A Chase Burns Breakout Would Go a Long Way for the Reds

Heading into the 2026 Major League Baseball season, the Cincinnati Reds are one of the more intriguing teams in the National League. The squad is coming off a playoff berth in 2025 and is one of the league’s youngest teams with its current roster construction.

During the offseason, third baseman Eugenio Suarez reunited with his former club on a one-year deal, and the Reds added several other potential impact players, such as outfielder JJ Bleday and righty Pierce Johnson, among other noteworthy names.

They also possess one of the league’s strongest farm systems and will likely see contributions from several top prospects.

Even so, Cincinnati’s success will largely depend on one specific player: Chase Burns.

The 23-year-old pitcher has the skillset to be a future ace and will be one of the most important players for the Reds in 2026. If he can tap into his potential, the Reds will have a real shot at being one of the most competitive teams in a stacked National League landscape.

A Burns breakout really would go a long way for the Reds in getting over the hump. Let’s dive into his career up until this point and assess his outlook heading into 2026.

Chase Burns’ Road to the Big Leagues

Burns, drafted in the first round of the 2024 MLB draft, is one of the most electrifying arms to ever come out of college baseball. After spending his first two seasons with Tennessee, Burns spent his Junior season with Wake Forest, where he solidified himself as a force to be reckoned with on the mound.

By the time the draft rolled around that summer, scouts had been raving about Burns for months. In 100.0 innings pitched in 2024, he managed a 2.70 ERA, a 0.920 WHIP, and set the record for Wake Forest single-season strikeouts with 191.

The energetic right-hander also led the nation with a ridiculous 48.8% strikeout rate, starkly contrasted by a low 7.7% walk rate.

Upon his debut in professional baseball in 2025, there was no slowing down for Burns. He rocketed through the minor leagues, where he pitched to a 1.77 ERA in 66.0 innings split across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. During that stretch, Burns struck out 89 batters, held opponents to a .167 batting average against, and pitched to a 0.77 WHIP.

Chase Burns’ Limited MLB Sample

Burns was quickly promoted to the major leagues after his dominant stretch in the minors, making his debut on June 24, 2025, against the New York Yankees. In that outing, he managed to strike out the first five batters he faced, the most by any pitcher in their debut in the Expansion Era (since 1961). By season’s end, Burns had thrown 43.1 innings at the big-league level.

Across 13 games, eight of which he started, Burns managed a 4.57 ERA and 1.4 fWAR. Though his ERA doesn’t suggest it, Burns was pretty dominant during his stint. Opposing hitters were somewhat lucky, owning a .360 BABIP against the young right-hander. Expected statistics took this into account, with a 3.46 xERA and 2.68 xFIP looking much more favorable upon Burns.

That trend continues with Burns’ strikeout numbers. In his 13-game tenure in the big leagues, Burns struck out opposing hitters 35.6% of the time and punched out 67 in total. He also limited the free pass, walking opponents just 8.5% of the time, good for a well-above-average 27.1% K-BB%.

That dominance can be attributed to a well-above-average pitch mix, headlined by one of the league’s best fastballs.

In 2025, Burns averaged 98.7 mph on his four-seam, landing him in the 97th percentile among all qualified pitchers. He also induced 18.1 inches of vertical break on the offering, with the ride leading to lots of swings and misses; opposing hitters whiffed 25.2% against the pitch. For context, Tarik Skubal’s four-seam induced a 28.7% whiff rate.

When all was said and done in 2025, Burns threw the four-seam 57.6% of the time and tallied a 4 RVAL (run-value) with his main pitch.

The four-seam is supplemented by Burns’ slider, which he threw 33.8% of the time in 2025. Opposing hitters hit .197 against the offering, whiffed 43.9% of the time, and were held to just a .234 xWOBA.

Following suit in his arsenal are the changeup (5.6%), curveball (1.7%), and sinker (1.0%), which weren’t thrown enough in 2025 to draw any meaningful conclusions.

He has yet to scratch the surface of what he is capable of as a big-league arm, and he will be in the thick of the battle for the Reds’ fifth rotation spot heading into 2026.

Chase Burns’ 2026 Outlook

It’s hard not to be excited about what Chase Burns might accomplish in 2026. He has plenty of ace potential and is one of the more exciting arms to watch in the current MLB landscape.

For the Reds, it’s imperative that Burns is actually able to tap into that potential. They already have a strong rotation, headlined by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, but a Chase Burns breakout could truly put them over the top as one of the league’s best when healthy.

Let’s not be overly optimistic, though. It’s entirely possible that Burns doesn’t reach his ace potential in 2026, and that’s okay! All he need to do is continue pitching at the level he did in 2025, and the Reds will be in a great spot to make another playoff run in 2026.