Health Could Help the Mariners Snap a 24-Year Division Drought

Editor’s Note: This article was written before Bryan Woo exited with a potential pectoral injury on Friday night.

With nine games left to play, the Seattle Mariners find themselves in uncharted territory. They are in the middle of a heated race for the AL West, tied for first place with the Houston Astros and five games ahead of the third-place Texas Rangers.

There are a lot of reasons the Mariners are in this position. The offense has defied the narrative about hitting at T-Mobile Park to become a formidable force from top to bottom, the rotation has performed as advertised, and the back end of the bullpen has been one of the best in the league.

Player health has also been a difference maker for Seattle in its battle against the teams from Texas. Outside of Bryce Miller, who missed roughly three months between two separate elbow injury-induced stints, none of the major players on this team have missed significant time. Players like Trent Thornton, Victor Robles and Ryan Bliss who did suffer long-term injuries were sufficiently replaced in their absence by guys like Caleb Ferguson, Dominic Canzone and Cole Young.

This has not been the case for the Rangers and Astros, who have been beaten down by injuries left and right.

For the Astros, Yordan Alvarez missed nearly four months with a fractured hand (and he’s back on the IL again with a sprained ankle). Isaac Paredes suffered a hamstring injury in Seattle in mid-July. Josh Hader is out with a sprained shoulder, Jeremy Peña missed a month with a fractured rib, and the ‘Stros have played most of the year without Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr. or J.P. France in their rotation.

As for the Rangers, Corey Seager is currently out with an abdominal issue and no timetable for return; it’s his third IL stint of the year. Marcus Semien is out with a fractured foot. Nathan Eovaldi is back on the IL with a season-ending shoulder injury, and Adolis García has missed most of the last month with a strained ankle and quad.

It’s not just the volume of injuries happening to the Rangers and Astros, it’s the players they have been happening to.

TEAM	total IL stints	players injured	total days missed	$ per days missed
Astros	34	26	2,243	$43,248,482
Rangers	35	22	1,232	$49,091,611
Mariners	18	14	1,025	$9,996,002

From an offensive standpoint, the Mariners are one of only four teams in the majors to have at least four hitters with 600+ plate appearances this season. Those four (Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena and J.P. Crawford) have taken 45% of the team’s plate appearances this season, and they’ve combined for a 130 wRC+.

The Rangers are one of six teams that have yet to have a hitter reach the 600 PA mark, and the Astros only have two: Jose Altuve and Christian Walker.

On the mound, the Mariners have only gone to nine different starting pitchers all year, and seven different pitchers have started all but three of their games this season. It’s made their rotation one of the most stable in the sport. The Astros have relied on 15 different starters, and the Rangers 10.

In the absence of much of their expected rotation, the Astros have given 51 starts to Jason Alexander, Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter, guys who they did not anticipate giving that much time to at the start of the season. While some of them, like Alexander, have played a vital role down the stretch, those four have combined for a 4.67 ERA and 4.59 FIP in 267.2 innings as starters.

Since Corey Seager went down in late August, Josh Smith and Ezequiel Duran have combined for a 94 wRC+ at the shortstop position for the Rangers. That’s not a horrible number, but it’s a huge downgrade after losing your best hitter and the heartbeat of your team.

These are not things the Mariners have had to worry about.

All of the players the Mariners needed to rely on this year have not only delivered on their potential, but they’ve been available. When the team missed the playoffs in 2024, despite having the lowest rotation ERA in the sport, it was seen as a massive waste of an incredible season from the starters.

In an age in which health is never a guarantee for any individual, having two consecutive seasons with this level of health is remarkable. The quintet of Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo has covered over 80% of the team’s innings from the rotation.

The Mariners will travel to Houston for three games this weekend before finishing the season at home against the Rockies and Dodgers. If they are able to pull off their first division title since 2001, the health of the team will be a critical reason why.