Written By: Tomas Romo
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
We are headed into week three of the MLB season, after securing back-to-back winning weeks to start off the year. To recap yesterday we went 3-1 on the day gaining +1.6 units.
The Tampa Bay Rays stuck to their winning ways, I don’t know when they are going to drop their first game, shout out Drew Rasmussen. The Bronx Bombers and Nestor Cortes slugged out a win to cash our parlay. How about the Miami Marlins? Fading Carlos Carrasco will continue to be our specialty.
If only the Braves got it done, we would’ve had a perfect day, tough to lose a two unit play in blowout fashion but we head into a new week. This moves our overall record to 37-12 and we are up +29.40 units. We are just getting started and the hot streak continues today!
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 37-12 (+29.40 U)
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 6:35 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: JP Sears vs. Kyle Gibson
The Athletics got outscored this past weekend 31-5 by the Tampa Bay Rays on the road. Then now are headed to Baltimore after using eight bullpen arms and this is a perfect spot to fade one of the worst teams in baseball. Oakland still has yet to win a game on the road and they will be going against Kyle Gibson.
I said it at the beginning of the season that we were going to ride with Baltimore and this matchup against Oakland is the perfect spot to bet them. JP Sears, in his one start on the road against Baltimore, took a 5-2 loss. Sears is more of a flyout pitcher and the wind will be slightly blowing out to left field come game time, which should pair well for an Orioles lineup that will feature a majority of right-handed hitters.
Baltimore opened at a -160 favorite and have steamed all the way up to -175. With the line movement in their favor and the run line being closer to even money at +105 in some books, give me the O’s. I see Baltimore putting some runs on Sears and a depleted bullpen en route to a win. Instead of winning by just one they got to win by at least two. Simple enough.
The Play: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+110) & Baltimore TT o4.5 (-115) both plays are bet to win 1 U
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Nick Pivetta vs. Josh Fleming
This game is going to be a slugfest. Both teams scored over 20 runs this past weekend and this is a divisional game. The familiarity between the two teams won’t go unnoticed and both of these clubs are batting above .260.
Nick Pivetta has a 1-5 record with a 4.83 ERA in eight appearances against Tampa in his career. His first start of the season was against Pittsburgh and let’s get real, Tampa is the far superior team. Fleming on the other hand has a 1-3 record with a 9.59 ERA in six appearances against Boston. Those numbers look good for our potential over, the line opened at 8 runs and is now at 8.5 and is still juiced up at -120. Lock in the over quickly.
The Play: Red Sox/Rays O8.5 (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U.
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers @ 8:05 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Zach Grienke vs. Andrew Heaney
This is a play I’m not going to overthink. The total for this game opened up at 8.5 and overnight it went up to 9. The surprising part was this morning in some books I saw this line go back to 8.5 or it was juiced at -125 still at 9.
Zach Grienke has pitched well in his career against Texas with a 3.63 ERA and in his lone start against the Rangers in 2022. he went six innings only allowing one run. Heaney also fairs well against his opponent. He carves up the Royals and is 2-0 lifetime with a 2.28 ERA in four starts. I had my eye on this game yesterday and the stats and numbers seem to favor my side as well. I see this line coming back down to 8.5 as a typical reverse line movement and we are going to lock in the under before the line moves back down.
The Play: Royals/Rangers U9 (-125) 1.25 U to win 1 U
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 PM EST.
Pitching Matchup: Patrick Corbin vs. Jose Suarez
We have two plays in this game for tonight. While we usually fade Patrick Corbin in these spots I don’t see any value on betting the Angels on the moneyline or run line. This is a team that is coming off a 12-11 extra-inning game where they used five of their bullpen arms. The Nationals have been one of the better left-handed hitting teams to start the season and I see a lot of runs being scored.
The line opened at 9 and has already moved to 9.5 sitting at -125 in multiple books. This is a clear over play. The second pick with this game is gross, but I have to pull the trigger on it. 78% of the tickets are on the Angels today yet they are only receiving 38% of the money. The public is all over the Angels and I see this being a parlay piece for multiple betters out there. I’m going to do the opposite because the sharp money seems to be on Washington and there’s too much value not to sprinkle them to win.
The Play: Nationals/Angels O9.5 (-125) 1.25 U to win 1 U & Nationals ML (+215) .5 U to win 1.08 U