The Guardians’ Rotation Could Keep Them Atop the AL Central

The Cleveland Guardians were one of the coolest, most improbable stories of the 2025 season. They proved the old Yogi Berra adage true: it ain’t over ’til it’s over.

The Guardians entered the final month of the season at third place in the AL Central and 10.5 games behind the division-leading Tigers. An incredible Cleveland run paired with an epic Detroit collapse would completely flip the script.

The Guardians would go 20-7 the rest of the way, not only securing a playoff spot but propelling them all the way to an AL Central title. They’d be knocked out of the postseason in the first round, oddly enough by the Tigers themselves, but they still treated fans to a wild and entertaining finish to the year.

Though Cleveland vastly outperformed their -5 run differential on the season, they did so on the back of an excellent pitching staff. The team’s combined 3.70 ERA was fourth in MLB and second in the AL behind only the Rangers.

The Guardians’ rotation was quite good, posting a 3.86 ERA as a unit. The bullpen, however, was even better, as their 3.44 ERA was third in MLB and second in the AL behind the Red Sox.

The thought was that 2026 would see much of the same. With the Guardians making only minor additions in the offseason, which is customary for the team, they’d mostly be running it back with the same young group as last year.

Despite being just under .500, they have themselves positioned for another run at the division. The Guardians are just a half game off the AL Central lead with a 15-16 record, once again out pacing a negative run differential (-10). The difference, though, is how the pitching staff results are shaking out.

Cleveland pitching hasn’t been quite as dominant, sitting 10th in MLB with a 3.90 ERA. But instead of the bullpen leading the way, it’s the starting rotation that’s been pacing things for the team early in the season. They’ve been so good, they could be what keeps the Guardians in the hunt this time around.

Stats were taken prior to play on April 29.

One of MLB’s Best Rotations Through the First Month

While the bullpen continues to find their footing, the rotation has been carrying the load for Cleveland’s pitching staff. The unit’s 3.64 ERA ranks sixth in MLB and third in the AL. Their 173 strikeouts lead all MLB rotations.

The Guardians’ rotation has a number of solid contributors to start the season. But every conversation about its success begins with the sensational rookie, Parker Messick.

Messick gave the team a big boost in their playoff push last year, pitching to a 2.72 ERA over seven late-season starts. Somehow, here in 2026, he has been even better.

The 25-year-old former second rounder has had a dominant start to the year as he’s given up just seven earned runs over his first six starts for a 1.73 ERA while holding batters to a miniscule .173 batting average. Cleveland has won five of the six games he has started.

Joining him with a strong start to their season is Gavin Williams. He took a huge step forward last year as Cleveland’s best starting pitcher on the season with a 3.06 ERA over 31 starts and, like Messick, might be even better in 2026.

Williams’ ERA is right in the same realm at 3.28 so far on the season, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been crushing opposing hitters. He’s held them to just a .163 average while his 31% strikeout rate is a 6.2% increase on his career average.

Left-hander Joey Cantillo has been similarly effective to start the season. After transitioning from reliever to starter last year, he’s continued to be a member of the rotation to start 2026 and has a 3.26 ERA through his first six starts.

While that trio has been quite excellent to start the year, Opening Day starter Tanner Bibee is still looking to settle in a bit. His 4.08 ERA isn’t horrible, but he’s been hit very hard as his 53.2% hard-hit rate and 93.1 mph average exit velocity are way down in the fifth and fourth percentile, respectively, per Baseball Savant.

That brings us to the five spot, which has been the one weak spot. Slade Cecconi has largely been rocked in his six starts, all Guardians losses, as he’s pitched to a 6.23 ERA and given up four or more runs in four of six appearances.

Cecconi will get the chance to live up to his 33rd overall pick pedigree for now without many challengers to his throne waiting in the wings. If he does, it’ll make an already potent Cleveland rotation even harder to attack.

None of this will matter, unless they start scoring runs. They’ve somehow declined to a 3.87 runs per game average in 2026, fourth worst in MLB.

There is plenty of time to turn that around, though, and any team with a strong starting rotation will have a chance to be competitive in the long run. The Guardians have just that, which means they also have a chance to repeat as division champs.