.
Alec Bohm – Philadelphia Phillies
Bohm might be the most unexpected participant in the Home Run Derby. He has hit just 11 home runs this season, so he is not someone you would expect to see step in the box. However, Bohm does have a better bat speed than Adolis Garcia. He has the potential to hit some home runs, but it will be interesting to see how he performs Monday night.
One thing to keep in mind with Bohm is his average launch angle is under 13 degrees. To hit home runs, you have to raise that launch angle. He may be a good hitter, but hard line drives and ground balls do not matter in the Home Run Derby.
Jose Ramirez – Cleveland Guardians
Jose Ramirez will be participating in his second Home Run Derby of his career. He lost in the first round in his first go around, but he did hit 17 long balls in that round. Ramirez has 23 total home runs this season, which is very good. His average exit velocity is under 90 miles per hour, though. He has a lot of pop in his bat, but it will be interesting to see how his exit velocity affects him. Of course, this is just batting practice, so it could be nothing.
Ramirez is a switch-hitter, so we will have to see which side of the plate he chooses to hit from. Last year, we saw Adley Rutschman hit from both sides of the plate. Ramirez has hit 15 home runs from the left side of the plate, but his slugging is much higher from the right side of the plate. It will depend on which side of the plate he chooses, but it will be fun to watch.
Teoscar Hernandez – Los Angeles Dodgers
Hernandez has 19 home runs this season, which is 13th-best in the MLB. Hernandez is also 35th in bat speed, 32nd in average exit velocity, and 14th in barrel percentage. Hernandez is another guy that might struggle to earn the extra time with long home runs, but he has the ability to hit a lot in a short amount of time.
Hernandez has been able to hit these home runs at Dodger Stadium. Dodger Stadium is not a hitter friendly park, so it is impressive that he has been able to hit 19 up to this point of the season. As mentioned multiple times, Globe Life Field is more hitter friendly when it comes to home runs. Do not be surprised if he finds a way to advance.
My pick to win the Home Run Derby
There is a lot of great competition in the Home Run Derby this year. My pick to win is going to Gunnar Henderson. He has crushed the ball this season, and he has a lot of power to show off. I personally like Gunnar Henderson to take home the crown.
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