4 Early-Season Hot Takes (And How Much We Actually Believe Them)

There’s an art to crafting a good take. Part narrative. Part data. Part ball knowledge. The balance depends on how hot you want to go.

There’s also no better time for a good take than after a tiny sample in a sport played over 162 games. This is the window where every prior I had that’s been confirmed is clearly a result of my genius. And anything I’m wrong about? Small sample variance. Obviously.

It’s the perfect take creation window.

But not all takes are created equal. Some you plant your flag on. Some you throw out there for the love of the game. A take doesn’t have to be perfectly sound — it doesn’t even have to be right — but a good one builds a path to getting there. You can see the vision. You understand how it could come home.

That path either narrows or widens depending on where the take falls on the squint meter. A 0 on the squint meter is a vanilla take (Aaron Judge is good). A 10 on the squint meter is “I’d rather have Tim Tebow for a final drive than Aaron Rodgers.”

And if years of watching Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith have taught me anything, it’s how to craft a take.

So here are my four hottest through 16 games — and how much I actually believe them.

We’ll go coolest to hottest, Hot Ones style. Prepare accordingly.

Hot Take #1: Cam Smith will post a 6+ fWAR season … eventually

TLDR:
Smith looks like a star already — 149 wRC+, Gold Glove-caliber defense in right field, elite run times, and he’s already matched his entire 2025 fWAR in two weeks.

Swing+ is a hitter evaluation model created by Just Baseball’s Shaan Donohue that translates swing mechanics into expected performance. By modeling how swing traits like bat speed, path, and attack angle influence contact quality and bat-to-ball ability, Swing+ provides a clear, data-driven snapshot of a hitter’s offensive profile.

Hear me out:
This is a heater for a player with a real track record of being below average offensively — so why plant the flag now?

If you’ve listened to the Just Baseball Show or The Call Up, you know Aram Leighton has been on Smith for a while. He has consistently called out how great an athlete Smith is. Turns out the guy who skipped the minor leagues, learned a new position on the fly, and graded out as a Gold Glove-caliber right fielder… is a freak athlete.

Now that athleticism is showing up in the box.

Smith is sitting in the 98th percentile in bat speed — and he just turned 23. When you pair that with elite run times and high-end defensive value, you start to see a profile that can impact the game in every phase.

Here’s the list of players who rank top-10 in OAA, bat speed, and sprint speed through 15 games:

• Cam Smith

That’s the list.

But this isn’t just tools — the swing is changing in ways that actually matter. He’s getting to better angles, creating more natural lift without sacrificing contact, and the underlying batted ball profile is starting to reflect it. This is exactly the type of adjustment that turns raw ability into real offensive production.

And from a modeling perspective, the shift is meaningful. The expected outcomes are jumping — not because of variance, but because the inputs have changed. Better swing direction, better impact, better decisions. That’s the kind of signal that tends to stick.

Houston didn’t just get a good player in the Kyle Tucker deal — they may have landed a star for the next decade.

The kings stay the kings.

Squint Meter: 1.3. This is the breakout of a superstar and I am not sure we know how high the ceiling is yet.

Big deal. “First-round pick breaks out.” I’ve heard hotter takes waiting in line at CVS.

I promised some heat, so let’s turn it up a bit.

This next one’s a two-for-one heater on a preseason darling — they’re cooked, and it’s not for the reason you think.

Hot Take #2: Red Sox miss the postseason because of their offense

TLDR:
The Red Sox stink — 22nd in wRC+, 27th in FIP, and sitting at 6–11, last in the AL East. Garrett Crochet and Ranger Suárez have both been hit hard early, Roman Anthony and Jarren Duran are off to slow starts, and Wilyer Abreu is the lone bright spot carrying the offense.

Hear me out:
The Red Sox rotation hasn’t performed well early, but there are real pathways to stabilization. I’m willing to give Crochet a grace period given how dominant he can be at his best. Suárez has always run hot and cold, but over a full season he’s typically an above-average arm. There are enough pieces here for this staff to settle in. Sonny Gray and Connelly Early have both been solid, and if Crochet returns to form, that’s a legitimate front three in a postseason series.

The issue is that those same “irons in the fire” don’t exist on the offensive side.

This is the lineup.

It’s easy to point to a slow start from Roman Anthony as the root of the problem, but if the plan was dependent on a 21-year-old performing like a star in his first full season, that’s a fragile foundation. Jarren Duran is also off to a slow start, but his batted ball profile suggests he’ll get back to form.

That still leaves the core issue unchanged.

Caleb Durbin, Trevor Story, and Carlos Narváez are all playing everyday roles — and the highest wRC+ among that group is 22. That’s not a slump, that’s a lineup construction problem.

Willson Contreras, hit-by-pitch discourse aside, has been an excellent addition and one of the few reliable bats. Along with Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela, he’s one of just three qualified hitters on the roster with a wRC+ over 100.

Even if Anthony and Duran normalize, you’re still looking at four lineup spots where league-average production would be a significant upgrade.

There’s no obvious internal reinforcements coming, and unless a meaningful bat is added, this is an offense that’s going to continue to lag behind — especially in a division that doesn’t give you room to carry that kind of dead weight.

That’s why this is more concerning than the pitching. The rotation has ways to get better.

The offense might just be what it is.

Squint Meter: 5.5. There’s a world where the weather warms up and Boston rips off 14 out of 20 games, but as presently constructed I don’t think they get to average offensively.

That one gets the senses going. A little burn on the roof of your mouth — but the kind that mariachi music and tequila convince you is a good idea.

This next one’s a spicy meatball, no doubt about it. Maybe I’ve had a little too much Hembo Kool-Aid, I don’t know.

But it felt good off the hand… and I’m standing by it.

Hot Take #3: The Pittsburgh Pirates will be playing in the 2026 NLDS

TLDR:
The Pirates are atop the NL Central and scoring runs in a way they haven’t in a decade. Brandon Lowe has been a great addition, and Oneil Cruz is tapping into his superstar offensive upside. They still stink defensively — including those two — but it might not matter with this rotation. Bubba Chandler might have the best fastball in baseball, Braxton Ashcraft looks like a mid-rotation arm, Mitch Keller is as steady as it gets, Jared Jones is coming back, and… oh yeah, that Paul Skenes guy.

Hear me out:
The improvement in offensive talent across the lineup might be the biggest jump of any team in baseball. They’re consistently running out six average-or-better hitters — something that simply wasn’t true in past seasons. The path to this being a competent offense is clear, and for the first time in even longer, there’s real ceiling baked into it.

Is Cruz going to maintain 99th percentile power? Probably not, but the underlying traits are undeniable. When you pair his batted ball profile — which is already in a tier of its own — with even marginal improvements in contact, you’re looking at a player who can take a massive leap offensively.

The biggest variable is Konnor Griffin. The most likely outcome is that he looks like a teenager adjusting to the big leagues — something like an 80 wRC+ bat with plus defense at shortstop and value on the bases. That’s still a positive contributor. But if it clicks at any point in the second half, the impact could be significant. Griffin adjusted quickly to pro ball last year, and there’s reason to believe the version of him in April won’t be the version you see in September.

Even if the offense settles in around average, that’s enough — because of what they have on the mound.

The playoff path is simple. In a Wild Card series, they’ll have the best pitcher in any Game 1 with Skenes. In a short series, that matters more than anything. You’re effectively asking a team to win two out of three while facing a dominant ace once — that’s a massive advantage.

A healthy Jones gives them a legitimate No. 2. Keller is as steady as they come and fits comfortably in that next tier. Chandler is the x-factor — the kind of arm whose fastball can take over a game, especially with October adrenaline layered on top.

This isn’t a World Series roster. The top of the National League would likely overwhelm them over a full series. But that’s not the claim.

This is a team built to be dangerous in October — and capable of making a run similar to what the Twins did in 2023.

Squint Meter: 7.3. You have to be willing to dream a little, but the path exists especially if Griffin takes off.

You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts.

Some takes are worth throwing out there just for the chance to be right once — because if you are, that’s a banner you can hang forever.

Hot Take #4: Kevin McGonigle will finish top 5 in AL MVP voting

TLDR:
Just Baseball’s #2 prospect has arrived and is already producing in a way a player who never played above Double-A shouldn’t be capable of. McGonigle is walking more than he’s striking out, running a 164 wRC+, and took Sandy Alcantara deep for his first career homer. He’s already been the Tigers’ best hitter — and might be their best position player.

Swing+ is a hitter evaluation model created by Just Baseball’s Shaan Donohue that translates swing mechanics into expected performance. By modeling how swing traits like bat speed, path, and attack angle influence contact quality and bat-to-ball ability, Swing+ provides a clear, data-driven snapshot of a hitter’s offensive profile.

Hear me out:
McGonigle’s bat-to-ball skills have been well documented dating back to his amateur days, but what’s been under-discussed — unless you are a Call Up diehard — is the power.

He’s flashed high-end exit velocities, but what makes the power projection real is the consistency of his batted ball angles. When you pair that kind of contact ability with natural lift, you get a hitter who can produce impact without sacrificing consistency. He outperforms his expected contact rates by significant margin. That’s a rare combination, and it’s why he’s been able to step in and produce immediately.

The plate discipline raises the floor even further. Walking more than he strikes out at this stage — before turning 22 — is almost unheard of. And as he adjusts to big league pitching, those already elite swing decisions should only get sharper.

Put it all together and this is a profile that can realistically live in the 140 wRC+ range. That alone puts a player in the conversation.

Now layer in everything else.

He’s shown he can stick at shortstop and looks like a plus defender at third. He’s an excellent baserunner with the ability to swipe 30+ bags. Through 16 games, he’s already accumulated 0.8 fWAR — and the path to a 6+ WAR season isn’t difficult to map out from here.

That’s where the narrative comes in. If a rookie is even in the vicinity of that level of production, he’s going to show up on MVP ballots. And early on, there hasn’t been a true frontrunner that’s run away with the award.

It’s aggressive. It’s unlikely. But it’s not impossible.

Squint Meter: 8.7. This is an irresponsible take. Sugar before bedtime. Ice cream for breakfast. But when you are as special as Kevin McGonigle is you get people to say crazy things.

I’m a lot of things. A nerd (hence the model). A coach (high school). And, at this point, something of an expert in the art of the take.

Years of sports media consumption have gotten me my 10,000 hours, and these four takes are expertly crafted. You can poke holes, sure. But if I’ve done this right, you finish each one thinking, “I mean… I guess.”

And that’s the goal.

A good take doesn’t have to be airtight — it just has to build a path you can see. If you can visualize how it gets there, it has some merit.

The best part of the take game is looking back. You either laugh at how wrong you were or victory lap the few you get right.

Either way, you’ve got to put some takes out there for the love of the game.

Overconsumption of hot takes is hazardous to your health and not advised.