Can Daniel Palencia Hold Down the Closer’s Role in Chicago?

What a year it has been for the Chicago Cubs. They have the second-best record in the NL, they’re leading the NL Central, and their major offseason addition, Kyle Tucker, is pacing for his best season to date. Without a doubt, the Cubs are one of the best teams in baseball.

However, they do come with their flaws, or better yet, questions. Sure, the bench could use some help, and another lefty bat in the lineup couldn’t hurt, but what about the team’s closer? Closer might be a term that is starting to become outdated in some sense, but a high-leverage reliever (as the kids say) is still crucial for a postseason run.

Tucker wasn’t the only Astros player to join the Cubs over the winter. World Series winner Ryan Pressly, gray beard and all, came to the Windy City in hopes of closing out games for the Cubs.

While Pressly has lost the closer’s role, he’s actually been effective in his outings. We all remember the nine-run, no-outs recorded outing, but outside of that, he’s only allowed three earned runs all season.

After Pressly’s role changed, the Cubs turned to a couple of young arms in the highest leverage spots. First, Porter Hodge was given a few opportunities, but injury put him on the shelf. Next was Daniel Palencia, whom the Cubs acquired in 2021 for Andrew Chafin. So far, so good.

Stats updated prior to games on June 12.

Daniel Palencia’s Success

The average baseball fan probably had no idea who Daniel Palencia was entering 2025. The 25-year-old saw action in 37 games across the past two seasons with the Cubs, posting mediocre numbers while struggling to throw strikes. However, this season has been a different story.

Through 23 innings, Palencia has posted a 1.96 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 9.32 K/9, and 3.52 BB/9. After blowing his first save opportunity, Palencia converted his next five, allowing just one hit, and looked to be the answer for the Cubs in the ninth inning.

If you aren’t familiar with Palencia, he’s a righty that throws up to five different pitches but mostly relies on a four-seamer and slider to get batters out. His fastball sits at 99 mph with plus arm-side run, making it difficult for batters to square up. In fact, batters have only a 3.5% barrel rate against Palencia, so even when they hit it hard, it doesn’t cause much damage.

Combine his heat with an 88-mph slider with a 26.8% whiff rate, and you can see why he can be effective.

Palencia has found most of his success by locating his fastball high at the top of the zone. Coming in at 100 mph with 16 inches of IVB, batters often swing through the pitch or struggle to drive his velocity, making his plan of attack all the more successful.

Above is a graphic from our friends at Baseball Savant showing Palencia’s opponents’ swing and miss by location. Fastballs high and breaking balls lower in the zone has been his recipe. So far, it has worked, and his 26.7% strikeout rate will absolutely play in high-leverage situations.

However, Palencia isn’t perfect. While he has the stuff to be effective, he still misses the zone at a high rate and allows plenty of contact. If his high fastball misses its spot, it can quickly become a meatball to opponents.

It’s also worth noting that Palencia’s five saves have come against the Marlins, Reds, and Rockies. More than half of his outings have come against teams that are .500 or worse, although he’s handled better teams as well. All this to say, we are still working with a relatively small sample that has not been bulletproof.

Will the Cubs Stick with Palencia?

Although I like Palencia and what he brings to the Cubs, I’m not sold on him getting the keys to the ninth without any questions. Giving him plenty of run right now is the right plan, though. The Cubs will see what he can do for the next month or so, gain more information, and head into the deadline feeling like they have a clearer picture of what they have and what they need.

Even with Pressly and Hodge as fall-back options, I think the Cubs will look to add a high-leverage reliever. Chicago has invested a lot of resources in this team, and I do not see them relying on Palencia and his limited success as a young pitcher come October. Sure, that opinion can change with time, but how comfortable are you with him for the playoffs?

Keep in mind the Cubs have a very good farm system with a number of players knocking on the door for a call-up. When push comes to shove and a high-end reliever is available in late July, the Cubs have the pieces to acquire that player and make their bullpen better.

Adding a more proven reliever does not automatically mean Palencia is out, but they would then have another option. Hopefully, one with a track record they are more comfortable with.

It would be a move that not only improves the late innings but gives Chicago insurance in case of injury. A move that solidifies one of the more unsure spots on this roster and makes the Cubs even more legitimate as a World Series contender.

We both know the Cubs are not a team that will leave much to chance. Going out and acquiring talent at the deadline is something we have seen them do in the past, and with the farm system to do so, and lesser needs in other areas, I don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t add another arm to this bullpen.