Predicting the BBWAA Hall of Fame Class of 2028
A pair of Cardinals legends will debut on the ballot in two years' time, and both have a strong case to enter the Hall in their first year of eligibility.
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The National Baseball Hall of Fame will gain three new members this summer. Jeff Kent was chosen by the Contemporary Baseball Era committee at the Winter Meetings, while center fielders Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones finally crossed the 75% threshold on the BBWAA ballot last month.
With the Class of 2026 decided, Just Baseball is looking ahead to future years. This is the second entry in a series projecting who could earn induction in the next five cycles of BBWAA Hall of Fame voting.
These next five years will feature some no-doubt candidates, including a couple of players who should get in unanimously, but just as fascinating are the players with on-the-fence cases who will surely spark lively debate.
Full Series
Predicting the 2028 BBWAA HoF Class
Holdover Electees: Chase Utley
Though 2027 may not be the year for Chase Utley, it’s clear that his time is coming sooner or later.
The 2025 Classic Baseball Era committee selection of Dick Allen broke the unofficial “Rule of 2,000 hits,” and the 2026 Contemporary Era committee selection of Jeff Kent inducted a second baseman with an overall weaker body of work.
| Player | AVG/OBP/SLG | bWAR/Peak WAR/JAWS | dWAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Utley | .275/.358/.465 | 64.6/49.3/56.9 | 17.4 |
| Jeff Kent | .290/.356/.500 | 55.4/35.8/45.6 | -0.1 |
Some old-school voters may be turned off by Utley’s lack of traditional counting numbers, but his decade-long stretch as the National League’s best player this side of Albert Pujols should garner enough support to push him over the 75% mark by 2027.
First-Ballot Electees: Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina
Could Albert Pujols be the first position player to earn unanimous induction into the Hall of Fame? There certainly doesn’t seem to be any legitimate reason to withhold a vote for the most valuable position player of the 21st century, but considering Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki failed to reach the coveted 100% threshold, you can never be too sure.
Pujols’ presence on the ballot will also provide a boost to longtime teammate Yadier Molina, who will seek to become the second straight catcher to earn induction on his first ballot.
While Molina was not nearly the same hitter as Buster Posey (a presumptive first-ballot Hall of Famer in 2027), trailing his NL rival in OPS+ 129 to 96, he was, by any measure, a far greater defender.
Molina boasted a 27.6 to 10.1 dWAR advantage and won nine Gold Gloves to Posey’s one. And though Molina was never among the best hitters in the game, he was far from a liability with the bat, particularly during a three-year stretch from 2011-2013 in which he slashed .313/.361/.481.
Although hit totals can be somewhat misleading (see Vizquel, Omar), Molina’s total of 2,168 is the fifth-highest mark all-time among catchers, a credit to his consistency and durability.
With an argument to be called one of the best defensive catchers of all time, a number of productive offensive seasons, a pair of World Series championships, and the presence of a legendary teammate on the ballot to aid him, I expect Molina to exceed the 76.1% vote share Joe Mauer got in his first year of eligibility.
First-Years Above 5%: David Price, Robinson Canó
While the pair of Cardinals greats will garner most of the attention, two other players will debut on this ballot who are worth taking a look at.
By traditional measures, David Price‘s 40.4 bWAR, 157 wins, and 2,076 strikeouts indicate that he falls well short of Cooperstown, yet the changing Hall of Fame standards among starting pitchers could work in his favor.
While not quite as dominant in his peak, Price’s overall resume is fairly similar to that of the ascending Félix Hernández:
| Player | W-L | ERA (ERA+) | IP | K | WHIP | bWAR/Peak WAR/JAWS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Price | 157-82 | 3.32 (123) | 2143.2 | 2076 | 1.16 | 40.4/31.6/35.9 |
| Félix Hernández | 169-132 | 3.42 (117) | 2.749.2 | 2524 | 1.20 | 49.8/38.5/44.1 |
| Player | ASG Selections | ERA Titles | Cy Youngs |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Price | 5 | 2 | 1 (2012) |
| Félix Hernández | 6 | 2 | 1 (2010) |
While Price was ultimately able to redeem himself during the Red Sox’s postseason run in 2018, his overall postseason performance (5-8, 4.62) had more bad than good, and he was essentially done as a productive pitcher by age 33.
I expect him to hang around for a while, possibly for all 10 years of eligibility, but never really threaten the 75% threshold.
On the flip side, Robinson Canó is clearly deserving of Cooperstown based solely on on-field performance.
His 59.0 JAWS is the seventh-highest total all-time among second basemen, while only old-timers Charlie Gehringer (10) and Eddie Collins (seven) had more top-10 MVP finishes than Canó’s six.
Unfortunately for Canó, none of that will really matter in the shadow of his two PED suspensions, including a 162-game punishment in 2021.
The fact that Alex Rodriguez, a far superior player who was also suspended for an entire season, barely topped a 40% vote share in his fifth year of eligibility likely means that Canó’s candidacy is dead on arrival.
Falling Off: Andy Pettitte
As I wrote about in my mock ballot article, the recent election of CC Sabathia has provided a late boost to Andy Pettitte‘s Hall of Fame case, but it may be too little, too late.
He will still need to gain 26.5% over his final two years on the ballot, and there might still be too many voters scared off by his high ERA and his steroid use. He will likely top out around the 60-65% mark, making him a prime era committee candidate in a future year.
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Daniel Fox is a contributing writer for Just Baseball. He has previously written for Pitcher List, BoSoxInjection, and in the Cape Cod Baseball League. He is…