Will the Trade-Off Be Worth the Addition of Luis Arraez?

Another trade deadline has come and gone, and the contending Philadelphia Phillies were once again in need of plenty of help. This year, the Phillies were far more aggressive in addressing their offensive shortcomings. Dave Dombrowski pulled the trigger and went out to get the top bat on the market.

The move certainly bolstered the Phillies’ offense, but it came at a price. Luis Arraez has made it clear that he wants to remain at second base. The Phillies, though, lacked quality in the outfield, not the infield.

To accommodate the acquisition of Arraez, the Phillies are making major changes to their defensive alignment. The club is planning to move Bryce Harper back to right field, slide Alec Bohm over to first base, and kick Bryson Stott to third base to clear the way for Arraez at second.

The problem for the Phillies is that Harper has not played the outfield in over four years, Stott has logged just 15 big league innings at the hot corner and is a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman, and Bohm has not looked comfortable at first base when given the opportunity. So the question remains: will the mass shuffling of the Phillies’ defense be worth the addition of Arraez’s bat?

The Fit of The Bat

There’s no denying that the Phillies will benefit immensely from adding a bat like Luis Arraez to the top of their lineup. Philadelphia has had major problems with swing-and-miss and chase rates when October arrives. Arraez has a career strikeout rate of just 5.9%, making him the type of player the Phillies desperately needed.

While batting average is not valued nearly as much as it once was, the Phillies needed a table setter atop their lineup before Schwarber and Harper. The club has slotted him into the cleanup spot early in his Phillies tenure, but he will likely see time at leadoff eventually.

Philadelphia will feel comfortable hitting him anywhere in the lineup. As a leadoff hitter, his knack for base hits will be extremely valuable in getting runners on in front of their sluggers. As a cleanup hitter, his .382 average and .855 OPS with runners in scoring position have the Phillies confident in his ability to slot in behind their big bats.

Luis Arraez draws many comparisons to baseball legend Tony Gwynn. His bat-to-ball skills are among the best in baseball and something the Phillies lack. Arraez is one of the most polarizing players in baseball. He ranks in the first percentile in barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed while ranking in the 100th percentile in whiff and strikeout percentage, according to Baseball Savant.

Among the Phillies’ offensive problems is their inability to hit left-handed pitching. Many around the industry expected Philadelphia to be involved in talks for the numerous right-handed bats moved at this season’s deadline.

However, the addition of Arraez makes sense because of his ability to hit left-handed pitching at a similar clip to his production against righties. Arraez is hitting .315 with a .782 OPS against southpaw pitching. His ability to hit both left- and right-handed pitching, along with the defensive versatility the 29-year-old brings, makes him a good splash for Philadelphia.

The Defensive Dilemma

This trade from the Phillies does create question marks all around the diamond defensively. The first issue is moving a Gold Glove finalist second baseman to the hot corner, where he’s barely played throughout his professional career. The club has faith in Stott’s glove translating to the hot corner, but he’s not exactly known for having a strong arm. Stott ranks in the 32nd percentile in arm strength, according to Baseball Savant.

Alec Bohm has started nearly every game at third base this year. Bohm was once one of the worst defensive third basemen in baseball, but he improved before regressing at the hot corner. He saw significant time at first base in 2023, where he was a well below-average fielder. With the arrival of Arraez, Bohm will primarily move across the diamond.

In Bryce Harper’s first full season at first base, he played Gold Glove-level defense. He’s seen a drop-off in his glove since then, but the Phillies still preferred him to stay at first. In an effort to preserve his health, the Phillies spent the past few years ensuring he remained at the position. Harper urged the Phillies to make a move, expressing his willingness to return to the outfield.

Harper got his wish. The Phillies jumped on the Arraez market and pushed Harper back to right field. Harper hasn’t played the outfield since early 2022 and has been an up-and-down fielder throughout his career. In right field, Harper has posted 1 DRS and -25 OAA over his career. With this move, it’s clear the Phillies are prioritizing the offensive impact of the acquisition.

Fortunately for the Phillies, Arraez’s glove has been a major revelation this season and has undoubtedly increased his value. At second base this year, the four-time All-Star has tallied 11 OAA. Philadelphia is moving a Gold Glove-level second baseman to make way for another one playing at that level. The improvement of his glove softens the defensive blow this move creates for the Phillies.

The Verdict

In a vacuum, this addition to the Phillies’ lineup is excellent. Arraez has posted a 120 wRC+, 127 OPS+, and a 3.7 fWAR. His traits as a hitter perfectly fill a need for Philadelphia’s lineup. His play style is ideal for a team built around the home run ball but prone to swinging and missing. His production instantly makes him one of the Phillies’ best hitters.

The problem for the Phillies remains in the moves they did not make. While acquiring Arraez provides Bryce Harper with more protection and gives the lineup a table setter at the top, Philadelphia still has obvious holes. Harper sliding back to the outfield strengthens a very weak position group, but it does not provide a complete solution.

Justin Crawford has not been productive, Marsh has fallen off, and Rincones did not produce. Derek Hill has been excellent since the Phillies picked him up, but it’s difficult to ask him to be the second-best right-handed hitter in the lineup. Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, and J.T. Realmuto were all expected to be productive right-handed bats, but all three have been below-average hitters.

The Phillies got creative to make room for Arraez. That being said, they should have been more assertive in moving off Bohm and adding a reliable right-handed hitting outfielder. Taylor Ward would have been an excellent addition, and he went for a relatively cheap price. Ward could have slotted directly into the No. 5 spot in the lineup, which is now being occupied by a 76 wRC+ hitter in Bohm.

The Phillies don’t lack left-handed hitting. Harper, Schwarber, Arraez, Stott, who has been excellent at the plate lately, and Marsh, who was an All-Star starter, all hit from the left side. Meanwhile, they don’t have a single productive bat from the right side.

Ultimately, the Phillies’ move for Arraez should have just been the first domino to fall in the lineup. The defensive rearranging may present some problems for Philadelphia, but adding a high-quality, reliable bat-to-ball hitter was a win for the Phillies. Ramon Marquez was a quick riser in the Phillies’ organization, but the club needed to give its aging core a fighting chance to win a World Series.