Who Cracks the Dodgers’ Loaded Rotation Come October?

The Los Angeles Dodgers did the inevitable, adding Tarik Skubal to an already-loaded pitching staff. “It was Skubal or nothing, essentially,” Dave Roberts told the media after the trade.

The rotation had posted a 3.50 ERA across a National League-leading 622.2 innings prior to the August 3 deadline, all without major contributions from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, who are set to return in the coming weeks.

Reigning World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto has done the brunt of the work, pitching to a 2.76 ERA through 133.2 innings, while fellow All-Star Justin Wrobleski has done well eating innings amid the staff’s health struggles.

Shohei Ohtani looked like a Cy Young contender before a series of injuries took him out of the rotation for the foreseeable future, which surely contributed to the Dodgers’ push for Skubal. The team still expects Ohtani to return to the mound before the playoffs.

Two inconsistent young arms have had opposing trajectories of late, with Roki Sasaki surging and Emmet Sheehan being optioned to Triple-A after 20 starts. Eric Lauer has also been a steady force amid their up-and-down play, with the Dodgers winning his first eight starts.

The Dodgers also added 2025 All-Star Kris Bubic, who has been sidelined by a flurry of arm injuries. And for what it’s worth, Gavin Stone has begun his rehab assignment as he works his way back from shoulder surgery.

This creates an 11-man list of legitimate major league starting pitchers, with just four playoff rotation spots to fill.

Stats recorded prior to play on August 6.

The Locks

It’s safe to say Yamamoto and Skubal will be heading the Dodgers’ October rotation.

Of course, Yamamoto’s postseason heroics were well documented. He gave up just six earned runs across 37.1 innings, including two complete games, and famously came back in Game 7 on zero days’ rest after throwing 96 pitches to close out the World Series.

Skubal was equally dominant, tossing 20.2 innings and striking out 36 batters while allowing just four runs, though Detroit failed to make it past the Division Series.

Few frontline starter duos in MLB history can match what the Dodgers now have.

The Injury-Riddled Arms

Snell had his share of playoff dominance, giving up just two runs over his first 21 innings last October before getting touched up by the Blue Jays in the World Series. He needed surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow after just one start and is set to return during the next turn of the rotation.

It was a near-identical situation leading into last October, as he made just two starts to begin 2025 before dealing with shoulder fatigue and returning in August. He finished the season with a 2.41 ERA and a 32.7% strikeout rate.

The Dodgers will hope for a similar finish from Snell, one that resembles his Cy Young form as they search for a three-peat.

Glasnow’s season was derailed in May by back spasms, but he has begun his rehab assignment and appears likely to return shortly after Snell.

Glasnow posted a 2.72 ERA across 39.2 innings before his lengthy IL stint. The coaching staff tweaked his pitch usage and found success by emphasizing his sinker. The often-injured Glasnow missed the 2024 World Series run, but he contributed both rotation and bullpen innings last October, pitching to a 1.72 ERA.

Ohtani’s return remains up in the air, with no current timeline for him to begin a throwing program. While the club remains confident he will return, the bigger question is whether he’ll be able to deliver six-plus innings again this season.

If he is back, he’ll no doubt be used as a starter, though more likely with a bulk arm behind him, something the Dodgers should have no trouble finding.

Bubic is expected to be back by the end of August and has begun throwing bullpens for the first time since his injury setback. An All-Star starter last summer, Bubic was also extremely effective out of the bullpen in 2024, posting a 28.1% K-BB% and a 1.95 FIP across 30.1 innings.

He should have enough time to build back up as a starter, but it’s more likely he ends up in a bullpen role.

The Young and Unproven Postseason Starters

Wrobleski had been cruising until his past two starts, in which he’s given up 12 runs and eight home runs, ballooning his ERA from 2.62 to 3.31. His career high in innings came last year, when he tossed 123.1 innings. He’s already nearing that figure in August while carrying a full starter’s workload.

Wrobleski also posted a 2.18 FIP out of the bullpen last season, and his stuff will surely play up in shorter spurts. He’s as good a candidate as any to transition to a relief role in October.

While the overall season numbers don’t show it, Sasaki has transformed into the pitcher the Dodgers were expecting. His velocity and fastball shape have vastly improved, along with his execution. The consistency isn’t quite there yet, but the stuff is extremely potent.

Sasaki’s 0.84 ERA in high-leverage innings last October came without his new-and-improved arsenal. He’s also expressed comfort with returning to the bullpen for the postseason.

Like Wrobleski and Sasaki, Sheehan was shifted into a bullpen role down the stretch last season, though his case to crack the roster has become murkier. He’s maintained solid peripherals, but his 5.29 ERA got him optioned to Triple-A. Sheehan also wasn’t as effective as a reliever as his peers last October.

Outside of Yamamoto, Stone was the Dodgers’ most reliable starter in 2024 before shoulder surgery ended his season in August. If he performs well in Triple-A, there’s a good chance Stone will see big-league innings this season, though October still seems unlikely.

Crafting the October Rotation

Health permitting, here is the projected Dodgers rotation come October:

Past the top two, the uncertainty creeps in. It’s almost expected that Snell will perform regardless of how much time he misses. That’s been the norm for practically the entirety of his career. Ohtani will start should he be back, though a designated piggyback option will likely be in place to cover some of his innings if he’s not fully built up.

Luckily for the rest of the pitchers, the Dodgers view the playoff staff as a compilation of the 14 best arms available. Glasnow, Wrobleski, and Sasaki should slot into high-leverage roles, with one of them likely picking up bulk innings behind Ohtani.

Bubic was likely added with the mindset that he would contribute bullpen innings in October. Sheehan has a tougher case to make the postseason roster, but he certainly has the ability to contribute should he show improvements through the rest of the season.

Lauer and Stone are more unlikely options, but both could eat up innings in multi-inning relief outings if needed.