Five Things the Reds Must Do to Become Contenders in 2025

September is one of the best months. Temperatures start to drop, football returns, and playoff races start to heat up. Except for the Reds, who have struggled to make September a vital month far too often. This campaign for the Reds was pretty much the standard of recent years.

More downs than ups leaving the team on the outside looking in.

However, this is not a team spiraling towards a sell off rebuild. Despite the teams record and underwhelming season, a few foundation pieces are cemented on this roster for years to come suggesting reasonable….hope.

Hope, noun, a feeling of expectation and desire for a certain thing to happen. A word Reds fans have an uncomfortable familiarity with. A word that leads many to roll their eyes after years of hope turning into disappointment. It’s time for some change.

1. Improve the Outfield

The time for “Wait and see” and trying to determine who is and isn’t a fit is over. The Reds cannot head into next season with an outfield full of mostly fourth outfielder level players.

Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild, Jake Fraley, plus the AAAA guys are not going to cut it.

I think Spencer Steer will continue to play several positions while still factoring into the outfield. Friedl in center, or left if a center fielder in acquired (not likely).

The need for a significant upgrade at one, if not both, corner spots is obvious. The days of dreaming on Will Benson need to be a thing in the past. He simply has not done enough to deserve a spot of this roster that should be focused on improving.

Striking out 40% of the time as a platoon player who plays mediocre defense just cannot get 300 at-bats again. He has options and can be organizational depth, but not a player to rely on.

Stuart Fairchild and/or Jake Fraley should be bench bats. Both play a platoon role, and fairly well, but you need to bring in a player(s) with a higher ceiling. I do think Fraley is a better player than he has shown but counting on a major bounce back is not a high percentage play.

Even if he does bounce back, injuries or underperformance elsewhere will help him find at bats.

These two players are not bad but easy to upgrade from. Doing so not only makes your starting lineup better, but moving them to more of a bench role makes your depth better. Trade, signing, I do not care. An upgrade is needed and whatever it takes to get it done needs to happen.

A dream fit for the Reds would be a power bat like Anthony Santander, giving the Reds a consistent source of power from a corner spot in their outfield.

If Santander is priced out of their market, there are big bats on the like Teoscar Hernandez, or Tyler O’Neill who would still move the needle in free agency.

2. Prove the Fans Worst Fear is not True

Spending just to spend is not something I subscribe to. I’d go as far as saying I don’t even have an issue with not spending much during certain years. Those years are seasons where your team expectations are not playoffs and young players need the development and experience.

2025 is not one of those years.

We know enough about the group of players on this team to determine what the specific needs should be.

We also learned enough about the depth, and the importance of it, to not trust as many AAAA types.

We know many fans love to talk about the Reds not spending or trading for big names. And you know what, they aren’t always wrong. But, the Reds have made some moves when the timing was right.

To me, the timing is perfect to make a splash this offseason.

You have the majority of your core for now and into the future either signed (Greene) or in pre-arbitration. None of the arbitration players are expected big bumps leaving the team with little to no reason to NOT spend. Here’s the outlook for 2025 contracts:

Pre-Arb: Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild, T.J. Friedl, Spencer Steer, Rece Hinds, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, others

Arb 1: Nick Lodolo, Alexis Diaz, Sam Moll

Arb 2: Jake Fraley

Arb 3: Santiago Espinal, Ty France

Signed/Options: Emilio Pagan (player $8M), Brent Suter (club $3.5M), Hunter Greene ($6.3M), Nick Martinez (player $12M), Jonathan India ($5M), Jeimer Candelario ($15M), Luke Maile (club $3.5M)

Essentially, you will never have a team with this much upside at this low of a cost. Each year that passes will more likely become more and more expensive. Right now, adding two to four year contracts is absolutely doable even without setting some new Reds payroll record.

The Reds have holes and need upgrades and are not in a financial situation where they cannot add. Now is not the time to be cute and see if you can improve a failed prospect or turn around a wavier wire guy. Show the fans you are serious or show the fans you aren’t. It is really that simple.

3. “The David Bell Situation”

Before we get started on this I just want to make one thing clear. I think a manager has the least impact of any “head coach” in sports. I’m not saying they don’t make a difference, but that difference is smaller than the impact other coaches make in their sport.

The question I keep coming back to with Bell is “what has he done to show you he is the right guy for the job?”

Sure, we do not see inside the clubhouse or hear the words he says to the players, but what we do see are his decisions and reactions.

Have there been more examples of the moves he makes or the strategies he implements working out or not working out?

No, the talent hasn’t always been high but this is year six without much to show for.

I’m ready for the Reds to move on. I don’t think it would be the type of move you end up regretting. Even if he isn’t the one most responsible for the teams record, I do think it is time for a new voice.

What will the Reds front office and ownership think? Time will tell.

I think it’s fair to say rolling with Bell again next year will be very difficult to defend if things go south. What’s the line they will draw during the season to fire Bell?

At what point does the evidence show enough to pull the plug if not now? Replacing the manager in season is never the preferred route. This offseason feels like a clean opportunity to move on.

4. Noelvi Marte Needs a Change

The disastrous season from Noelvi Marte might be the biggest player disappointment on the team.

His suspension, disappointing at-bats, and unacceptable defense have left a sour taste in fans mouths. I’m far from saying this is the level of player Marte will always be. He is 22 years old with less than a full season of at-bats under his belt. But, the plan cannot be the same for 2025.

The change I would most like to see is a change in position. Marte has a -8 run value and 11 errors at third base in about 400 innings this season. Lazy throws, poor fundamentals, and missed routine balls leaves me to believe his future is not at third.

Perhaps corner outfield? I’d be willing to try it but again, I want a proven upgrade there and not a project.

Maybe the change is in his performance. Improving defense is not impossible and something we do see from players from time to time. If he puts in the work this offseason there’s a chance he can still factor into the future at third.

Lastly, the change could be a trade.

While I’m in no rush to move Marte, I’d be open to doing so in the right kind of move.

If the return includes a proven upgrade in the outfield with years of control it could make sense. Other players on the roster have experience at third and someone like Sal Stewart could be an answer sooner than later.

5. Fewer “What If’s”

The Reds team life cycle is no longer in the “seeing what you have” phase. Two years of that has given the Reds enough answers and shown where the needs are. Address those issues, improve the team, and come into 2025 with fewer questions.

Every team, no matter how good, will have a few “what if x-y-z takes a leap” or “what if x-y-z cuts down his walk rate” and so on. I don’t have any issue with that and understand there will be some unknowns, I simply want fewer.

Most of what I have highlighted in this piece covers those concerns but more still exists.

What if Marte doesn’t improve? What’s the plan at back up catcher? If CES doesn’t develop? Do you have enough high leverage arms? And so on.

Again, we have enough of a sample size to have at least a reasonable expectation from the younger players. The team has a much better – and clearer – understanding of their needs and now it is up to the front office to address them.

Conclusion

The Reds have needs but maybe not as many as we think. The difference in a playoff season next year and a repeat of this year is the level of players they bring in.

Last season, the Kansas City Royals finished at the bottom of the AL Central, but they saw a breakout performance from their young shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. In the offseason, the Royals worked on a long-term extension for Witt, and then poured money into their roster through free agency.

Looking back at the moves they made, the Royals did not sign a single player to a deal that paid them $20 million or more in 2024, yet the signings they made have put them over the top and they are now in a pennant race a year later.

The Reds have the franchise shortstop in place with Elly De La Cruz. Whether they extend him or not is a conversation for another day, but for now, the Reds show be looking capitalize on this window when he is at his athletic prime.

As hard as it might be to buy in right now, I do think the path to a better team is at least clear. Now, the question is will the front office and ownership do what is necessary and acquire the right players to ensure 2025 is not a repeat yet again.