The Astros Suddenly Have the Arms to Make a Deep Run

The Houston Astros look poised to pull off one of the biggest turnarounds of the 2024 season.

It’s no secret that the Astros had a miserable start to the current campaign. Nearly two and a half months into the season, on June 18, the Astros found themselves 10.0 games back from the Seattle Mariners for the top spot in the AL West and 7.5 games back of a Wild Card position. At that time, they had already been without then-AL MVP candidate Kyle Tucker for two weeks already.

But then the turnaround began. By the first game post-All-Star break (July 19), Houston had made up the 10-game deficit behind their northwest division rivals. And other than a brief period from Aug. 3-7, when Seattle reclaimed the top spot, Houston hasn’t surrendered its grasp on the division.

The Astros have undoubtedly always had the talent and experience within their lineup, even without Tucker, to climb out of whatever holes they managed to dig themselves into, with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman leading the way.

But this year, their pitching was what led to so much skepticism.

Yet, it’s the Astros’ pitching that’s been the most impressive part of the team recently, as their rotation has been electric and the big pieces in the back end of the bullpen are putting it all together.

So, as the postseason nears, the Astros’ pitching is coming to life and matching the star-studded makeup of their offense. Suddenly they look as poised as ever to make yet another AL pennant push.

Now let’s look into what exactly has made the Astros’ pitching situation so special as of late.

All statistics used within this article were taken prior to games on Sept. 6

The Astros Rotation Is Red Hot

The Astros have seemingly been behind the eight ball all year from a rotation standpoint due to injury.

They started the year without Luis Garcia, after his Tommy John surgery the year prior, and Lance McCullers Jr., who hasn’t pitched since 2022 due to flexor tendon surgery.

Then, midseason, they lost both Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John, as well as J.P. France to season-ending shoulder surgery.

And we can’t forget the ailments Justin Verlander has had this season resulting in a prolonged amount of time on the shelf.

But even without six of their key starting contributors from years past at times in 2024, Houston has had so many pitchers take huge strides this season. Now, what was once perceived as a major, arguably insurmountable weakness for the Astros has now become a strength. Manager Joe Espada is spoiled for choice when it comes to building a postseason rotation.

Framber Valdez

Pound for pound, there’s no arguing that Framber Valdez is the ace of this Astros rotation.

And he’s putting together yet another remarkable season. In 150.1 innings across 24 starts, Valdez has gone 13-6 while posting a 3.11 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and a .220 average against.

This season further adds to Valdez’s recent track record of dominance, as it marks the fourth consecutive year where he’s thrown 130+ innings with a sub-3.50 ERA and 11 or more wins.

While Valdez may not have the lights-out fastball that other aces across the league use to dominate the highlight reels — he has a 14th-percentile average fastball velo of just 90.3 mph according to Baseball Savant — his breaking stuff has been utterly dominant this season.

Valdez’s curveball is his go-to secondary pitch and has left hitters baffled this season. Opposing batters have managed just a .119 AVG and .189 SLG, with respective expected metrics of .128 and .189. Hitters have whiffed at Valdez’s curve at a 41.6% rate, and he bears a 26.6% put-away rate with the pitch.

With the strength of the AL East and the AL Central, the Astros project to host an AL Wild Card series. So, with the continuation of his career dominance paired with a wipeout breaking ball in 2024, Valdez is a sure-fire option to take the ball in Game 1.

Justin Verlander

Verlander has certainly not looked like his usual dominant self on the mound in 2024. He currently sports a 4.52 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP and is allowing a .252 average against through 71.2 innings of work.

One problem is that Verlander’s swing-and-miss capabilities continue to trend downward. This season marks the second consecutive year where Verlander has sported a K/9 total under 8.00. He hadn’t had a total this low since 2015 as a member of the Detroit Tigers.

But despite his underwhelming form on the bump, we can’t discount the Hall of Fame-worthy career the 41-year-old has put together.

The 2011 AL MVP, two-time World Series champion and three-time Cy Young Award winner has a career 3.27 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .224 average against in nearly 3,400 innings of work.

Entering 2024, Verlander ranked 17th all-time in career FanGraphs WAR for starting pitchers with an 81.4 mark.

Verlander has also put together an overall solid resume in the postseason, with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 226.0 postseason innings. This includes dominant series such as the 2017 ALCS in which Verlander took home ALCS MVP honors after going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA across 16.0 innings.

It remains to be seen what his role will be on the Astros postseason roster, but whether he takes his reps out of the starting rotation or as a swingman in the bullpen, Verlander’s track record makes it clear that he will play a role in another postseason run in the Space City.

Hunter Brown

The 2024 season started off in a brutal fashion for Hunter Brown. After a 2023 season that saw him post an ERA above 5.00 (5.09), Brown pitched himself to an 11.84 ERA in the month of April.

But since then, Brown has been a bill of consistency for Houston, posting at least a mid-3.00s ERA in each month since then, including sub-2.00 ERAs in June and August.

For his season stat line, Brown currently holds a 3.41 ERA to go alongside a 1.27 WHIP and a .240 average against.

Since his horrendous month of April, Brown has been one of the league’s best starting options. From May 1 onward, Brown has a 2.28 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and his opponents are only managing to hit .213 off of him.

A big part of Brown’s success has been his ability to suppress hard-hit balls. He ranks in the 97th percentile of big league pitchers this season in average exit velocity (85.8%) and the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate (29.9%). This has helped him prevent batters from barreling up his stuff, as he ranks in the 93rd percentile in barrel rate (4.3%)

Brown’s consistency has not only propelled him to a guaranteed place in the postseason rotation, but he should certainly be one of the pitchers to make one of the two guaranteed starts in a best-of-three AL Wild Card series.

Ronel Blanco

Ronel Blanco is in the midst of a remarkable rookie season.

After starting his first full season in the big leagues with a no-hitter on Apr. 1, Blanco has pitched to the tune of a 3.03 ERA, the second-best number in the American League. He trails only Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, the current AL Cy Young frontrunner.

Blanco has also put up a 1.09 WHIP and an incredible .188 average against.

Like his rotation-mate, Valdez, Blanco isn’t a guy that blows hitters away with his fastball, as his fastball run value sits in the 32nd percentile and his average fastball velocity of 93.4 mph places him in the 38th percentile.

But like Valdez, it’s his breaking stuff that has been so successful in 2024. His breaking run value puts him in the 100th percentile of pitchers.

His slider is his second most frequently used pitch and has held hitters to a .185 AVG while inducing a whiff on 32.5% of swings. And his least utilized yet best performing pitch, his curveball, has held hitters to a .063 AVG and holds a 40.6% whiff rate.

Yet, while the Astros starters were the best in MLB in the month of August, with a 5.5 fWAR and 2.59 ERA, Blanco had one of his poorest months.

In 24.1 innings of work across five August starts, Blanco posted a 4.07 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP. This marked his second straight month with an ERA over 4.00 after he posted a 4.40 ERA in July.

Blanco likely falls in a similar situation to Verlander; while he certainly has a role to play in the Astros’ postseason pitching plans, his recent form over the past few months, in addition to the exceptionally strong form from his fellow rotation members during that time, makes it hard to guess whether he’ll be a starter or a long-relief, swingman-style option out of the bullpen.

Yusei Kikuchi

One of Blanco’s rotation-mates who was on fire over the past month was also one of his newest teammates: Yusei Kikuchi.

In 22 starts with the Blue Jays before he was dealt to Houston at the trade deadline, Kikuchi posted an uninspiring 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .269 average against.

But since making his Astros debut on Aug. 2, Kikuchi has posted a 2.57 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP and a .178 average against in 35.0 innings across six starts.

And Kikuchi has seen a very noticeable uptick in his strikeout numbers since making the move south, as his 10.12 K/9 in 2024 in Toronto has elevated to a 12.09 K/9 in Houston.

Given his recent form and the huge package the Astros gave up to get him (especially for a rental), it’s hard to argue Kikuchi out of this postseason rotation. That said, he certainly isn’t a complete guarantee to make a Wild Card round start like Valdez and Brown.

Spencer Arrighetti

Like Kikuchi, Spencer Arrighetti‘s full-season numbers don’t look especially strong. The rookie starter currently holds a 4.63 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP.

But as the Astros rotation was thriving in August, so was Arrighetti. He made five starts last month, pitching 32.1 innings and posting a 1.95 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and a .168 average against.

Arrighetti also offers something that’s not overly common amongst Astros starters in 2024: solid swing-and-miss capabilities.

For the season, Arrighetti is sporting an 86th-percentile K-rate of 28.0% with a 76th-percentile whiff rate of 28.6%. And in August, Arrighetti posted a very promising K-rate of 38.2%.

Arrighetti’s rough start to the season and lack of prior postseason experience could hold him back from a spot in the postseason rotation. But with seemingly the best swing-and-miss stuff in the 2024 Astros rotation, he certainly has a role to play in October as someone with a different profile to his fellow starting teammates.

The Astros Bullpen Is Pulling it Together at the Perfect Time

Whoever doesn’t make the cut in the postseason rotation will account for effective coverage of longer relief roles.

And this will only serve to strengthen a bullpen that’s sporting top 10 totals in MLB in ERA, AVG, and K-rate.

Josh Hader

It’s been an up-and-down year for the Astros $95 million man.

After posting a 7.45 ERA in April, what followed for Josh Hader was a brilliant month of May where he posted a 1.35 ERA.

The rollercoaster continued with a 3.38 ERA in June and then an inflated 5.23 mark in August. But Hader enters the final stretch of the regular season coming off of the best month of his 2024 campaign.

Like many of Hader’s teammates in the starting rotation, he too put up a pitching masterclass last month, posting a 0.68 ERA and 0.60 WHIP with eight saves across 13.1 innings of work.

Looking at his season as a whole, Hader continues to dominate with incredible swing-and-miss capabilities. In 2024, he finds himself in the 100th percentile K-rate (38.5%) and whiff rate (40.3%).

Hader also continues to be a data darling with a 2.57 xERA and a .168 xBA, placing him in the 98th and 99th percentiles, respectively.

An in-form Hader is a nightmare for any opponent looking to create late-inning heroics in October and adds another layer to an Astros team looking to build upon their dynasty.

Bryan Abreu

By all accounts, it’s been a down year for Bryan Abreu. The powerful right-hander has posted a 3.41 ERA out of the Astros ‘pen in 2024, compared to the 1.75 mark he posted last season and his 1.94 number in 2022.

But this is in large part due to a rough month of August where he struggled with a 6.08 ERA across 13.1 innings pitched.

August aside, Abreu has been consistently a low-to-mid-2.00s ERA guy since April:

Abreu still sports impressive strikeout capabilities that he’s had since his breakout season in 2022. This season, he ranks in the 93rd percentile in K-rate (31.3%) and the 94th percentile in whiff rate (33.3%).

Ryan Pressly

Ryan Pressly is coming off the IL at the right time, as he’ll help ease the intensity of the workload for both Hader and Abreu in the late innings.

While Pressly may not be the same sub-3.00 ERA closer that he was with Houston in 2021 and 2022, he’s still a respectable 3.62 ERA pitcher with a 66th-percentile chase rate in 2024.

What’s more, his career 2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 14 saves in the postseason can’t be discounted as we approach another October.

A proven track record of closing experience and a solid 2024 showing to this point help Pressly round out a formidable back end of the bullpen

The Middle Men (Neris, Scott, Ort)

Beyond the plethora of starting options and immense talent anchoring the back end of the bullpen, Houston’s middle relief options can’t be overlooked either.

Héctor Neris brings Houston a recent wealth of postseason experience including a 0.00 ERA in the 2022 World Series and 2.84 ERA in the 2023 ALCS.

Tayler Scott has been dazzling with a 2.04 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and a .179 WHIP this season. He’s been one of the league’s better pitchers when it comes to limiting hard hits, as he has an 87.8 mph average exit velocity (77th percentile) and a 3.0% barrel rate (98th percentile).

Finally, Kaleb Ort is sporting an extremely low 1.06 ERA, 0.59 WHIP and .136 average against to pair with a lights-out fastball, which averages 97.7 mph, placing him in the 96th percentile.

What the Astros’ Pitching Surge Means in the Grand Scheme of Things

With the pitching trending upwards in the second half of the season, the Astros now seem to have the arms to match the firepower they’ve long had within their lineup.

The Astros’ offense ranks 10th in fWAR, eighth in wRC+, third in AVG, tenth in OBP and 11th in SLG.

And their big-name stars have been in fine form in 2024.

Yordan Alvarez has 30 HR and 73 RBI with a slashline of .309/.395/.562 and a 166 wRC+. Alvarez is coming off a month in which he hit .382 with a 1.178 OPS.

Jose Altuve still looks strong at 34 years old. In 136 games and 601 plate appearances, the 2017 AL MVP is hitting .294 with a 125 wRC+.

Alex Bregman has rebounded from a slow start to the season to post a .259 AVG and 115 wRC+. He features an above-average approach at the plate, sitting above the 80th percentile in K-rate, chase rate and whiff rate.

And Kyle Tucker just made his return after hitting the IL on June 3 with a fractured shin. Before his injury, Tucker was in the MVP conversation with 19 HR, 40 RBI, a slash line of .266/.395/.584 and a 175 wRC+ in 262 plate appearances.

The Astros are now one of MLB’s most complete teams heading into October and are built to cause headaches for whoever comes in their path.

And now that their pitching has caught up, the goal of eight straight ALCS appearances and a third World Series title suddenly feels more realistic in Houston.