Could Cam Schlittler’s Unreal Run Result in a Cy Young?

Since his debut in 2025, Cam Schlittler has been one of the best starters in baseball. He started 14 games for the New York Yankees that season, posting a 2.96 ERA with 84 strikeouts over that 73-inning stretch.

His ability to continue that elite production in 2026 was uncertain entering the season. Fast forward to now, and he’s making an early case for being a top pitcher in all of baseball. Schlittler’s unique approach has opposing teams struggling to find answers every time he takes the mound.

He’s done far more than simply sustain last year’s success, as his dominance has only continued to grow in 2026. With elite stuff, swing-and-miss ability, and consistently strong results against baseball’s best, Schlittler has quickly emerged as one of the leading candidates in the American League Cy Young race.

Though he is competing with established elite arms, Schlittler has set himself up to make a legitimate run at the award by the end of the season.

Bursting Onto the Scene

It did not take long for Schlittler to find success in 2026, tossing back-to-back scoreless outings in his first two times out this season. He has continued to do more of the same in the eight starts since then.

Over his first 11 starts, he’s worked 66 innings, posting a 1.50 ERA with 75 strikeouts. That earned run average tops Major League Baseball among qualified pitchers, and he is hardly benefiting from a small sample size, tossing the most innings in the sport so far.

His dominance does not stop there; his 5.77 K/BB ratio is fifth in baseball, and his strikeout-minus-walk rate of 24.5% ranks sixth in the sport. Limiting walks while racking up strikeouts is one of the most valuable traits a starter can possess, and Schlittler is doing it at a rate few can match.

That production has translated into elite value, as his 2.7 fWAR is the top mark in MLB among pitchers and second in the entire sport only behind Bobby Witt Jr.

The Fuel Behind His Success

When it comes to pitch arsenal, Schlittler is a bit of a unicorn. He features a four-seamer, cutter, sinker, curveball, and a slider. He uses his three fastball variations at a rate that exceeds 90 percent.

The three offerings all have unique movement profiles compared to each other. His four-seamer generates around 17 inches of induced vertical break, which is about seven inches more than the sinker and cutter, while the latter two separate in horizontal break by over 20 inches.

The separation in movement is just one piece to the puzzle for his success. What really makes him difficult on opposing batters is his ability to tunnel them off one another.

Making different pitch types look the same out of his hand has resulted in weak contact, swing-and-miss, and a lot of chase.

In terms of quality of contact, he has allowed an 87.9 mph average exit velocity this season, which is in the 70th percentile. His hard-hit rate is slightly below league average, but a 48.3% ground-ball rate makes up for the occasional hard contact.

Even with a fastball-heavy approach, Schlittler still generates chase at a high level. His 37.2% O-Swing% ranks third among qualified starters, helping him both induce weak contact and swings and misses.

That approach has translated into dominant bat-missing numbers, as Schlittler owns a 29.9% whiff rate and 30.1% strikeout rate this season. He is one of just five qualified starters with a strikeout rate north of 30%.

Dominating Both Sides of the Batter’s Box

Perhaps the most impressive part of his game is that he is essentially immune to the platoon. His splits against both left-handed and right-handed batters have been dominant in their own standard.

He attacks each side differently, with righties seeing a fairly even mix of each fastball led by the sinker. That pitch has eaten up right-handed hitters, who have posted a measly 79.8-mph average exit velocity and an average launch angle of -3-degrees.

As for the left-handers, they are seeing the four-seamer over half the time — and swinging and missing at a 38.5% clip against the pitch. Though they have made more solid contact against him than righties have, left-handed hitters are making contact at a lower rate.

All of this goes to show that, up until this point, Schlittler has proved to have little to no holes in his game. Forcing opposing hitters into weak contact, swings and misses, and finding success against batters from both sides of the plate.

The AL Cy Young Race

Schlittler’s ridiculous start has placed him firmly near the top of the American League Cy Young conversation, though the race remains crowded with several pitchers putting together impressive campaigns of their own.

While a number of starters have performed at a high level up to this point, two in particular along with Schlittler have established themselves as the frontrunners for the award.

First is Dylan Cease, who signed a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays this offseason. The early returns on that deal have been excellent. The hard-throwing right-hander has pitched 57.1 innings of 2.98-ERA ball up to this point.

The early success of Cease, paired with career high strikeout rates, has positioned him as one of the most valuable pitchers in the American League by fWAR. He is on pace to record 283 strikeouts, which would be the most in the AL since Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander both surpassed that total while finishing first and second in Cy Young voting in 2019.

Then there is Jacob deGrom, who, at age 37, continues to perform at an elite level. Now pitching for the Rangers, deGrom has a 3.02 ERA and 61 strikeouts across 50.2 innings this season. The key to his success this year is his 7.63 K/BB ratio that is at the top of the American League this season.

At his current pace, he will finish near the top of voting, though he has only eclipsed 100 innings pitched once since 2019.

As it currently stands, the betting odds via BetMGM favor Cam Schlittler (+130) to take home the award, followed closely by Dylan Cease (+320) and Jacob deGrom (+500). Beyond those three, the rest of the field has started to lose ground, though several pitchers remain in the mix as the season progresses.

Path to Victory

With the way he’s been going, it’s hard to argue that Cam Schlittler will regress to a point that removes him from Cy Young talks. He has proven capable of succeeding and dominating in nearly all aspects of the game. While it’s unlikely he will end his season with a historically low ERA similar to where it is now, metrics suggest his results are legitimate.

The only question that remains is whether or not he will pitch enough innings to win the award. Looking at previous years, he tossed 120.2 innings in the minor leagues. Then in 2025, he split time between the minors and bigs, totaling 149.2 innings that season. Since being drafted, he has been healthy and avoided spending time on the injured list even once.

However, he will likely need to exceed a career high in innings pitched, as volume is often an important piece to the Cy Young puzzle. Since the shortened 2020 season, only one pitcher has won a Cy Young while pitching less than 170 innings, and that was Corbin Burnes in 2021.

Continuing to produce at an elite level the rest of the way and pitching more than the 170 innings mark will give Schlittler the best shot at taking home the award. With the start he is off to, Cam Schlittler is in the thick of the Cy Young race and doing all the right things to ensure he remains there by the end of 2026.