Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Carlos Estévez

Relief pitcher is one of the more populated positions on the free agent market this winter, with big-time names like Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman grabbing headlines as we sit in the heart of the offseason.

But there are certainly intriguing names to be sought after beyond the “big two” of Scott and Hoffman, including right-hander Carlos Estévez.

Estévez is coming off a year split between the Los Angeles Angels and the Philadelphia Phillies, after being traded to the City of Brotherly Love at the MLB trade deadline in July.

In 55.0 innings across 54 appearances in 2024, the soon-to-be 32-year-old crafted his best year in the bigs, posting career bests in ERA (2.45), FIP (3.24), WHIP (0.91) and AVG against (.191). He also managed to rack up 26 saves in the process.

In terms of stringing successful seasons together, while 2024 might have been his most successful season, it wasn’t a complete anomaly. This was the third straight season that Estévez posted a sub-4.00 ERA, his second straight season of posting a sub-4.00 FIP and the second season in his past three in which he’s sported a sub-1.20 WHIP and a sub.-.210 AVG against.

From an underlying metrics standpoint, there are definitely some pros and cons to Estévez.

He had great expected numbers this past season, ranking in the top quarter of league arms with an 84th-percentile xERA and a 76th-percentile xBA. He also has a great fastball which sat in the 89th percentile in velocity at 96.8 mph in 2024. And he limited baserunners well this season, sitting in the 86th percentile in BB%.

In terms of how his pitches performed in 2024, opposing batters hit under .200 and slugged under .400 against all three of his pitches (four-seam fastball, slider, changeup).

But then there are the cons. Estévez does not limit hard contact well, as he’s sat below the 20th percentile in both hard-hit rate and AVG exit velocity in back-to-back seasons.

He was also mediocre when it came to getting hitters to swing and miss on his offerings this past year, sitting in the 54th percentile in K-rate, the 50th percentile in whiff rate and just the eighth percentile in chase rate.

From a pitch mix standpoint, while 2024 may’ve been kind to him, he’s just a year removed from all three of his pitches seeing an AVG against of .240 or higher. Two of them saw a SLG above .400 in 2023.

Despite his flaws, there is definitely a lot to like about this veteran righty with closing experience that will make him appealing to many this winter.

While he could potentially be a fit for some of the top contenders in need of bullpen help, the two possible scenarios I see for Estévez in 2025 are: (1) landing with a lower-end contender looking for experienced relief help for the back end of the ‘pen or (2) signing with a smaller-market team looking to field a more competitive active roster and a higher payroll.

So, with all that in mind, here are some of the top potential landing spots for Carlos Estévez this winter.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are in dire need of relief help after a season in which their bullpen ranked 29th in MLB in ERA, 30th in FIP, 24th in WHIP and 23rd in AVG against.

They’ve already addressed the bullpen a bit by bringing back veteran Yimi García during the Winter Meetings on a two-year deal, but they still lack that out-and-out consistent closer, with the only presumable locks in the back end of the bullpen being García, Chad Green and Erik Swanson.

Estévez will provide the Blue Jays with that recent closing experience, having racked up 57 saves in the last two seasons.

In an interview with MLB insider Jon Morosi at the GM Meetings in November, GM Ross Atkins said improving the bullpen is “the clear area of opportunity” for the Jays this winter. And while Toronto certainly has the financial means to go out and get a Scott or a Hoffman, they haven’t always had the best luck signing the top available free agents.

After their primary closing option for the past four seasons, Jordan Romano, signed with the Phillies (the Blue Jays non-tendered him in November), Estévez would symbolize a way to make a splash on the closing market while not necessarily breaking the bank.

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs are another team looking to contend in 2025 and could do with some upgrades in the bullpen.

They were a middle-of-the-pack ‘pen in 2024, ranking 12th in ERA, 17th in FIP, 19th in WHIP and 14th in AVG against.

Chicago is working with some intriguing pieces already in Porter Hodge, who was excellent with a sub-2.00 ERA in his rookie season, and Tyson Miller, who had a breakout campaign last year sporting a sub-3.00 ERA.

And while other names like Nate Pearson, Keegan Thompson the newly acquired Eli Morgan are good options to firmly stick in the middle of the bullpen and possibly contend for a setup role, the Cubs currently lack that outright closing option for 2025.

Estévez can compete to fill that role while also simultaneously providing some protection from any regression that the current top five in the bullpen might face in 2025, especially Hodge and Miller, who each only have one good year at the MLB level under their belt.

Kansas City Royals

Like the Cubs, the Royals have a great foundation within their bullpen, one which GM J.J. Picollo said he feels “very good about” at the GM Meetings last month.

And he’s not wrong. Lucas Erceg looks like the closer of the future, Hunter Harvey has the makings to be a strong setup man, and they received solid contributions in 2024 from arms like John Schreiber and Sam Long.

But at the end of the day, the Royals bullpen ranked 20th in ERA, 23rd in WHIP and 25th in AVG against in 2024. While they did improve after the acquisitions of Erceg and Harvey at the trade deadline, ranking 14th in ERA, eighth in WHIP and tied for 12th in AVG against from July 31 onwards, there’s definitely still room for improvement.

Estévez would provide them with some veteran closing protection for a guy like Erceg who is still young in his career as a big league closer. He would also provide them with a way to form a formidable setup crew in the back end to come closer to mirroring some of the premier bullpens in baseball.

Kansas City also relied upon the strength of its rotation in 2024. While the Royals certainly seem poised to add to their rotation after trading Brady Singer to the Cincinnati Reds earlier this winter, as it stands right now, there is some ambiguity about what their rotation will look like beyond the big three of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.

That means they may need to lean on their bullpen more heavily in 2025.

Pair that with the fact that one of their better sub-3.00 ERA relievers from 2024, Kris Bubic, is reportedly being shifted back the rotation, and suddenly Estévez looks more valuable than ever to a team like Kansas City.

Pittsburgh Pirates

After a year in which the Pittsburgh Pirates were in a competitive position for long enough that they were conservative buyers at the 2024 trade deadline, the window of postseason contention seems to be opening up in the Steel City.

While their rotation looks to be in good shape for the future, led by 2024 NL Rookie of the Year winner and Cy Young finalist Paul Skenes, their bullpen could do with some bolstering.

In 2024, their bullpen finished 27th in MLB in ERA, 28th in WHIP and tied for 22nd in AVG against.

The Pirates are in need of a replacement for Aroldis Chapman, who signed with the Boston Red Sox earlier this winter. Chapman played a huge role for the Bucs in 2024, supporting closer David Bednar amidst a down year in which he posted a 5.77 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.

Estévez can provide the stability this bullpen needs, while also providing an adequate replacement for Chapman to support Bednar, in case the former All-Star’s down year in 2024 was not simply a fluke.

The Athletics

Then there’s the Athletics, who have been busy since their move away from Oakland.

They signed Luis Severino to a club record deal earlier this month and have been linked to other free agents as well. At the end of the day, the Athletics need to spend in order to avoid a potential grievance from the MLBPA.

One of the easiest ways to do this is to invest in veteran bullpen pieces, like Estévez.

The A’s bullpen was a mid-tier unit in 2024, sitting 13th in ERA, tied for 19th in WHIP and tied for 12th in AVG against, so bringing Estévez aboard would certainly provide the means to improve upon those numbers.

While the presence of young fireball closer Mason Miller means the A’s don’t have to look for a closing option, acquiring a veteran closer like Estévez would provide suitable back-end support for Miller while simultaneously providing a necessary addition to their payroll. His closer reputation will likely earn him a higher AAV than your average run-of-the-mill reliever could command.

Honorable Mention: Washington Nationals

I don’t feel as confident in Estévez to the Nationals as I do with the other teams on this list, especially after they non-tendered Kyle Finnegan this offseason.

Estévez is a better reliever than Finnegan in my opinion. But there are enough concerns with his arm to make me think the Nationals might steer clear of paying more for him than they would’ve paid to keep Finnegan.

But again, Estévez would be an upgrade over Finnegan. And after a year in which the Nationals looked as competitive as they’ve been since winning the World Series in 2019 – and with a promising young core taking shape at the big league level – it wouldn’t be a shock to see Washington add some capable closing talent to bolster the bullpen.