The Rays Are Working Their Magic Again With New Closer

Death, taxes, and the Tampa Bay Rays taking toolsy arms and maximizing them to their fullest potential.

We’ve seen it on almost an annual basis for the better part of two decades. This year, that toolsy arm is right-handed closer Bryan Baker.

Baker, 31, debuted with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021. Then, he spent the next two and a half seasons as a leverage arm with the Baltimore Orioles. Last season, he began to truly take shape as a high-leverage arm, posting a 3.52 ERA with a 26.5% strikeout-minus-walk rate before getting traded to Tampa Bay last July.

He didn’t see the same success after the trade. In his 30.1 innings, he had a 4.75 ERA with nine holds, one save, and three blown saves. His command stayed sharp post-trade, but his strikeout numbers dipped to 27.6 percent.

But in a year where the Rays have defied expectations, the right-hander has had his fingerprints all over it. Replacing All-Star right-hander Pete Fairbanks, Baker has a 2.60 ERA with 11 saves across 17.1 innings.

His strikeouts are back up slightly — 28.6%. Entering his Wednesday outing, where he walked four and allowed one run in 0.2 innings, he had maintained his stellar command. That said, his rough Wednesday showing nearly doubled his walk rate.

The Rays are working their magic yet again, this time the 31-year-old is the beneficiary. With all that in mind, what’s worked so well for Baker overall in 2026?

Stats were taken prior to play on May 14.

Dramatic Increase In Changeup Usage

Sometimes it’s really as simple as throwing your best pitches more frequently. Since 2022, Baker’s changeup is one of the best in all of baseball.

The only year opponents hit above the Mendoza line against his changeup was 2024, where they hit .222. That year, he also only pitched 23.1 innings across 19 appearances; hardly a large enough sample to know if that offering was just worse that year.

In 2022, they hit .044 with a 37.7% whiff rate. In 2023, .120 with a 28.6% whiff. And in 2025, .128 with a 35.7% whiff.

Somehow, however, his 2026 changeup might be his best. Sure, it’s not his best season with opponent batting average against it. However, he entered Wednesday with 12 strikeouts on his changeup, a .121 batting average, and a whiff rate of 39.7%.

As mentioned, sometimes it’s as simple as throwing your best pitches more often. This year, he’s throwing it 45.6% of the time, up from what was a career-high 27.9% in 2025. While his fastball is an above-average offering, his changeup is his top out-getting pitch.

In terms of run value, his off-speed ranks in the 97th percentile. Compare that to his fastball, which is 76th percentile in run value, he’s got two weapons at his disposal to attack ninth innings.

Refined Command for a Reliever

Missing bats is a prerequisite nowadays for high-leverage arms, but just as important is not giving away free bases.

This isn’t to say relievers prone to walks can’t be successful. In fact, some of the best closers of the past decade come with an “effectively wild” reputation. That said, Baker is a high-leverage arm who hammers the strike zone. Entering play Wednesday, Baker ranked in the 89th percentile for zone rate.

Moreover, when he misses the zone, he still throws strikes, as he’s one of the best arms in the game at inducing chase. He entered Wednesday in the 78th percentile for chase rate.

Being around the zone more forces more swings, which in turn could create more hits. Baker, however, is elite at missing the barrel — and the bat in general. Entering Thursday, he ranked in the 82nd percentile for walk rate, 95th percentile for whiff rate and hard-hit rate, and 93rd percentile for barrel rate.

He hammers the zone, causes hitters to expand, and misses the barrel. All things, when combined, are a great recipe for building a track record as an elite pitcher.

Fastball Getting Great Results

While 96.8 mph is hardly slow, it’s not among the elite of the elite relief pitchers. That said, it’s getting elite level results to open 2026.

His fastball and changeup in tandem create tunneling opportunities that keep hitters off balance. Especially considering they’re thrown at near-identical rates, that lack of comfort the opposition has had this year has caused his fastball to improve dramatically from a season ago.

Last year, Baker’s four-seam had an opponent batting average of .270 against it. To go with that, they slugged .482 with an average exit velocity of 94.4 mph. This year, Baker entered Wednesday holding opponents to a .130 batting average and .174 slug on the four-seam.

Being a high-leverage reliever, he really only needs one elite offering to post great numbers. Having two sets you up for even greater success. That four-seam and changeup pairing gives him two of the best offerings among all relievers.

And it’s not that Baker has no history of success; it’s just never been as good as he’s been this year. That said, we shouldn’t be shocked, as this is what the Rays do. It appears every season they turn a good reliever into a great one. Recent years brought us Robert Stephenson, Edwin Uceta, and even Fairbanks.

This year? It appears that’s Bryan Baker.