Danny Jansen Can Have a Bounce-Back Year in Tampa Bay

Danny Jansen‘s career has been anything but conventional. Entering year eight of his career, Jansen has yet to solidify himself as a full-time starting catcher, despite consistently posting above-average offensive numbers and grading reasonably well defensively.

Because he was in a timeshare in Toronto with Alejandro Kirk and put up promising numbers with the Blue Jays, Jansen’s name was a popular one in trade talks last offseason as he entered his final year under team control.

A ho-hum season eventually led to him being moved to Boston at the trade deadline, where he struggled to a .623 OPS before hitting the opening market this past winter.

Given the circumstances, Jansen settled for a one-year, $8 million deal with the Rays, who desperately needed a catcher with offensive upside to pair with Ben Rortvedt.

Although this signing did not get a ton of buzz, I think it could be one of, if not the best bang for your buck signings of the offseason.

Jansen’s Fit in Tampa Bay

You know how Cleveland Browns fans have the jerseys with all their quarterbacks’ names on the back emphasizing their struggle to find “the guy”? Well, Tampa’s catching situation has not been much different.

For years, they’ve cycled through mediocre production without a true standout. Outside of Mike Zunino standing on his head in 2021, they haven’t had a reliable offensive catcher. That could change this year.

As it currently stands, Tampa has three catchers on their 40-man roster: Jansen, Rortvedt, and Logan Driscoll. The Opening Day roster is projected to include Jansen — a righty bat — and Rortvedt — a lefty bat who’s known for his defense, not his career .574 OPS.

Jansen will likely have a chance to breach the 100 game mark for only the second time in his career, as he’s now in line to have the lion’s share of playing time. Rortvedt will still catch plenty, but it will not be as drastic of a split as what Jansen experienced in Toronto.

Jansen will also likely fit into the middle of the order, currently projected to bat fifth behind Josh Lowe, according to RosterResource. That would be a significant upgrade from Jansen’s previous roles in Toronto and Boston, where he only recorded over 300 plate appearances in the seventh, eighth, and ninth spots in the order.

Slotting higher in the lineup will not only give Jansen the opportunity for more at-bats, but it will also put him in position to hit behind the best players in the Rays’ lineup. In theory, this will lead to more run producing opportunities and give him a better chance at having a greater offensive impact across the board.

Of course, Jansen will have to prove that he is worthy of more playing time and earn a spot that is higher in the batting order. After a poor 2024, a rebound of sorts is needed, but I think he has exactly what it takes to bounce back in 2025.

Why Jansen Can Bounce Back

The intrigue in Jansen’s bat has never been about hitting for average, but rather for power. Fans and analyst taking small sample sizes and extrapolating those stats over 162 games has been going on forever, and Jansen is a darling for those discussions.

From 2021-’23, Jansen logged between 205 and 301 plate appearances in each of those three seasons, averaging just over 14 home runs a year during that stretch. Combine that with an average ISO of .250 over that sample size, and you can see why the idea of Jansen as a full-time player is exciting.

Well, 2024 did not help his case. After getting off to a hot start, posting a 1.002 OPS in March/April and an .871 OPS in May, Jansen failed to post an OPS over .600 the rest of the way.

He did not impact the ball nearly as much, highlighted by his average exit velocity that dropped to a career-low 86.6 mph, with his other batted ball metrics following suit.

Why the power disappeared is still unknown. A wrist injury from last spring could have crept back up, but either way, he was a different player. The good news is Jansen still maintained an elite walk rate (12.3%) and a very strong strikeout rate (18.8%) which should translate year to year, as he doesn’t chase or swing-and-miss at high levels.

Although Jansen does not post high-end exit velocities, his strong plate discipline, lack of swing-and-miss, and pull-heavy approach might just work. Need convincing? Look no further than how he compares to Isaac Paredes, who famously wore out the left field seats of Tropicana Field.

I’m not saying Jansen will suddenly match the production Paredes had in Tampa, but they have a similar profile: a pull-heavy approach, lower exit velocities, low strikeout totals, and a high walk rate. You get the picture.

Tampa has capitalized on this profile before, and I would not be surprised if they do so again.

I must note that the Rays will be playing their home games at George Steinbrenner Field, which is 318 ft down the left field line compared to 315 ft in Tropicana Field. However, both are more favorable than the Rogers Center, which checks in at 328 ft down the left field line.

A fresh start, in a favorable home ballpark for hitters, batting higher in the lineup, with one of the best organizations is an equation I like for Jansen.

Final Thoughts

Catchers who can hit are very hard to find, and the Rays get to take a flier on one for only $8 million in 2025.

The production was too good for three straight years, and at least part of 2024, for me to write off Jansen. We all know if there’s an origination that can get the most out of a player, it’s Tampa Bay.

I’m willing to bet something was off with Jansen for the majority of 2024. His batted ball metrics dropped too much compared to prior years to not raise an eyebrow. An opportunity to reset and put up great numbers with a new ball club, while also having the potential to hit the open market again at age 30 next offseason, could lead to a big payday.