26 Predictions for the 2026 Boston Red Sox

After a tumultuous and unexpected offseason, Boston Red Sox baseball officially returned on Thursday, with ace Garrett Crochet leading the way to victory against the Cincinnati Reds.

Here are 26 predictions for what should be a fascinating and competitive 2026 Red Sox team.

1. The Red Sox will send five players to the All-Star Game: Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman and Jarren Duran. 

After Kenley Jansen was the lone Red Sox representative in the 2023 All-Star game, the team has sent players to the mid-summer classic in each of the last two seasons. This year, I predict that number will rise to five for the first time since 2021.

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Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Crochet feel like locks for their second straight season, considering they were arguably the two best players at their positions last season. Roman Anthony also feels like a sure bet if he comes anywhere close to repeating the 3.1 bWAR he posted in 70 games as a rookie.

​Ceddanne Rafaela will finally get his due this season, as he was snubbed last year despite having the second-highest bWAR among American League outfielders at the All-Star break.

​Without having to shuffle between center field and second base, Rafaela will rack up even more eye-popping defensive numbers, and another strong first-half at the plate will get him his due, albeit as a reserve to Julio Rodriguez.

​The boldest of these predictions is Jarren Duran, but there is a clear path for him to earn his second All-Star appearance. While Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber are shoo-ins in the National League, the American League doesn’t really have that many standouts as DH, as evidenced by Ryan O’Hearn earning the All-Star start last season.

​If Duran is able to carry over his strong spring training and World Baseball Classic performance, particularly against left-handed pitching, he should earn one of the two DH spots alongside Yordan Alvarez.

​2. The Red Sox home run derby drought will end this year.

It’s been 15 years since the Red Sox were last represented in the Home Run Derby (2011 Adrian Gonzalez was a different animal), but that drought will end this year.

​From Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Bobby Witt Jr. to Gunnar Henderson, many of the game’s best young hitters have been recruited for the event despite middling mid-season home run derby numbers.

​Anthony’s prospect status, rookie year performance and World Baseball Classic heroics have put him squarely on the national radar, and I think MLB would love to have him take part in the derby.

3. ​Isiah Kiner-Falefa gets DFA’d in the first half of the season…

I never quite understood the Isaiah Kiner-Falefa signing, as he doesn’t add much at this stage of his career besides leadership, passable defense, and a whole lot of sub-optimal contact. I don’t see a place for him on the roster once  Romy Gonzalez comes back from shoulder surgery, hopefully sometime around the beginning of June.

​4. …with Masataka Yoshida following soon after.

Mastaka Yoshida has proven he can be an above-average hitter when he is healthy and gets regular at-bats, but there is no pathway to him getting the latter without an injury to a starting outfielder.

​I predict the Red Sox will make an honest effort to work him into the outfield mix but will eventually acknowledge the sunk cost and replace him with someone who can make a more diverse contribution to the big-league squad off the bench.

5. Triston Casas hits at least 10 home runs at the MLB level, all of which come after June 1.

One of the beneficiaries of the Yoshida departure will be the much-maligned Triston Casas, who will remain in Fort Myers when the season begins as he continues to rehab the ruptured patellar tendon he suffered last May.

​It may be easy to forget about Casas once the season begins, but I remain confident that he will make an impact at the major-league level. His bat is too important to a team that doesn’t have enough reliable sources of power, and the eventual departure of Yoshida will open up at-bats for him at DH.

6. Caleb Durbin hits fewer than 10 home runs, but becomes a fan-favorite anyway.

The common thought might be that new third baseman Caleb Durbin will see his home run total of 11 rise in his second MLB season and play 81 games in front of the Green Monster.

​It is worth noting, however, that Durbin’s expected home run total at Fenway Park last season was just five, indicating that the Big Green Wall may turn his fly balls into doubles rather than home runs.

​Despite this, Red Sox fans will quickly learn to love Durbin, who will remind them of another undersized infielder of yesteryear with his defense, elite bat-to-ball skills and dirtdog style of play.

7. Willson Contreras sets a new career-high in home runs and games played.

Finally freed from the burden of the tools of ignorance, Willson Contreras will have a better chance of staying clear of the nagging injuries that have plagued him throughout his career, allowing him to exceed his previous career high of 138 games played.

Contreras’ 83rd percentile hard-hit percentage and 86th percentile barrel percentage make him much better suited to take advantage of the Monster than Durbin, especially if he can continue to build on his career-high 19.8% pull-air percentage from last year.

​He may not get to 30, but he should settle in comfortably to the 25-28 range.

8. The combination of Caleb Durbin/Willson Contreras produces more bWAR than Alex Bregman/Rafael Devers.

Wow, what a random quartet of players I chose here!

​Look, this is not to say that Durbin and Contreras will be able to replace the offensive production of Alex Bregman and Rafael Devers. What I do believe, however, is that Contreras will be able to make up the difference with his massive defensive advantage over Devers, and Durbin will be able to keep pace with Bregman due to his edge on the basepaths.

​9. Everybody comes out happy in the Caleb Durbin-Kyle Harrison trade.

Too often, we like to declare a “winner” in a mutually beneficial deal, but I truly believe this winter’s six-player swap between the Red Sox and Brewers will work out for everybody.

​For the Red Sox, they will get exactly what they hoped for out of Durbin as an above-average starter at third base, as well as a solid platoon bat in Andruw Monasterio.

​The Brewers, meanwhile, have already shown signs this spring of turning Kyle Harrison into their latest pitching success story, who will follow in the footsteps of Quinn Priester of Red Sox cast-off turned Brewers rotation anchor.

It also shouldn’t come as a surprise if Shane Drohan, who posted a 2.27 ERA and a 12.8 K/9 in Worcester last season, carved out a role for himself in the Brewers bullpen.

​Simply put, this was always a trade that made a lot of sense for both sides, and all four of these players will help their new team far more than they could have helped their old one.

​10. The Red Sox will finish with five home players with at least 20 home runs.

There was a lot of chatter in Red Sox Nation about the ZIPS Projection system not having a single player projected for over 20 home runs.

​However, using the FOX projection system, I forecast five players with over 20 longballs: four from the top five of Anthony, Story, Duran, Contreras, and Abreu, and one surprise from the bottom half of the order.

​Both Carlos Narvaez and Rafaela hit at least 15 home runs last season, and it is completely reasonable to believe that they can make the jump to 20 in their second and third full seasons, respectively, if they build on their subpar pull-air percentage.

​The biggest wild card in this is Marcelo Mayer, who has to prove he can both stay on the field and cut down on his 30% strikeout rate but certainly has the raw power to top 20 homers, as evident by his 51.7% hard-hit rate.

While the Red Sox could have as many as eight guys approach 20 homers, only one will exceed 30. Having long struggled to catch up to fastballs both hard and high, Abreu took tangible results to shorten his swing this offseason, which was on full display with his go-ahead home run against Venezuela in the WBC.

With a combination of exit velocity and launch angle surpassed only by Cal Raleigh, there is no reason that Abreu can’t surpass the 30 home-run mark, especially considering he will be receiving more at-bats against left-handed pitching.

11. The starting outfield will combine for over 5.0 bWAR.

This isn’t as bold as it may appear at first glance. If you prorate Anthony’s 3.1 bWAR in 71 games and Abreu’s 3.2 in 112 over a full season and add in Rafaela’s 4.7, you come in right at that 15.0 benchmark.

​And even if one of the trio misses time with injury, Duran can slide over from DH and pick up the slack, as he accumulated 4.7 bWAR himself despite playing below-average defense in left field.

​12. Marcelo Mayer wins a Gold Glove at second base.

While Mayer is far from a finished product at the plate, his defense is as polished and smooth as you’ll see from a young player. He accumulated +2 Outs Above Average filling in for Alex Bregman at third base last year before seamlessly transitioning over to second and grabbing another +1 there.

​Health permitting, the door is wide open for Mayer to immediately become the best defensive second baseman in the American League, especially with last year’s Gold Glove winner Marcus Semien getting traded to the Mets this offseason.

​13. The Red Sox’s big deal at the deadline is for bullpen help…

For all the talk about the lack of power in the Red Sox, my biggest concern surrounds the bullpen depth behind Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman. Justin Slaten throws a ton of strikes but misses fewer bats than you would like from a late-inning reliever, while also missing a large chunk of each of his first two MLB seasons.

​Greg Weissert has a similar issue, having struck out just 22.1% and 20.5% in each of his two seasons, while Zack Kelly missed so few bats during spring training that he was surprisingly sent to Worcester to begin the season.

​The left-handed relief mix is even more precarious. Jovani Moran pitched just two big-league innings last season, and while he has displayed improved velocity in both camp and the World Baseball Classic, his meltdown on the last day of spring training didn’t exactly inspire confidence headed into opening day.

​The recent addition of Danny Coloumbe adds another established arm to the equation, albeit one that is 36 years old, rarely exceeds 90 mph on the radar gun, and saw his ERA jump four runs after a midseason trade to the Rangers.

​Barring a turn-back-the-clock performance by Tommy Kahnle or an unexpected breakout from Rule 5 pick Ryan Watson, the Red Sox are going to be looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline.

​Fortunately, middle relievers are usually in pretty high supply among selling teams, and while it is a foolish exercise to project who might be available for trade in four months, I am keeping a close eye on the Rays combo of Garrett Cleavinger and Griffin Jax.

14. …but Payton Tolle ends up making the biggest second-half impact.

Despite putting together a strong spring training, including a terrific 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, the Red Sox chose Payton Tolle back down to Triple-A to continue to flesh out and fine-tune his delivery.

​It was the right decision, as cramming him into a relief role right out of the gate would be a disservice to his development towards his potential frontline starter-ceiling.

​Yet with the Red Sox possessing a surplus of viable starting pitching options and lacking high-upside bullpen options, Tolle’s best chance to contribute to the big-league club this season may still come as a reliever.

​As the games become more important and Tolle continues to overwhelm Triple-A hitters, I expect the Red Sox to pivot him and his triple-digit fastball to a relief role and use him as a multi-inning matchup nightmare in the mold of Garrett Whitlock.

15. Speaking of Tolle, Anthony Eyanson becomes this year’s meteoric rising pitcher.

It appears the Red Sox may have done it again.

​Read that one more time. This is a guy who averaged 93.1 in college touching 100 in his first professional spring training. It would be almost hard to believe if we didn’t see the same thing last year with Tolle, who went from sitting in the low-90s in college to touching triple-digits in his September debut.

​While one inning in a spring breakout game won’t make or break a prospect, Eyanson was selected in the third round of last year’s draft as a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect, displaying a solid control profile and an advanced feel for spin.

​If he is able to sustain this velocity boost throughout the season, he will dramatically raise both his ceiling and his floor and could rise quickly through the system.

​16. Justin Gonzales becomes the club’s top position player prospect.

We saw a glimpse of what this six-foot-six-inch monster could eventually become this spring when he made waves with a 117-mph single, which would have ranked as the 12th-hardest hit ball in the majors last year.

​With elite raw power and a surprisingly tolerable strikeout rate, Gonzales has a chance to develop into a truly special hitter if he can cut down on his 57% ground ball rate, the 11th-highest mark in the minor leagues last season.

​Right now, Gonzales slots in as MLB Pipeline’s second-ranked position player prospect in the Red Sox system, trailing only shortstop Franklin Arias. Yet while Arias receives 60-grades on both his hit and fielding tools, his exit velocities are largely underwhelming, leading to him slashing just .265/.329/.380 in 83 games at High-A Greenville.

​If Arias has another middling offensive season in Double-A, the door will be opened for Justin Gonzales to take over the mantle at the organization’s highest-ranked position player prospect.

17. Early finishes third in rookie of the year voting…

Originally projected to begin the season in Worcester, Connelly Early forced his way into the conversation with a dominant spring training. Displaying another small bump in velocity, Early posted a 1.59 ERA in four spring starts, capped off by 5 shutout innings against most of the Yankees starters, allowing just one hit and striking out 7.

​Simply put, Early has all the tools and polish to step right into a big-league rotation and be an above-average starter from the outset.

The competition for American League Rookie of the Year will be fierce, especially with top prospect Kevin McGonigle making the Tigers’ Opening Day roster, but an injury to Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yeseavage could allow Early to sneak into the top three behind McGonigle and Orioles slugger Samuel Basallo.

​18. …and gets rewarded with a contract extension.

​You didn’t really think that Craig Breslow would go an entire season without a contract extension, did you?

​After locking up a combined five young players over his first two full seasons, Breslow will turn his attention to Early once the crafty lefty proves he can handle himself in a big-league rotation.

​The inherent risk of young pitchers means there are far fewer examples of early-career extensions than with position players, but something resembling Brayan Bello’s six-year, $55 million deal with perhaps an extra year or two tacked on could make a lot of sense.

​19. The Red Sox finish second in MLB in rotation ERA.

​Looking back, it’s pretty surprising that the Red Sox finished fifth in rotation ERA in 2025, given that they gave a combined 41 starts to Walker Buehler (5.45 ERA), Richard Fitts (5.00) and Tanner Houck (8.04).

​With a stronger collection of back-end options, the Red Sox should be able to shave a couple points off that 3.70 mark, though they won’t quite be able to match the Mariners quintet of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo.

20.  The Red Sox’s worst stretch will come at the end of June.

​Each of the last three seasons has followed a similar pattern for the Red Sox: A fairly strong April performance, a drop-off in May, and a revival in June and July to thrust them back into playoff contention.

This year, however, the Red Sox will flip the script. As opposed to recent pre-season injuries to Chris Sale in 2022, Trevor Story in 2023 and Lucas Giolito in 2024, the Red Sox enter the season almost remarkably healthy, which could set the stage for their first strong spring since 2021.

​Of course, no team in baseball has ever gone through an entire season without a cold spell, and the end of June sets up perfectly for mass panic throughout Red Sox nation.

​Seven games against the Yankees and Blue Jays bookend a six-game road trip to Seattle and Coors Field, all without a single off-day. Do not be surprised if the Red Sox go 5-8 or even 4-9 in this stretch, although they will fortunately have a prime opportunity to right the ship with their next nine games coming against the Nationals, Angels and White Sox.

​21. Sonny Gray outproduces Ranger Suárez in their Red Sox debuts.

​It was a tale of two springs for the Red Sox’s marquee starting pitcher additions. While Ranger Suarez got hit around in both spring training and the World Baseball Classic, Sonny Gray finished his spring tune-up on a high note, striking out nine and walking none in six superb innings against the Pirates last Sunday.

​Obviously, spring training stats aren’t indicative of regular season success, especially for two veterans who are far more concerned with tightening up their arsenal and building up stamina than actual results, but it does indicate why I believe Gray will have the slightly better season of the two.

​While Suarez is a well-established soft-contact master, Gray has continued to be one game’s best strikeout artists even into his mid-thirties, fanning over 200 batters in each of the last two seasons largely on the strength of his wipeout sweeper.

​Gray’s ability to generate whiffs makes him less dependent on BABIP luck than Suarez, and with a much stronger track record of health and inning-eating ability, he is simply a safer bet to slot in behind Crochet as the Red Sox’s second-best starter.

22. The Lobstah Poutine is a big whiff.

​As one of our nation’s foremost lobster enthusiasts, I’m telling you this is a bad idea. I mean, just think of the smell of this thing on a hot summer day at a packed Fenway Park.

​Lobster is meant for the beach, not for the ballpark, especially if you’re going to be adding clam chowder in the equation. I understand this decision less than the Dustin May trade, and I think it’s going to get a quicker hook than Brayan Bello in Game 2 of the Wild Card series.

​23. Braiden Ward makes a September impact.

​For those who remember the days of Dave Roberts and Quentin Berry, it was hard not to see the potential of Braiden Ward, who set the new spring training record with 19 stolen bases.

​The crowded outfield mix will keep him in Triple-A for most of the season, but he will have the opportunity to make his mark when the rosters expand, taking over the pinch-running once held by David Hamilton.

24. The Red Sox will win 92 games and win their first playoff series since 2021.

​Through all ups and downs and emotional twists of the offseason, the Red Sox enter the season with a better roster on paper than last year. The lineup is deeper (albeit less powerful), the defense should be elite, and the rotation behind Crochet is exponentially better.

​Of course, games are played on the field, not the spreadsheet, but the amount of depth the Red Sox have assembled, particularly on the pitching side, gives them an extremely high floor.

​The biggest thing holding them back is just the strength of the American League East, which could easily have four playoff teams.

​I think the Yankees’ top-end talent gives them a slight edge over the Red Sox, but injuries to Anthony Santander, Trey Yeseavage and Shane Bieber and the loss of Bo Bichette could cause the defending American League champion Blue Jays to slip just a bit.

25. We get a signature postseason Roman Anthony moment (Roment).

​As if his titanic upper-deck home run and bat flip in Yankee Stadium last year weren’t evidence enough, Anthony’s performance in the World Baseball Classic proved once again he can handle the big moment.

​If the Red Sox are going to win a postseason series as I project, they are going to need their best player to come through. My crystal ball forecasts a three-run shot deep into the crisp autumn Fenway night off Dylan Cease.

26. The postseason run ends at the hands of the Mariners’ pitching staff.

​While I am pretty high on the Red Sox overall roster, the Mariners simply have more top-end starting pitching and a more powerful lineup.

​They will put up a good fight, but with the Mariners having home-field advantage and Crochet only able to pitch once in the series, Seattle will close out the series in five in front of their home fans.