Evaluation Station: Ethan Petry
Petry is a pure slugger with a lot to prove this spring.
On April 6th, 2023, a Gamecock legend was born.
That night, a nineteen-year-old freshman faced arguably the best pitching prospect of the past decade, as Paul Skenes toed the rubber for the opposing LSU Tigers.
Skenes starts the freshman with a slider up and in, missing his spot by a good margin. Then came the heaters. Skenes paints 100 MPH on the outside black, strike one. Skenes attempts to hammer the same place but misses the zone by a hair. The next pitch had the same result, though Skenes had closed the margin to the zone. Then came the mistake pitch.
On the fifth pitch of the at-bat, Skenes caught too much of the plate and the freshman did not miss it, clearing the away dugout on its flight through the air. He’d add a grand slam later in the game, padding an already impressive resume against the eventual national champions.
The name? Ethan Petry.
Petry’s journey is an exciting one. Highly regarded as a prepster, Petry was impressed with his power at multiple stops during his summer circuit tour, and he even showed off his arm talent on the mound in the spring.
However, he went unselected in the draft and wound up in Columbia, becoming one of the best prep bats to reach campus. This culminated in a fantastic spring, in which he slashed .376/.471/.733 with 23 home runs and put his name on the top of 2025 draft lists.
There were obvious warts, but the building block to a Day 1 prospect was there, as Petry posted a 73% contact rate and impressive power numbers.
Expectations were high for his sophomore campaign, and while a .306/.471/.639 slash line is still impressive, Petry’s underlying numbers regressed and left us with questions about his draft stock and how it would stand in a weak college class.
So, what exactly happened with Petry, and why is he so low on our board compared to others in the industry?
There’s a multitude of things that hold us back on his profile in this class, but if there’s one thing to say about it, it’s that we think he’s more of a “one trick pony” than anything else. But, what made me come to this conclusion? My evaluation process is based upon certain “pillars” that have led me to trust my process more, and if there’s one thing to know in scouting, it’s to stick to your guns.
Those “pillars” are the following:
- Finding outlier tools in a player’s profile
- Ability to handle velocity and/or spin
- In-zone contact/chase rates
- Athleticism
Utilizing these pillars, I’ll break down my evaluation process and find ways to be constructive with my critique, not harsh.
I firmly believe Petry will be a Day 1 prospect, but finding the tools to give him a first-round grade has become tougher. There will be comparisons made to similar prospects in this class, including Henry Ford, Nolan Schubart, and Tanner Thach.
Let’s dive in.
Evaluating Ethan Petry
Power
We’ll start with the offensive toolset with Petry, especially since the bat will carry plenty in his profile given the defense.
The outlier trait in Petry’s profile is his prodigious power, as evidenced by the 44 career home runs through two seasons. He can generate obscene bat speed from the right side of the plate with loft and leverage, allowing him to possess plus power in-game and potentially double-plus raw power.
The power plays to both sides of the park with a tendency to hammer the gaps often, especially against right-handed arms. This is a change from his freshmen campaign, where Petry pulled the ball in the air much more. The story is slightly different when he’s facing southpaws, as Petry tends to let the ball travel deeper into the zone and employ an opposite-field approach.
To add to the success, Petry has posted healthy fly ball rates across both collegiate campaigns (37% and 35% respectively), and he’s produced quality launch angle and barrel percentage averages.
While Petry isn’t the heaviest hitter in the power department in this class, there’s a good chance that he has the most power of any right-handed bat in this college class. In 2024, Petry posted these power numbers:
- Average EV: 91.7 MPH
- 90th Percentile EV: 108.9 MPH
- Maximum EV: 114 MPH
Representatives on our Top 80 College list, Aiva Arquette, Gavin Turley, and Bryce Molinaro, come close to the higher-end numbers. Still, ultimately, Petry holds the top spot.
The amount of Ethan Petry HR's on this laptop has gotten bigger.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 7, 2024
Petry swung through a SL on the first pitch, but hammers a CH away to the opposite field that barely got out. Left the bat at 109 MPH. One of the better bats in next year's class. pic.twitter.com/ME9RRXqizL
In comparison to others who have a first-base label to shed in 2025, here’s how Petry fares:
We’ll touch on what separates these guys later on, but it puts into perspective their sheer power and how good Petry’s is.
While the average exit velocity does lag behind, he boasts the second-best 90th percentile and maximum exit velocity of the group. The 90th percentile exit velocity was well above the college average in 2024, which sat at 105.6 MPH.
If there’s one thing to nitpick with Petry’s power, it’s a downtrend in his pulled contact in the air. A pulled fly ball is amongst the most valuable BIP results in baseball, and while the marks that Petry has posted to this point are above the major league average of 7%, the downtrend between his freshman and sophomore campaigns is a bit worrisome.
Here are the statistics from his 2023, 2024, and recent Cape campaigns:
Assuming that Petry can return to his 2023 form and pull the ball in the air more, it would sufficiently help his draft stock.
Hit Tool
This is where things start to get a bit hairy in Petry’s profile and separates him from someone like Henry Ford.
Petry’s 2023 breakout had plenty of positives to build upon. While the strikeouts were a bit concerning, Petry’s .376/.471/.733 slash line was astounding and he broke the South Carolina freshman record for home runs (23) and runs batted in (75). It was a revelation and many believed that he could match, or even improve, upon that in his sophomore campaign.
What came next was a bit of an underwhelming season.
While Petry managed to improve his walk rate substantially, even matching his OBP of .471 from 2023, his batting average dipped down to .306 and the strikeouts piled up at a staggering rate. Petry’s overall contact rate dropped substantially from 73% to 64.8% in 2024, a well below-average mark.
The primary reason for this drop? Petry began to whiff much more in the zone and his ability to handle velocity, especially upstairs, was a big concern. Teams began to exploit his weaknesses upstairs and Petry struggled to adjust as the season progressed.
As a result, Petry’s in-zone contact rate dropped from 80% in 2023 to 74% in 2024, which is a below-average mark in the college landscape. The average mark for in-zone contact in 2024 was 83.8%. His swinging strike rate also jumped above 14%, plus he posted a mark of 17% on the Cape.
The biggest reason this occurred is because of Petry’s inability to manipulate the barrel. He struggled to shorten up his swing and create a consistent bat path, which led to an inaccurate barrel through the zone and creating off-balanced swings consistently.
For reference, Petry posted a 23% whiff rate on heaters in 2023, but that jumped to 32% in 2024. This included a 30% whiff rate on heaters in the zone and a 45% mark on heaters in the upper third of the strike zone, a stark change from 2023. Unfortunately, that will not cut it at the next level.
Another bugaboo in Petry’s profile is his performance against secondary offerings. His inconsistencies with barrel control led to his whiff rates against sliders and change-ups to jump drastically throughout 2024, including on the Cape. His whiff rates were north of 35% in the spring and during the summer, they jumped over 40%.
It’s a worrying trend that needs to be watched closely, though, on the bright side, he doesn’t chase at an egregious clip and has shown the patience to rack up walks.
With all of this said, there’s some faith to be had for the future. During his time with Yarmouth-Dennis, Petry posted a .360/.480/.760 slash line with eighteen extra-base hits, which culminated in an MVP award.
While his .392 BABIP and glaring whiffs stood out, he showed improvements with velocity, especially in the zone. His in-zone whiff rate on heaters dropped to 22%, and he did most of his damage to left center field.
Overall, Petry will need to show scouts that he can create a consistent path through the zone and improve his barrel control. Whiffs will always be part of his game as a slugger, but keeping them to a minimum is key to his success.
Another key to unlocking his full potential is finding more success in pulling the baseball, which was a key component to his breakout in 2023. He has shown us what he’s capable of with the bat, it’s just a matter of finding that form again. Moving the needle from below-average to fringe-average or better with the hit tool would do wonders for his stock.
Defense
The biggest thing that Petry needs to shake off in 2025 is the first base label that scouts have applied to him, including myself.
In high school, Petry had plenty of reps at third base, but scouts expressed concerns about the quickness in his lower half. Once he got to South Carolina, he was moved to right field and experienced plenty of growing pains. His route-running got adventurous as a freshman and while he had the arm strength to play the position, his limited range and speed hampered his full potential.
There were improvements in 2024, showing flashes of a capable defender in the outfield, but his lack of athleticism and slowing speed have led to him getting more reps at first base.
The concerns about his lower half quickness have become a reality. He possesses a clunky gait in stride and doesn’t have explosive jumps off the bat, which limits his mobility and range. During the fall, Petry did play some third base, but reports indicated that his footwork was a work in progress at the position.
Admittedly, Petry boasts above-average arm strength, as he’s been clocked into the mid-90s as an arm during his prep days, but the lack of athleticism makes it tough to pin him down as a corner outfielder at the next level.
Unless sufficient changes are made and he can show quicker jumps, improved route-running, and more mobility, it’s tough to say he isn’t a first baseman. This would put immense pressure on the bat to perform.
The Outlook for Ethan Petry
Overall, Petry is a pure slugger who has a lot more to prove this spring, but the weak nature of this draft class gives him some breathing room.
As a scout, you are buying in on the immense power from the right side of the dish and hoping that the batted-ball data returns to form after a down 2024, even with a Cape MVP to show for it.
I’m a firm believer that Petry will make improvements, but this spring will be a big test. My plan is to see him two more times this spring to see what changes.
At the end of the day, Petry fits in the 40+ FV (future value) tier for me, which would put him somewhere in the late second or early third round. This is how I envision his grades at this moment in time:
Hit: 40 | Power: 60 | Run: 30 | Arm: 55 | Field: 30
It’ll be tough to envision him usurping the likes of Ford and Schubart from this chair, but if scouting has taught me anything, you’ll be wrong 99% of the time. I’ll be prepared to be wrong on this evaluation come July.
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