Yesterday stunk. The Brewers had a 4-3 lead going into the seventh, where they’ve been fantastic at closing games out all year. Joel Payamps came in, trying to record his 12th straight scoreless appearance, and he allowed a two-run home run to give the Giants a lead. The guy who blew a four-run lead for us against the Mariners threw 1.1 innings of shutout baseball.

That’s baseball for you. I just haven’t been on the right side of variance this year. Not complaining, let’s win today. Totals have been great to us, and I have two today.

If anyone is interested in my NFL Futures (+35.25 Units in 2023), click here.

2024 Record: 107-111 (-7.76 U)

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Joe Musgrove (4.43 ERA) vs. Andre Pallante (3.84 ERA)

The first two games of this series have gone over the total by a decent margin, but this is the best pitching matchup of the series. No wonder the books won’t raise this total to nine after a combined 23 runs were scored over the first two games. Both pitchers are on a heater, and the bullpens are good enough to keep this a lower-scoring game.

Joe Musgrove is back. He is back pitching and looks like Joe Musgrove, who signed an extension with the Padres to be a borderline ace. It took him a few starts to get rolling, but I’m buying stock after that seven-inning shutout against the Mets. The velocity on his pitch mix was up across the board, and he was throwing everything where he wanted it. He went seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts and zero walks on 75 pitches.

Can he be that good today? He has the upside for it with a fresh arm, and the Cardinals lineup could have been better against right-handed pitching lately. Since August began, the Cardinals have a 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which ranks 22nd in the league. They rank 23rd in OPS during that period, which ranks 23rd. If we look at the last two weeks, this offense ranks 19th in wRC+ and 16th in OPS.

With the way Musgrove will look today, I think he mows down any offense that isn’t crushing righties. The Cardinals hit up Cease but got limited by Randy Vasquez. Musgrove should have more confidence in his stuff, especially after that outing. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him throw a shutout in this game. But still, I project six innings of two-run ball from Musgrove.

Andre Pallante has the highest groundball rate in baseball. His 62.4% GB rate is nearly identical to Logan Webb’s last year, where he dominated. The converted reliever is one of the more underrated starting pitchers in baseball right now. His 3.84 ERA is solid, but his 3.49 xERA is even better.

Today, he has a tough matchup against an excellent Padres offense. He’s used to tough matchups, he’s had four brutal ones in a row. He didn’t pitch well against the Mets, did much better against the Royals in Kansas City, then faced the Dodgers at home and great, then dominated the Twins at Target Field. He’s had four challenging matchups in August and he’s put up a 3.33 ERA.

I have faith that he can hold it down for six innings of three run ball. That would give him a 4.50 ERA for the day, which is higher than the average of four starts against really good offenses. His ability to keep the ball on the ground is huge, he’s only given up one home run in those four starts and his xFIP doesn’t imply future home run regression.

The Cardinals bullpen is not only rested with key arms, but they have been solid since July 1st, rocking a 3.79 ERA, good for 13th in the league. The Padres bullpen isn’t in an ideal rest spot, but they have enough arms to do the job behind Musgrove. They are the number one bullpen by FIP since the trade deadline when they acquired all those studs.

On top of it all, there is a projected 5-10 MPH wind blowing in today. The last two days, that wind has been blowing out, but it has reversed course today based on the weather projections.

I think this total would be 7.5 if it weren’t for the first two games soaring over. We have two pitchers looking the best they’ve looked all year, with above-average bullpens backing them. I project five runs from the starters and two runs from the bullpens. I would take this down to 8 (-105) with an extra run to spare.

The Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) Risk 1.15 Units

New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Luis Severino (3.84 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (3.94 ERA)

Luis Severino has been solid this season, and Eduardo Rodriguez isn’t so bad, either. The bullpens are pretty good, as well. However, these offenses are way too hot not to take this over, and both offenses have great matchups today. On top of it all, Arizona will be super hot, which hits a weather trend that points toward the over.

Let’s start with the trend. As we know, I never blindly follow a trend, but this one works in our favor. When the temperature is 95-114 degrees, the over is 317-235-28 (57.4%) with a 10.4% ROI. It’s supposed to be over 100 degrees today in Chase Field, with average temperatures projected to be between 103-106.

It sounds so simple and stupid that these trends are profitable just because it’s hot. I trust them because I played baseball. You likely did as well. Gripping the baseball is rough in these conditions as sweat leaks down your arm. Getting fatigued early is also easy, as that hot air can weigh anyone down. On top of all of that, these pitchers have to face scorching offenses.

Right-hander Luis Severino takes the mound against the best offense in baseball against righties in August. They have a 146 wRC+ against righties in August, which is 11% better than any other offense in baseball. They have the most hits, runs, and home runs. It’s all clicking, and I’m buying after getting limited by left-hander Sean Manaea.

Severino has 51 PA against this Diamondbacks’ current roster, and the Snakes have a .347 xwOBA (above average) and a low 17.6% strikeout rate. They’ve seen him, hit him, and are red-hot against righties. They are the seventh-best offense against right-handed four-seamers and sinkers, so Severino must be elite with his breaking pitches today to survive. In this heat, with a 4.63 ERA on the road, I don’t see that happening. I think it could be a quick exit for Severino today, but I project six innings while allowing four runs.

I considered backing the Diamondbacks today but don’t trust Eduardo Rodriguez. In three starts, he’s looked mediocre against below-average offenses. The Guardians are going through it right now, but they still have three runs off him. The Rockies got three against him in five innings. Then he faced the worst team against lefties in the Marlins and threw 5.1 innings of one-run ball on six hits. His xERA is 4.65, and he doesn’t look that good when I watch him.

The Mets are the best offense he’s faced so far, and he gets to do it in 105-degree weather. The Mets are the fourth-best offense by wRC+ in August against southpaws. Over the entire season, the Mets are the second best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching, only trailing the Phillies. They are also the number one road offense against left-handed pitching by wRC+.

Rodriguez has faced the Mets over 64 PA, rocking a .338 xwOBA (above average) and an 18.8% strikeout rate (below average). They should hit him up similarly to the Diamondbacks against Severino. My projection is three runs over five innings.

The first five over is probably the move, but I think both hit, and I’ll always take hot offenses throughout the game instead of the first five unless the handicap is fully centered around the starters. Both teams can hit righties and lefties, and while both bullpens are solid, the offenses are better.

I project seven runs from the starters and three runs from the bullpens. This total should be closer to 9.5 instead of 8.5, so I’ll gladly lay the juice here and take it to 9 (-110).

The Pick: Over 8.5 (-120) Risk 1.2 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.